LV Heat Surf
ECNL Girls · Southwest GU14 · 17 teams · LV Heat Surf SC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 02:00 PM
Orange County Great Park, Field 8 ↗ far trip
●●●●○ Tough to win
Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.5 for, 2.0 against · 1.06 expected points)
| Season so far | LV Heat Surf | Pateadores Soccer Club |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 14th | 12th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-1-3 | 1-0-2 |
| Points per game | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / game | 0.6 | 1.3 |
| Goals against / game | 2.2 | 3.7 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 3 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | L L D L W | L W L |
| Biggest win | 1–0 vs LA Breakers FC | 3–1 at Eagles SC |
| Worst loss | 0–3 at Phoenix Rising FC | 0–7 vs Slammers FC HB Koge |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.99 | -0.93 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.14 | +0.57 |
Common opponents: LA Breakers FC — we 1–0; they 1–3.
Game plan
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They leak goals — be greedy
Pateadores Soccer Club concede 3.7/game; worst result 0–7 vs Slammers FC HB Koge.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–3 at Phoenix Rising FC, 0–3 vs Legends FC, 0–3 vs SLAMMERS FC.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 28%; a draw (22%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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Away game
Kickoff 02:00 PM at Orange County Great Park.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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What a win does
Utah Royals FC-AZ sit 13th on 0.80 PPG; we are on 0.80.A point moves us above Utah Royals FC-AZ on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Pateadores Soccer Club game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (LV Heat Surf – Pateadores Soccer Club) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.67 PPG |
15th▼ down 1 | 14th— holds | 16th▼ down 2 |
| Win 1.17 PPG |
9th▲ up 5 | 10th▲ up 4 | 14th— holds |
| Draw 0.83 PPG |
13th▲ up 1 | 14th— holds | 16th▼ down 2 |
| Loss 0.67 PPG |
15th▼ down 1 | 14th— holds | 16th▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 14th even if every rival loses, and as low as 16th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th <1%
- 7th 1%
- 8th 2%
- 9th 3%
- 10th 3%
- 11th 7%
- 12th 10%
- 13th 12%
- 14th 15%
- 15th 18%
- 16th 18%
- 17th 11%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.31 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Slammers FC HB Koge | 3.00 (+2.20) | 1st (2.74) | 44 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 40 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Blues | 3.00 (+2.20) | 4th (2.03) | 44 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection |
| 3 | Beach Futbol Club | 2.50 (+1.70) | 2nd (2.17) | 36 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection |
| 4 | Legends FC | 2.25 (+1.45) | 3rd (2.15) | 32 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection |
| 5 | SLAMMERS FC | 2.20 (+1.40) | 5th (1.99) | 32 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection |
| 6 | San Diego Surf | 2.00 (+1.20) | 6th (1.46) | 28 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection |
| 7 | LAFC | 1.50 (+0.70) | 7th (1.43) | 20 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection |
| 8 | Rebels SC | 1.33 (+0.53) | 9th (1.19) | 18 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection |
| 9 | Arizona Arsenal | 1.00 (+0.20) | 8th (1.43) | A point next game |
| 10 | Phoenix Rising FC | 1.00 (+0.20) | 14th (0.99) | A point next game |
| 11 | Eagles SC | 1.00 (+0.20) | 10th (1.14) | A point next game |
| 12 | Pateadores Soccer Club | 1.00 (+0.20) | 13th (1.02) | A point next game |
| 13 | Utah Royals FC-AZ | 0.80 (+0.00) | 11th (1.05) | Already ahead |
How the results connect
3 chains · 6 teams
Paths of results that link LV Heat Surf to Pateadores Soccer Club through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
10 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.03 · 8th hardest of 17
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 02:00 PM |
Pateadores Soccer Club 12th · 1-0-2 · GD -7 |
Away far trip
Orange County Great Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 28% |
1–2 | 1.06 | 0.84 | Upside |
| Sun Oct 25 11:00 AM |
Blues 2nd · 2-0-0 · GD +4 |
Away far trip
OC Great Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 9% |
0–2 | 0.43 | 0.78 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 21 04:00 PM |
Sporting California USA 17th · 0-1-3 · GD -14 |
Home Heritage Park Sports Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 51% |
1–1 | 1.78 | 0.91 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 20 TBD |
Rebels SC 8th · 1-1-1 · GD -4 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 23% |
1–1 | 0.92 | 0.91 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 21 TBD |
Legends FC Del Mar 16th · 0-1-2 · GD -7 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 33% |
1–1 | 1.25 | 0.94 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 TBD |
LAFC 7th · 2-0-2 · GD -1 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 24% |
1–2 | 0.93 | 0.94 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
Eagles SC 11th · 1-0-2 · GD -4 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 31% |
1–1 | 1.16 | 0.96 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 01:00 PM |
San Diego Surf 6th · 1-1-0 · GD +1 |
Away far trip
Surf Sports Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 16% |
0–2 | 0.70 | 0.94 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 25 TBD |
