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Legends FC

ECNL Girls · Southwest GU14 · 17 teams · Legends FC (CA) (all teams)

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4th
3-0-1 record · 4 played
2.25 points per game
+11 goal diff · 13–2
WLWWlast 4
82% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.3
-0.66 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:00 AM

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Legends FC
4th · 2.25 PPG
vs
Rebels SC
8th · 1.33 PPG

Silverlakes Complex, Field 23 ↗

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 3–0 (expected goals 3.2 for, 1.0 against · 2.54 expected points)

Season so farLegends FCRebels SC
Position4th8th
Record (W-D-L)3-0-11-1-1
Points per game2.251.33
Goals for / game3.31.3
Goals against / game0.52.7
Clean sheets21
Held scoreless11
Form (recent first)W W L WD L W
Biggest win5–0 vs Sporting California USA2–0 vs Legends FC Del Mar
Worst loss0–1 vs Blues0–6 vs Slammers FC HB Koge
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.42-0.55
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.66+0.72

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–1 vs Blues.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 81% chance; likely score 3–0.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Rebels SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Legends FC – Rebels SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.40 PPG
4th— holds 4th— holds 4th— holds
Win
2.40 PPG
4th— holds 4th— holds 4th— holds
Draw
2.00 PPG
5th▼ down 1 4th— holds 6th▼ down 2
Loss
1.80 PPG
6th▼ down 2 5th▼ down 1 6th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–0 win we finish as high as 3rd if every rival drops points, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

2% finish 1st
82% top 4
18% below the top 4
3.3 average finish
  1. 1st 2%
  2. 2nd 33%
  3. 3rd 26%
  4. 4th 21%
  5. 5th 14%
  6. 6th 3%
  7. 7th 1%
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.81 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Slammers FC HB Koge 3.00 (+0.75) 1st (2.74) 39 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection
2 Blues 3.00 (+0.75) 4th (2.03) 39 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
3 Beach Futbol Club 2.50 (+0.25) 2nd (2.17) 31 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection

How the results connect

1 chain · 4 teams

Paths of results that link Legends FC to Rebels SC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us
0 favour them
+5.0 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
5–0 0–6 6–0 Legends FC 4th Sporting California… 17th Slammers FC HB Koge 1st Rebels SC 8th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

1 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 9th 17th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.08 · 4th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 3
11:00 AM
no score posted
Beach Futbol Club
3rd · 3-1-0 · GD +9
Away far trip
El Camino College
●●●●○ Tough
42%
2–1 1.46 2.09 Upside
Sat Oct 24
11:00 AM
Rebels SC
8th · 1-1-1 · GD -4
Home
Silverlakes Complex
●○○○○ Favorable
81%
3–0 2.54 2.17 Bank it
Sat Nov 7
02:45 PM
LAFC
7th · 2-0-2 · GD -1
Away far trip
Oak Park High School · turf?
●●○○○ Lean win
68%
2–1 2.19 2.17 Swing game
Sat Nov 21
11:00 AM
LA Breakers FC
15th · 1-0-3 · GD -6
Home
Silverlakes Complex
●○○○○ Favorable
82%
3–0 2.57 2.22 Bank it
Sat Mar 20
TBD
Pateadores Soccer Club
12th · 1-0-2 · GD -7
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
87%
3–0 2.68 2.27 Bank it
Sun Mar 21
TBD
Slammers FC HB Koge
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +24
Home
●●●●● Very tough
20%
1–2 0.79 2.12 Upside
Sat Apr 10
01:00 PM
San Diego Surf
6th · 1-1-0 · GD +1
Away far trip
Surf Sports Park
●●○○○ Lean win
60%
2–1 2.01 2.11 Swing game
Sat Apr 24
TBD
Phoenix Rising FC
10th · 1-0-2 · GD -3
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
83%
3–0 2.58 2.15 Bank it
Sat May 1
TBD
Legends FC Del Mar
16th · 0-1-2 · GD -7
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
88%
3–0 2.72 2.20 Bank it
Sat May 8
TBD
SLAMMERS FC
5th · 3-2-0 · GD +8
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
44%
1–1 1.56 2.15 Swing game
Sat May 15
TBD
Arizona Arsenal
9th · 1-1-2 · GD +0
Away
●●○○○ Lean win
60%
2–1 2.00 2.14 Swing game
Sun May 16
TBD
Utah Royals FC-AZ
13th · 1-1-3 · GD -3
Away
●●○○○ Lean win
70%
2–1 2.28 2.15 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Slammers FC HB Koge 4400 240+24 123.00 WWWW -0.93 +0.05 100% 1.1
2 Blues 2200 40+4 63.00 WW -0.08 -0.05 62% 4.1
3 Beach Futbol Club 4310 145+9 102.50 WWWD +0.10 -0.03 85% 3.2
4 Legends FC 4301 132+11 92.25 WLWW -0.66 +0.08 82% 3.3
5 SLAMMERS FC 5320 135+8 112.20 WDWWD -0.19 +0.01 60% 4.1
6 San Diego Surf 2110 32+1 42.00 WD -1.06 +0.14 6% 7.8
7 LAFC 4202 910-1 61.50 LLWW -0.14 +0.04 3% 7.9
8 Rebels SC 3111 48-4 41.33 WLD +0.72 -0.13 1% 10.2
9 Arizona Arsenal 4112 77+0 41.00 LLDW +0.06 -0.06 3% 8.0
10 Phoenix Rising FC 3102 47-3 31.00 WLL -0.50 +0.16 0% 12.3
11 Eagles SC 3102 59-4 31.00 LLW +0.10 +0.01 0% 10.8
12 Pateadores Soccer Club 3102 411-7 31.00 LWL +0.57 -0.08 0% 12.2
13 Utah Royals FC-AZ 5113 710-3 40.80 LLDWL -0.18 +0.20 0% 11.8
14 LV Heat Surf 5113 311-8 40.80 WLDLL +0.14 +0.03 0% 13.9
15 LA Breakers FC 4103 410-6 30.75 LLWL +0.72 -0.16 0% 11.9
16 Legends FC Del Mar 3012 29-7 10.33 LDL +0.17 +0.04 0% 14.7
17 Sporting California USA 4013 115-14 10.25 LLDL +1.33 -0.46 0% 15.7

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.89 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.