VDA

ECNL Girls · Mid-Atlantic GU14 · 11 teams · Virginia Development Academy (all teams)

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5th

3-1-1 record · 5 played

2.00 points per game

+12 goal diff · 15–3

DWWLWlast 5

77% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.3

-0.54 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:00 AM

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VDA
5th · 2.00 PPG

Wilmington Hammerheads
7th · 1.00 PPG

NCINO Sports Park, Field 6 ↗ far trip

71% 16% 13%

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.6 for, 1.1 against · 2.28 expected points)

Season so far	VDA	Wilmington Hammerheads
Position	5th	7th
Record (W-D-L)	3-1-1	1-2-2
Points per game	2.00	1.00
Goals for / game	3.0	1.4
Goals against / game	0.6	2.0
Clean sheets	4	0
Held scoreless	2	0
Form (recent first)	W L W W D	W D L L D
Biggest win	7–0 vs NC Fusion	2–1 vs South Carolina Surf
Worst loss	0–3 vs Charlotte SA	1–3 vs Charlotte SA
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+1.29	-0.40
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.54	-0.11

Common opponents: Arlington Soccer Association — we 0–0; they 2–4. South Carolina Surf — we 7–0; they 2–1. Charlotte SA — we 0–3; they 1–3.

Game plan

Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–0 vs Arlington Soccer Association, 0–3 vs Charlotte SA.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 71% chance; likely score 2–1.
Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
Away game
Kickoff 11:00 AM at NCINO Sports Park.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Wilmington Hammerheads game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (VDA – Wilmington Hammerheads) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 2.17 PPG	4th▲ up 1	2nd▲ up 3	5th— holds
Win 2.17 PPG	4th▲ up 1	2nd▲ up 3	5th— holds
Draw 1.83 PPG	5th— holds	6th▼ down 1	6th▼ down 1
Loss 1.67 PPG	6th▼ down 1	6th▼ down 1	6th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 5th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

7% finish 1st

77% top 4

23% below the top 4

3.3 average finish

1st 7%
2nd 26%
3rd 23%
4th 21%
5th 16%
6th 7%
7th <1%
8th
9th
10th
11th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 15 remaining known games (max 2.75 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Charlotte SA	3.00 (+1.00)	1st (2.41)	50 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 39 for their projection
2	Fairfax Virginia Union	2.33 (+0.33)	6th (1.69)	37 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
3	NCFC Youth NC Courage	2.25 (+0.25)	4th (1.98)	35 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection
4	Arlington Soccer Association	2.17 (+0.17)	5th (1.90)	34 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection

How the results connect

10 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link VDA to Wilmington Hammerheads through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

