TableChase Clubs

Legends FC

ECNL Regional League Boys · NorCal BU16 · 24 teams · Legends FC (SJ) (all teams)

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22nd
0-1-6 record · 7 played
0.14 points per game
-18 goal diff · 3–21
LLLDLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 21.0
+0.88 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:35 PM

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Legends FC
22nd · 0.14 PPG
vs
Solano Surf
23rd · 0.00 PPG

Andrew Hill High School, Turf ↗ · turf

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 1–0 (expected goals 1.7 for, 0.9 against · 1.89 expected points)

Season so farLegends FCSolano Surf
Position22nd23rd
Record (W-D-L)0-1-60-0-7
Points per game0.140.00
Goals for / game0.40.1
Goals against / game3.03.4
Clean sheets00
Held scoreless46
Form (recent first)L D L L LL L L L L
Biggest win——
Worst loss0–4 vs South Valley United Soccer Club0–7 at Union FC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-1.46-2.18
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.88+0.47

Common opponents: FC Fresno Academy — we 0–4; they 0–3. Sheriffs FC — we 1–2; they 1–2.

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    Solano Surf average 0.1 goals/game (league avg 1.9); blanked in 6 of 7.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    Solano Surf concede 3.4/game; worst result 0–7 at Union FC.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 4 time(s): 0–4 vs South Valley United Soccer Club, 0–4 at FC Fresno Academy, 0–4 at Clovis Crossfire, 0–2 at Albany Berkeley Soccer Club.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 55% / draw 24% / loss 21%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Confidence is low on their side
    Solano Surf have lost 7 straight (form: LLLLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

  • What a win does
    Livermore Fusion SCECNL RL sit 21st on 0.43 PPG; we are on 0.14.

    A point moves us above Livermore Fusion SCECNL RL on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Solano Surf game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Legends FC – Solano Surf) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 11 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 0.50 PPG
21st▲ up 1 21st▲ up 1 22nd— holds
Win
0.50 PPG
21st▲ up 1 21st▲ up 1 22nd— holds
Draw
0.25 PPG
22nd— holds 22nd— holds 23rd▼ down 1
Loss
0.13 PPG
23rd▼ down 1 23rd▼ down 1 24th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–0 win we finish as high as 21st if every rival drops points, and as low as 22nd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
21.0 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th <1%
  16. 16th <1%
  17. 17th 1%
  18. 18th 2%
  19. 19th 15%
  20. 20th 20%
  21. 21st 21%
  22. 22nd 23%
  23. 23rd 18%
  24. 24th 1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 1.75 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Reno APEX Soccer Club 2.43 (+2.29) 1st (2.21) 38 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Walnut Creek Surf 2.43 (+2.29) 3rd (2.17) 38 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Albany Berkeley Soccer Club 2.29 (+2.15) 4th (2.11) 36 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 Central Valley Premier FC -RL 2.29 (+2.15) 9th (1.73) 36 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
5 Clovis Crossfire 2.14 (+2.00) 2nd (2.18) 34 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
6 Stockton TLJ FC 2.00 (+1.86) 5th (2.03) 31 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
7 South Valley United Soccer Club 2.00 (+1.86) 6th (1.92) 31 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
8 Diablo Valley Futbol Club 2.00 (+1.86) 7th (1.92) 31 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
9 Cent. California Soccer Alliance 1.86 (+1.72) 8th (1.88) 29 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
10 Sheriffs FC 1.86 (+1.72) 13th (1.53) 29 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
11 SF United FC 1.57 (+1.43) 10th (1.64) 25 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
12 FC Fresno Academy 1.57 (+1.43) 11th (1.57) 25 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
13 Vacaville United Soccer Club 1.57 (+1.43) 15th (1.49) 25 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection
14 East Bay United 1.29 (+1.15) 14th (1.50) 20 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection
15 Union FC 1.14 (+1.00) 12th (1.53) 18 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
16 Turlock Academica Jrs 1.14 (+1.00) 16th (1.37) 18 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
17 San Ramon FC -RL 1.14 (+1.00) 17th (1.20) 18 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
18 Dnamo FC Delta 0.86 (+0.72) 18th (1.06) 13 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection
19 East County Revolution FC 0.71 (+0.57) 21st (0.56) 11 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 8 for their projection
20 Stanford Strikers 0.57 (+0.43) 20th (0.57) 9 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 9 for their projection
21 Livermore Fusion SCECNL RL 0.43 (+0.29) 19th (0.66) A point next game

How the results connect

13 chains · 13 teams

Paths of results that link Legends FC to Solano Surf through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

4 favour us
4 even
5 favour them
+0.8 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–2 2–1 0–4 3–0 0–0 1–0 0–4 0–0 4–0 1–1 1–4 2–2 2–0 0–4 3–1 2–2 1–1 2–0 1–1 7–0 6–1 0–4 5–0 Legends FC 22nd Sheriffs FC 10th FC Fresno Academy 12th Clovis Crossfire 5th Central Valley Prem… 4th South Valley United… 7th Diablo Valley Futbo… 8th Stanford Strikers 20th SF United FC 11th Walnut Creek Surf 2nd Union FC 15th Reno APEX Soccer Cl… 1st Solano Surf 23rd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 12th 24th Aug 15 Aug 22 Sep 19 Oct 3 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.21 · 19th hardest of 24

