San Diego Surf
ECNL Girls · Southwest GU14 · 17 teams · San Diego Surf Soccer Club (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:00 AM
Pleasant Valley Fields, Field 19 ↗ far trip
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 2.0 for, 1.6 against · 1.60 expected points)
| Season so far | San Diego Surf | Eagles SC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 6th | 11th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-1-0 | 1-0-2 |
| Points per game | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / game | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| Goals against / game | 1.0 | 3.0 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | D W | W L L |
| Biggest win | 2–1 vs Utah Royals FC-AZ | 3–1 at LAFC |
| Worst loss | — | 1–5 vs Legends FC |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.04 | -0.59 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -1.06 | +0.10 |
Game plan
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They leak goals — be greedy
Eagles SC concede 3.0/game; worst result 1–5 vs Legends FC.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 46% / draw 22% / loss 32%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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Away game
Kickoff 11:00 AM at Pleasant Valley Fields.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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What a win does
SLAMMERS FC sit 5th on 2.20 PPG; we are on 2.00.A point moves us above SLAMMERS FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Eagles SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (San Diego Surf – Eagles SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.67 PPG |
6th— holds | 7th▼ down 1 | 8th▼ down 2 |
| Win 2.33 PPG |
4th▲ up 2 | 5th▲ up 1 | 6th— holds |
| Draw 1.67 PPG |
6th— holds | 7th▼ down 1 | 8th▼ down 2 |
| Loss 1.33 PPG |
8th▼ down 2 | 10th▼ down 4 | 13th▼ down 7 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 6th even if every rival loses, and as low as 8th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd <1%
- 3rd 2%
- 4th 4%
- 5th 9%
- 6th 22%
- 7th 18%
- 8th 14%
- 9th 11%
- 10th 7%
- 11th 5%
- 12th 3%
- 13th 2%
- 14th 1%
- 15th 1%
- 16th 1%
- 17th <1%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 14 remaining known games (max 2.88 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Slammers FC HB Koge | 3.00 (+1.00) | 1st (2.74) | 44 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 40 for their projection |
| 2 | Blues | 3.00 (+1.00) | 4th (2.03) | 44 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection |
| 3 | Beach Futbol Club | 2.50 (+0.50) | 2nd (2.17) | 36 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection |
| 4 | Legends FC | 2.25 (+0.25) | 3rd (2.15) | A point next game |
| 5 | SLAMMERS FC | 2.20 (+0.20) | 5th (1.99) | A point next game |
How the results connect
2 chains · 6 teams
Paths of results that link San Diego Surf to Eagles SC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
10 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.14 · 3rd hardest of 17
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 11:00 AM |
Eagles SC 11th · 1-0-2 · GD -4 |
Away far trip
Pleasant Valley Fields |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 46% |
1–1 | 1.60 | 1.87 | Swing game |
| Sat Oct 31 01:00 PM |
Rebels SC 8th · 1-1-1 · GD -4 |
Home Surf Sports Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 55% |
2–1 | 1.85 | 1.86 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 7 01:00 PM |
Legends FC Del Mar 16th · 0-1-2 · GD -7 |
Home Surf Sports Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 66% |
2–1 | 2.16 | 1.92 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 21 TBD |
Arizona Arsenal 9th · 1-1-2 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 33% |
1–1 | 1.21 | 1.80 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 22 TBD |
Phoenix Rising FC 10th · 1-0-2 · GD -3 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 48% |
1–1 | 1.66 | 1.78 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 21 01:00 PM |
Beach Futbol Club 3rd · 3-1-0 · GD +9 |
Home Surf Sports Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 24% |
1–2 | 0.92 | 1.67 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 28 05:30 PM |
Slammers FC HB Koge 1st · 4-0-0 · GD +24 |
Away far trip
Saddleback College · turf |
●●●●● Very tough | 4% |
0–3 | 0.18 | 1.51 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 01:00 PM |
Legends FC 4th · 3-0-1 · GD +11 |
Home Surf Sports Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 19% |
1–2 | 0.78 | 1.44 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 01:00 PM |
SLAMMERS FC 5th · 3-2-0 · GD +8 |
Home Surf Sports Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 27% |
1–1 | 1.04 | 1.40 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 01:00 PM |
LV Heat Surf 14th · 1-1-3 · GD -8 |
Home Surf Sports Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 63% |
2–0 | 2.10 | 1.46 | Swing game |
| Sat May 1 TBD |
LAFC 7th · 2-0-2 · GD -1 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 38% |
1–1 | 1.34 | 1.45 | Upside |
| Sat May 8 09:00 AM |
LA Breakers FC 15th · 1-0-3 · GD -6 |
Away far trip
Bell Gardens Sports Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 48% |
1–1 | 1.67 | 1.46 | Swing game |
| Sat May 22 TBD |
Pateadores Soccer Club 12th · 1-0-2 · GD -7 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 52% |