8 favour us

1 even

1 favour them

+2.7 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

10 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.02 · 5th hardest of 11

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 11:00 AM	Wilmington Hammerheads 7th · 1-2-2 · GD -3	Away far trip NCINO Sports Park	●●○○○ Lean win	71%	2–1	2.28	2.05	Bank it
Sun Oct 25 11:00 AM	NCFC Youth NC Courage 3rd · 3-0-1 · GD +7	Away far trip WRAL	●●●●○ Tough	41%	1–1	1.45	1.96	Upside
Sat Nov 7 09:00 AM	Fairfax Virginia Union 2nd · 2-1-0 · GD +3	Home Howison Park	●●●○○ Toss-up	58%	1–0	1.95	1.96	Swing game
Sat Jan 16 12:30 PM	Richmond United 6th · 3-0-2 · GD +13	Away far trip Striker Park	●●●●○ Tough	34%	1–1	1.25	1.88	Upside
Sun Jan 17 11:00 AM	NCFC Youth 8th · 1-2-3 · GD -11	Away far trip WRAL	●○○○○ Favorable	83%	2–0	2.60	1.95	Bank it
Sat Feb 20 11:00 AM	NCFC Youth NC Courage 3rd · 3-0-1 · GD +7	Home Long Park	●●●○○ Toss-up	50%	1–1	1.72	1.93	Swing game
Sun Feb 21 11:00 AM	Wilmington Hammerheads 7th · 1-2-2 · GD -3	Home Long Park	●○○○○ Favorable	78%	2–0	2.48	1.98	Bank it
Sat Feb 27 TBD	South Carolina Surf 10th · 0-0-4 · GD -14	Away	●○○○○ Favorable	90%	3–0	2.76	2.04	Bank it
Sat Mar 20 TBD	NC Fusion 11th · 0-0-3 · GD -16	Away	●○○○○ Favorable	94%	4–0	2.86	2.10	Bank it
Sun Mar 21 11:00 AM	Charlotte SA 1st · 4-0-0 · GD +10	Away far trip Orthocarolina Complex	●●●●○ Tough	26%	1–1	1.04	2.03	Upside
Sat Apr 17 11:00 AM	Richmond United 6th · 3-0-2 · GD +13	Home Catharpin Park	●●●○○ Toss-up	43%	1–1	1.52	1.99	Swing game
Sun Apr 18 11:00 AM	NCFC Youth 8th · 1-2-3 · GD -11	Home Howison Park	●○○○○ Favorable	88%	3–0	2.73	2.04	Bank it
Sat Apr 24 01:30 PM	Beach FC 9th · 0-1-4 · GD -7	Home Ali Krieger Sports Complex (AKSC)	●○○○○ Favorable	80%	2–0	2.54	2.06	Bank it
Sat May 1 10:45 AM	Fairfax Virginia Union 2nd · 2-1-0 · GD +3	Away far trip James W Robinson HS · turf	●●●○○ Toss-up	49%	1–1	1.72	2.05	Swing game
Sat May 15 TBD	Arlington Soccer Association 4th · 4-1-1 · GD +6	Away	●●●●○ Tough	41%	1–1	1.51	2.02	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Charlotte SA

+10

3.00

WWWW

+0.12

-0.24

99%

1.4

W	Sat Oct 17	at	South Carolina Surf (10th)	4–0
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Richmond United (6th)	1–0
W	Sat Oct 3	at	VDA (5th)	3–0
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Wilmington Hammerheads (7th)	3–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Arlington Soccer Association · Sun Oct 25 vs Fairfax Virginia Union · Sun Nov 1 at NCFC Youth NC Courage See all 16 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Arlington Soccer Association (4th)	1–0	54%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Fairfax Virginia Union (2nd)	1–0	62%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	NCFC Youth NC Courage (3rd)	1–1	47%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	NCFC Youth (8th)	3–0	89%
·	Sat Jan 16	vs	Beach FC (9th)	2–0	81%
·	Sun Jan 17	at	NC Fusion (11th)	4–0	95%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	Wilmington Hammerheads (7th)	2–0	81%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	South Carolina Surf (10th)	3–0	94%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Richmond United (6th)	1–1	50%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	VDA (5th)	1–1	49%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Beach FC (9th)	2–0	76%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	NCFC Youth (8th)	2–0	85%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	NCFC Youth NC Courage (3rd)	1–1	56%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Arlington Soccer Association (4th)	1–0	47%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Fairfax Virginia Union (2nd)	1–0	54%
·	Sat May 1	vs	NC Fusion (11th)	5–0	97%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Fairfax Virginia Union

2.33

WWD

-0.19

-0.03

21%

5.3

D	Sun Oct 4	vs	Wilmington Hammerheads (7th)	1–1
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	NCFC Youth NC Courage (3rd)	2–1
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	NCFC Youth (8th)	2–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at South Carolina Surf · Sun Oct 25 at Charlotte SA · Sat Nov 7 at VDA See all 17 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	South Carolina Surf (10th)	2–0	75%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Charlotte SA (1st)	0–1	15%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	VDA (5th)	0–1	20%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Beach FC (9th)	1–0	64%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Arlington Soccer Association (4th)	1–1	33%
·	Sat Jan 16	at	NC Fusion (11th)	3–0	82%
·	Sun Jan 17	at	Richmond United (6th)	1–2	19%
·	Sun Feb 7	at	NCFC Youth (8th)	1–0	66%
·	Sat Feb 13	at	Beach FC (9th)	1–0	57%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	NCFC Youth NC Courage (3rd)	1–1	25%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Wilmington Hammerheads (7th)	1–1	51%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Arlington Soccer Association (4th)	0–1	26%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	South Carolina Surf (10th)	2–0	82%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	NC Fusion (11th)	3–0	88%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Richmond United (6th)	1–1	26%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Charlotte SA (1st)	0–1	20%
·	Sat May 1	vs	VDA (5th)	1–1	26%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