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
01:35 PM
Solano Surf
23rd · 0-0-7 · GD -23
Home
Andrew Hill High School · turf
●●●○○ Toss-up
55%
1–0 1.89 0.36 Swing game
Sat Oct 31
03:15 PM
Cent. California Soccer Alliance
9th · 3-4-0 · GD +18
Home
Andrew Hill High School · turf
●●●●● Very tough
4%
0–3 0.21 0.34 Upside
Sat Nov 7
02:35 PM
East Bay United
14th · 3-0-4 · GD +12
Home
Andrew Hill High School · turf
●●●●● Very tough
7%
1–3 0.31 0.34 Upside
Sat Mar 13
02:00 PM
Turlock Academica Jrs
16th · 2-2-3 · GD +0
Away far trip
Academica Fields · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
12%
0–2 0.52 0.36 Upside
Sat Apr 3
TBD
Stanford Strikers
20th · 1-1-5 · GD -14
Away
●●●●○ Tough
33%
1–1 1.28 0.43 Upside
Sat Apr 10
01:25 PM
Vacaville United Soccer Club
13th · 3-2-2 · GD +2
Home
Andrew Hill High School · turf
●●●●● Very tough
13%
0–2 0.58 0.45 Upside
Sat Apr 17
01:25 PM
Livermore Fusion SCECNL RL
21st · 1-0-6 · GD -15
Home
Andrew Hill High School · turf
●●●●○ Tough
38%
1–1 1.39 0.51 Upside
Sun Apr 25
12:25 PM
Union FC
15th · 2-2-3 · GD +7
Away far trip
Larchmont Community Park
●●●●● Very tough
6%
0–3 0.30 0.50 Upside
Sat May 1
12:00 PM
San Ramon FC -RL
17th · 2-2-3 · GD -2
Away far trip
San Ramon Sports Park - Tiffany Roberts
●●●●● Very tough
15%
0–2 0.63 0.51 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Reno APEX Soccer Club 7520 195+14 172.43 WDWWW -0.12 -0.13 78% 3.1
2 Walnut Creek Surf 7520 198+11 172.43 WWDWW +0.06 -0.10 65% 3.9
3 Albany Berkeley Soccer Club 7511 175+12 162.29 WWWWW -0.30 -0.20 55% 4.5
4 Central Valley Premier FC -RL 7511 1911+8 162.29 WLWWW -0.22 +0.53 7% 9.7
5 Clovis Crossfire 7430 252+23 152.14 WWWDW -0.83 +0.44 74% 3.3
6 Stockton TLJ FC 7421 216+15 142.00 WWWDL -0.21 -0.13 45% 5.2
7 South Valley United Soccer Club 7421 168+8 142.00 LWDDW +0.66 -0.44 23% 6.8
8 Diablo Valley Futbol Club 7421 158+7 142.00 WDLDW +0.05 -0.57 23% 6.8
9 Cent. California Soccer Alliance 7340 246+18 131.86 DDDWW -0.76 +0.47 23% 7.1
10 Sheriffs FC 7412 117+4 131.86 LWWWL -0.61 +0.58 1% 12.5
11 SF United FC 7322 136+7 111.57 WLLDW +0.18 +0.22 3% 10.8
12 FC Fresno Academy 7322 1410+4 111.57 DLDWW -0.10 -0.11 1% 11.8
13 Vacaville United Soccer Club 7322 1210+2 111.57 DLDWL +0.31 +0.18 0% 13.0
14 East Bay United 7304 2614+12 91.29 LWWLW -0.55 +0.22 1% 12.5
15 Union FC 7223 169+7 81.14 DWWLL -0.30 -0.20 1% 12.1
16 Turlock Academica Jrs 7223 1212+0 81.14 LDLDL +0.16 -0.52 0% 14.4
17 San Ramon FC -RL 7223 1113-2 81.14 LDWDW -0.54 -0.13 0% 16.2
18 Dnamo FC Delta 7205 1018-8 60.86 WWLLL +0.66 -0.05 0% 17.4
19 East County Revolution FC 7124 734-27 50.71 LDLDL +0.17 +0.30 0% 20.9
20 Stanford Strikers 7115 317-14 40.57 WLLLL +0.20 +0.30 0% 20.6
21 Livermore Fusion SCECNL RL 7106 621-15 30.43 LLLLL +0.17 -0.26 0% 19.9
22 Legends FC 7016 321-18 10.14 LLLDL +0.88 -0.21 0% 21.0
23 Solano Surf 7007 124-23 00.00 LLLLL +0.47 -0.52 0% 22.4
24 South Valley Chivas 7007 247-45 00.00 LLLLL +0.52 +0.30 0% 23.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.87 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.