2–1 | 1.77 | 1.49 | Swing game |
| Sun May 23 01:00 PM |
Blues 2nd · 2-0-0 · GD +4 |
Home Surf Sports Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 27% |
1–1 | 1.06 | 1.46 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Slammers FC HB Koge | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 0 | +24 | 12 | 3.00 | WWWW | -0.93 | +0.05 | 100% | 1.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs SLAMMERS FC · Sat Oct 31 vs LAFC · Sat Nov 7 vs Eagles SC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Blues | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | +4 | 6 | 3.00 | WW | -0.08 | -0.05 | 62% | 4.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs LV Heat Surf · Sat Oct 31 at Pateadores Soccer Club · Sat Nov 7 vs Beach Futbol Club See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Beach Futbol Club | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 5 | +9 | 10 | 2.50 | WWWD | +0.10 | -0.03 | 84% | 3.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 vs Legends FC · Sat Oct 31 vs Legends FC Del Mar · Sat Nov 7 at Blues See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Legends FC | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 2 | +11 | 9 | 2.25 | WLWW | -0.66 | +0.08 | 83% | 3.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 at Beach Futbol Club · Sat Oct 24 vs Rebels SC · Sat Nov 7 at LAFC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | SLAMMERS FC | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 11 | 2.20 | WDWWD | -0.19 | +0.01 | 58% | 4.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Slammers FC HB Koge · Sat Oct 31 at LA Breakers FC · Sat Nov 21 vs Eagles SC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | San Diego Surf | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 4 | 2.00 | WD | -1.06 | +0.14 | 5% | 7.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Eagles SC · Sat Oct 31 vs Rebels SC · Sat Nov 7 vs Legends FC Del Mar See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | LAFC | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 6 | 1.50 | LLWW | -0.14 | +0.04 | 2% | 8.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at LA Breakers FC · Sat Oct 31 at Slammers FC HB Koge · Sat Nov 7 vs Legends FC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Rebels SC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 4 | 1.33 | WLD | +0.72 | -0.13 | 1% | 10.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Legends FC · Sat Oct 31 at San Diego Surf · Sat Nov 21 at Beach Futbol Club See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Arizona Arsenal | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 7 | +0 | 4 | 1.00 | LLDW | +0.06 | -0.06 | 3% | 7.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 8 vs LA Breakers FC · Sat Nov 21 vs San Diego Surf · Sat Dec 12 vs Utah Royals FC-AZ See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Phoenix Rising FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 3 | 1.00 | WLL | -0.50 | +0.16 | 0% | 12.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Legends FC Del Mar · Sat Oct 31 at Sporting California USA · Sun Nov 1 at Eagles SC See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Eagles SC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 3 | 1.00 | LLW | +0.10 | +0.01 | 0% | 10.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 vs Sporting California USA · Sat Oct 24 vs San Diego Surf · Sun Nov 1 vs Phoenix Rising FC See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Pateadores Soccer Club | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 3 | 1.00 | LWL | +0.57 | -0.08 | 0% | 12.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs LV Heat Surf · Sat Oct 31 vs Blues · Sat Nov 7 vs Sporting California USA See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | Utah Royals FC-AZ | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 4 | 0.80 | LLDWL | -0.18 | +0.20 | 0% | 11.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Legends FC Del Mar · Sat Nov 7 vs LA Breakers FC · Sat Dec 12 at Arizona Arsenal See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 14 | LV Heat Surf | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 11 | -8 | 4 | 0.80 | WLDLL | +0.14 | +0.03 | 0% | 13.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Pateadores Soccer Club · Sun Oct 25 at Blues · Sat Nov 21 vs Sporting California USA See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 15 | LA Breakers FC | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 3 | 0.75 | LLWL | +0.72 | -0.16 | 0% | 12.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs LAFC · Sat Oct 31 vs SLAMMERS FC · Sat Nov 7 at Utah Royals FC-AZ See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 16 | Legends FC Del Mar | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 9 | -7 | 1 | 0.33 | LDL | +0.17 | +0.04 | 0% | 14.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Phoenix Rising FC · Sun Oct 25 at Utah Royals FC-AZ · Sat Oct 31 at Beach Futbol Club See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 17 | Sporting California USA | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 15 | -14 | 1 | 0.25 | LLDL | +1.33 | -0.46 | 0% | 15.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 at Eagles SC · Sat Oct 31 vs Phoenix Rising FC · Sat Nov 7 at Pateadores Soccer Club See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.89 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.