NCFC Youth NC Courage

2.25

WLWW

-0.23

-0.09

70%

3.6

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	NCFC Youth (8th)	4–0
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Arlington Soccer Association (4th)	2–1
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Fairfax Virginia Union (2nd)	1–2
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Beach FC (9th)	3–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Richmond United · Sun Oct 25 vs VDA · Sun Nov 1 vs Charlotte SA See all 16 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Richmond United (6th)	1–1	36%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	VDA (5th)	1–1	36%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Charlotte SA (1st)	1–1	28%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	NC Fusion (11th)	4–0	91%
·	Sat Jan 16	at	Wilmington Hammerheads (7th)	2–1	64%
·	Sat Jan 23	vs	South Carolina Surf (10th)	3–0	91%
·	Sat Feb 13	vs	NC Fusion (11th)	5–0	95%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	VDA (5th)	1–1	28%
·	Sun Feb 21	at	Richmond United (6th)	1–2	28%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Fairfax Virginia Union (2nd)	1–1	52%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Beach FC (9th)	2–0	76%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	South Carolina Surf (10th)	3–0	86%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	NCFC Youth (8th)	2–0	78%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Arlington Soccer Association (4th)	1–1	44%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Charlotte SA (1st)	1–1	21%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Wilmington Hammerheads (7th)	2–1	73%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Arlington Soccer Association

2.17

DWWLW

+0.17

-0.18

55%

4.2

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Richmond United (6th)	1–0
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	NCFC Youth NC Courage (3rd)	1–2
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Wilmington Hammerheads (7th)	4–2
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	South Carolina Surf (10th)	2–0
D	Sun Sep 20	at	VDA (5th)	0–0
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Beach FC (9th)	2–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Charlotte SA · Sun Oct 25 at NC Fusion · Sun Nov 15 at Fairfax Virginia Union See all 14 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Charlotte SA (1st)	0–1	19%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	NC Fusion (11th)	3–0	85%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Fairfax Virginia Union (2nd)	1–1	38%
·	Sat Jan 16	at	NCFC Youth (8th)	2–0	70%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	South Carolina Surf (10th)	2–0	79%
·	Sun Feb 7	at	Wilmington Hammerheads (7th)	1–0	57%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Fairfax Virginia Union (2nd)	1–0	45%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Richmond United (6th)	1–1	25%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	NCFC Youth NC Courage (3rd)	1–1	30%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	NCFC Youth (8th)	2–0	77%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	NC Fusion (11th)	3–0	90%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Charlotte SA (1st)	0–1	25%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Beach FC (9th)	1–0	61%
·	Sat May 15	vs	VDA (5th)	1–1	32%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

VDA

+12

2.00

DWWLW

-0.54

-0.02

77%

3.3

W	Sun Oct 4	at	Beach FC (9th)	1–0
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Charlotte SA (1st)	0–3
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	South Carolina Surf (10th)	7–0
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	NC Fusion (11th)	7–0
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	Arlington Soccer Association (4th)	0–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Wilmington Hammerheads · Sun Oct 25 at NCFC Youth NC Courage · Sat Nov 7 vs Fairfax Virginia Union See all 15 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Wilmington Hammerheads (7th)	2–1	71%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	NCFC Youth NC Courage (3rd)	1–1	41%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Fairfax Virginia Union (2nd)	1–0	58%
·	Sat Jan 16	at	Richmond United (6th)	1–1	34%
·	Sun Jan 17	at	NCFC Youth (8th)	2–0	83%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	NCFC Youth NC Courage (3rd)	1–1	50%
·	Sun Feb 21	vs	Wilmington Hammerheads (7th)	2–0	78%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	South Carolina Surf (10th)	3–0	90%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	NC Fusion (11th)	4–0	94%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Charlotte SA (1st)	1–1	26%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Richmond United (6th)	1–1	43%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	NCFC Youth (8th)	3–0	88%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Beach FC (9th)	2–0	80%
·	Sat May 1	at	Fairfax Virginia Union (2nd)	1–1	49%
·	Sat May 15	at	Arlington Soccer Association (4th)	1–1	41%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Richmond United