Slammers FC HB Koge 1st · 4-0-0 · GD +24 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 1% |
0–4 | 0.05 | 0.88 | Upside |
| Sat May 1 TBD |
Beach Futbol Club 3rd · 3-1-0 · GD +9 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 9% |
0–2 | 0.41 | 0.85 | Upside |
| Sat May 22 TBD |
Arizona Arsenal 9th · 1-1-2 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 21% |
1–1 | 0.84 | 0.85 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Slammers FC HB Koge | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 0 | +24 | 12 | 3.00 | WWWW | -0.93 | +0.05 | 100% | 1.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs SLAMMERS FC · Sat Oct 31 vs LAFC · Sat Nov 7 vs Eagles SC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Blues | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | +4 | 6 | 3.00 | WW | -0.08 | -0.05 | 62% | 4.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs LV Heat Surf · Sat Oct 31 at Pateadores Soccer Club · Sat Nov 7 vs Beach Futbol Club See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Beach Futbol Club | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 5 | +9 | 10 | 2.50 | WWWD | +0.10 | -0.03 | 85% | 3.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 vs Legends FC · Sat Oct 31 vs Legends FC Del Mar · Sat Nov 7 at Blues See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Legends FC | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 2 | +11 | 9 | 2.25 | WLWW | -0.66 | +0.08 | 82% | 3.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 at Beach Futbol Club · Sat Oct 24 vs Rebels SC · Sat Nov 7 at LAFC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | SLAMMERS FC | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 11 | 2.20 | WDWWD | -0.19 | +0.01 | 60% | 4.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Slammers FC HB Koge · Sat Oct 31 at LA Breakers FC · Sat Nov 21 vs Eagles SC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | San Diego Surf | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 4 | 2.00 | WD | -1.06 | +0.14 | 6% | 7.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Eagles SC · Sat Oct 31 vs Rebels SC · Sat Nov 7 vs Legends FC Del Mar See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | LAFC | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 6 | 1.50 | LLWW | -0.14 | +0.04 | 3% | 7.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at LA Breakers FC · Sat Oct 31 at Slammers FC HB Koge · Sat Nov 7 vs Legends FC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Rebels SC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 4 | 1.33 | WLD | +0.72 | -0.13 | 1% | 10.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Legends FC · Sat Oct 31 at San Diego Surf · Sat Nov 21 at Beach Futbol Club See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Arizona Arsenal | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 7 | +0 | 4 | 1.00 | LLDW | +0.06 | -0.06 | 3% | 8.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 8 vs LA Breakers FC · Sat Nov 21 vs San Diego Surf · Sat Dec 12 vs Utah Royals FC-AZ See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Phoenix Rising FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 3 | 1.00 | WLL | -0.50 | +0.16 | 0% | 12.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Legends FC Del Mar · Sat Oct 31 at Sporting California USA · Sun Nov 1 at Eagles SC See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Eagles SC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 3 | 1.00 | LLW | +0.10 | +0.01 | 0% | 10.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 vs Sporting California USA · Sat Oct 24 vs San Diego Surf · Sun Nov 1 vs Phoenix Rising FC See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Pateadores Soccer Club | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 3 | 1.00 | LWL | +0.57 | -0.08 | 0% | 12.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs LV Heat Surf · Sat Oct 31 vs Blues · Sat Nov 7 vs Sporting California USA See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | Utah Royals FC-AZ | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 4 | 0.80 | LLDWL | -0.18 | +0.20 | 0% | 11.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Legends FC Del Mar · Sat Nov 7 vs LA Breakers FC · Sat Dec 12 at Arizona Arsenal See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 14 | LV Heat Surf | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 11 | -8 | 4 | 0.80 | WLDLL | +0.14 | +0.03 | 0% | 13.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Pateadores Soccer Club · Sun Oct 25 at Blues · Sat Nov 21 vs Sporting California USA See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 15 | LA Breakers FC | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 3 | 0.75 | LLWL | +0.72 | -0.16 | 0% | 11.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs LAFC · Sat Oct 31 vs SLAMMERS FC · Sat Nov 7 at Utah Royals FC-AZ See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 16 | Legends FC Del Mar | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 9 | -7 | 1 | 0.33 | LDL | +0.17 | +0.04 | 0% | 14.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Phoenix Rising FC · Sun Oct 25 at Utah Royals FC-AZ · Sat Oct 31 at Beach Futbol Club See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 17 | Sporting California USA | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 15 | -14 | 1 | 0.25 | LLDL | +1.33 | -0.46 | 0% | 15.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 at Eagles SC · Sat Oct 31 vs Phoenix Rising FC · Sat Nov 7 at Pateadores Soccer Club See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.89 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.