Result · Saturday, Oct 3, 11:00 AM

Fairfax Virginia Union 2–1 NCFC Youth NC Courage

Final

Fairfax Virginia Union
2nd · 2.33 PPG · home

2–1

NCFC Youth NC Courage
3rd · 2.25 PPG · away

By today's ratings the model gave this result a 32% chance — a mild surprise. Pre-match odds were 32% home, 25% draw, 43% away, most likely 1–1.

Season so far	Fairfax Virginia Union	NCFC Youth NC Courage
Position	2nd	3rd
Record (W-D-L)	2-1-0	3-0-1
Points per game	2.33	2.25
Goals for / game	1.7	2.5
Goals against / game	0.7	0.8
Clean sheets	1	2
Held scoreless	0	0
Form (recent first)	D W W	W W L W
Biggest win	2–0 vs NCFC Youth	4–0 vs NCFC Youth
Worst loss	—	1–2 at Fairfax Virginia Union
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.40	+0.98
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.19	-0.23

Already met this season: Oct 3 2–1 (home for Fairfax Virginia Union)

Common opponents: NCFC Youth — Fairfax Virginia Union 2–0; NCFC Youth NC Courage 4–0.

5 chains

1 favour Fairfax Virginia Union, 4 favour NCFC Youth NC Courage; average margin -1.8 goals toward Fairfax Virginia Union.

+1Fairfax Virginia Union beat NCFC Youth NC Courage 2–1
-2Fairfax Virginia Union beat NCFC Youth 2–0 → NCFC Youth lost to NCFC Youth NC Courage 0–4
-1Fairfax Virginia Union beat NCFC Youth 2–0 → NCFC Youth drew with Beach FC 0–0 → Beach FC lost to NCFC Youth NC Courage 0–3
-3Fairfax Virginia Union drew with Wilmington Hammerheads 1–1 → Wilmington Hammerheads lost to Arlington Soccer Association 2–4 → Arlington Soccer Association lost to NCFC Youth NC Courage 1–2
-4Fairfax Virginia Union drew with Wilmington Hammerheads 1–1 → Wilmington Hammerheads drew with NCFC Youth 1–1 → NCFC Youth lost to NCFC Youth NC Courage 0–4