+13

1.80

WWWLL

-0.39

-0.07

79%

3.3

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Arlington Soccer Association (4th)	0–1
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Charlotte SA (1st)	0–1
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Beach FC (9th)	2–1
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	NC Fusion (11th)	8–1
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	NCFC Youth (8th)	7–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at NCFC Youth NC Courage · Sun Oct 25 at Wilmington Hammerheads · Sat Nov 21 at South Carolina Surf See all 15 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	NCFC Youth NC Courage (3rd)	1–1	42%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Wilmington Hammerheads (7th)	2–1	73%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	South Carolina Surf (10th)	4–0	91%
·	Sat Jan 16	vs	VDA (5th)	1–1	44%
·	Sun Jan 17	vs	Fairfax Virginia Union (2nd)	2–1	60%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	Wilmington Hammerheads (7th)	3–1	81%
·	Sun Feb 21	vs	NCFC Youth NC Courage (3rd)	2–1	51%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	NCFC Youth (8th)	3–0	85%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Charlotte SA (1st)	1–1	27%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	NC Fusion (11th)	5–0	95%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Arlington Soccer Association (4th)	1–1	51%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	VDA (5th)	1–1	34%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Fairfax Virginia Union (2nd)	1–1	51%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	South Carolina Surf (10th)	4–0	95%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Beach FC (9th)	2–0	82%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Wilmington Hammerheads

-3

1.00

DLLDW

-0.11

+0.05

7.2

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	South Carolina Surf (10th)	2–1
D	Sun Oct 4	at	Fairfax Virginia Union (2nd)	1–1
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Arlington Soccer Association (4th)	2–4
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Charlotte SA (1st)	1–3
D	Sat Sep 12	vs	NCFC Youth (8th)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs VDA · Sun Oct 25 vs Richmond United · Sat Oct 31 at Beach FC See all 15 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	VDA (5th)	1–2	13%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Richmond United (6th)	1–2	13%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Beach FC (9th)	1–1	45%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	NC Fusion (11th)	3–1	78%
·	Sat Jan 16	vs	NCFC Youth NC Courage (3rd)	1–2	17%
·	Sat Jan 23	at	NCFC Youth (8th)	1–1	53%
·	Sun Feb 7	vs	Arlington Soccer Association (4th)	0–1	20%
·	Sat Feb 13	at	South Carolina Surf (10th)	2–1	63%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	Richmond United (6th)	1–3	8%
·	Sun Feb 21	at	VDA (5th)	0–2	9%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	Charlotte SA (1st)	0–2	7%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Beach FC (9th)	1–0	53%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Fairfax Virginia Union (2nd)	1–1	26%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	NC Fusion (11th)	3–1	69%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	NCFC Youth NC Courage (3rd)	1–2	12%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

NCFC Youth

-11

0.83

WDLLL

-0.06

+0.19

8.7

L	Sun Oct 18	at	NCFC Youth NC Courage (3rd)	0–4
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Fairfax Virginia Union (2nd)	0–2
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Richmond United (6th)	0–7
D	Sun Sep 20	at	Beach FC (9th)	0–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	NC Fusion (11th)	3–1
D	Sat Sep 12	at	Wilmington Hammerheads (7th)	1–1

Next: Sat Nov 14 at Charlotte SA · Sat Jan 16 vs Arlington Soccer Association · Sun Jan 17 vs VDA See all 14 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Charlotte SA (1st)	0–3	3%
·	Sat Jan 16	vs	Arlington Soccer Association (4th)	0–2	10%
·	Sun Jan 17	vs	VDA (5th)	0–2	6%
·	Sat Jan 23	vs	Wilmington Hammerheads (7th)	1–1	25%
·	Sun Jan 24	vs	South Carolina Surf (10th)	1–1	50%
·	Sun Feb 7	vs	Fairfax Virginia Union (2nd)	0–1	14%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	NC Fusion (11th)	2–1	45%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	Richmond United (6th)	0–3	5%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	NCFC Youth NC Courage (3rd)	0–2	8%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Charlotte SA (1st)	0–2	4%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Arlington Soccer Association (4th)	0–2	7%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	VDA (5th)	0–3	4%
·	Sat May 1	at	South Carolina Surf (10th)	1–1	42%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Beach FC (9th)	1–0	35%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Beach FC

-7

0.20

LLDLL

+0.66

-0.14

8.6

L	Sun Oct 4	vs	VDA (5th)	0–1
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Richmond United (6th)	1–2
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	NCFC Youth (8th)	0–0
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	NCFC Youth NC Courage (3rd)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Arlington Soccer Association (4th)	0–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at NC Fusion · Sun Oct 25 at South Carolina Surf · Sat Oct 31 vs Wilmington Hammerheads See all 15 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	NC Fusion (11th)	1–1	47%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	South Carolina Surf (10th)	1–0	43%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Wilmington Hammerheads (7th)	1–1	28%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Fairfax Virginia Union (2nd)	0–1	12%
·	Sat Jan 16	at	Charlotte SA (1st)	0–2	5%
·	Sat Feb 13	vs	Fairfax Virginia Union (2nd)	0–1	16%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	NC Fusion (11th)	1–1	55%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Wilmington Hammerheads (7th)	0–1	22%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	NCFC Youth NC Courage (3rd)	0–2	8%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Charlotte SA (1st)	0–2	7%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	South Carolina Surf (10th)	1–0	50%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	VDA (5th)	0–2	6%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Arlington Soccer Association (4th)	0–1	13%
·	Sat May 1	at	Richmond United (6th)	0–2	5%
·	Sat May 15	at	NCFC Youth (8th)	0–1	34%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

South Carolina Surf

-14

0.00

LLLL

+0.73

+0.01

10.0

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Wilmington Hammerheads (7th)	1–2
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Charlotte SA (1st)	0–4
L	Sun Sep 27	at	VDA (5th)	0–7
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Arlington Soccer Association (4th)	0–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Fairfax Virginia Union · Sun Oct 25 vs Beach FC · Sat Oct 31 vs NC Fusion See all 16 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Fairfax Virginia Union (2nd)	0–2	9%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Beach FC (9th)	0–1	29%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	NC Fusion (11th)	2–1	46%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Richmond United (6th)	0–4	3%
·	Sat Jan 23	at	NCFC Youth NC Courage (3rd)	0–3	3%
·	Sun Jan 24	at	NCFC Youth (8th)	1–1	26%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	Arlington Soccer Association (4th)	0–2	7%
·	Sat Feb 13	vs	Wilmington Hammerheads (7th)	1–2	18%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	VDA (5th)	0–3	3%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Charlotte SA (1st)	0–3	1%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	NCFC Youth NC Courage (3rd)	0–3	5%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Fairfax Virginia Union (2nd)	0–2	6%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Beach FC (9th)	0–1	23%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	NC Fusion (11th)	1–2	36%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Richmond United (6th)	0–4	1%
·	Sat May 1	vs	NCFC Youth (8th)	1–1	33%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

NC Fusion

-16

0.00

LLL

+0.54

+0.16

10.4

L	Sun Sep 27	at	Richmond United (6th)	1–8
L	Sat Sep 26	at	VDA (5th)	0–7
L	Sat Sep 19	at	NCFC Youth (8th)	1–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Beach FC · Sun Oct 25 vs Arlington Soccer Association · Sat Oct 31 at South Carolina Surf See all 17 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Beach FC (9th)	1–1	29%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Arlington Soccer Association (4th)	0–3	5%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	South Carolina Surf (10th)	1–2	34%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Wilmington Hammerheads (7th)	1–3	10%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	NCFC Youth NC Courage (3rd)	0–4	3%
·	Sat Jan 16	vs	Fairfax Virginia Union (2nd)	0–3	7%
·	Sun Jan 17	vs	Charlotte SA (1st)	0–4	1%
·	Sat Feb 13	at	NCFC Youth NC Courage (3rd)	0–5	2%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	NCFC Youth (8th)	1–2	34%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	Beach FC (9th)	1–1	22%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	VDA (5th)	0–4	2%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Richmond United (6th)	0–5	2%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Wilmington Hammerheads (7th)	1–3	16%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Fairfax Virginia Union (2nd)	0–3	4%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Arlington Soccer Association (4th)	0–3	3%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	South Carolina Surf (10th)	2–1	44%
·	Sat May 1	at	Charlotte SA (1st)	0–5	1%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.64 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.