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Sporting California USA

ECNL Boys · Southwest BU13 · 13 teams · Sporting California USA (all teams)

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4th
2-1-0 record · 3 played
2.33 points per game
+5 goal diff · 8–3
DWWlast 3
14% chance of top 4 · expected finish 6.4
-1.36 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:00 AM

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Sporting California USA
4th · 2.33 PPG
vs
San Diego Surf
6th · 1.50 PPG

San Bernardino Valley College, Grass ↗ · grass

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.8 for, 2.5 against · 1.05 expected points)

Season so farSporting California USASan Diego Surf
Position4th6th
Record (W-D-L)2-1-02-0-2
Points per game2.331.50
Goals for / game2.74.8
Goals against / game1.01.0
Clean sheets11
Held scoreless01
Form (recent first)W W DL W L W
Biggest win5–2 at Legends FC Del Mar11–1 at LV Heat Surf SC
Worst loss—0–1 vs Legends FC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.57+1.64
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-1.36-1.41

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    San Diego Surf score 4.8/game — well above the league's 2.0.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 29%; a draw (19%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Grass field
    Venue listed as "Grass" at San Bernardino Valley College.

    If the team trains on turf: the ball will be slower and bounce less true. Weight passes harder, favour early crosses in the final third, and bring FG/SG cleats. Warm up on the field, not the track.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

  • What a win does
    CDA Slammers FC sit 3rd on 2.50 PPG; we are on 2.33.

    A win moves us above CDA Slammers FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the San Diego Surf game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Sporting California USA – San Diego Surf) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 1.75 PPG		 6th▼ down 2 5th▼ down 1 7th▼ down 3
Win
2.50 PPG		 4th— holds 3rd▲ up 1 4th— holds
Draw
2.00 PPG		 4th— holds 4th— holds 5th▼ down 1
Loss
1.75 PPG		 6th▼ down 2 5th▼ down 1 7th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we fall to at least 5th even if every rival loses, and as low as 7th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
14% top 4
86% below the top 4
6.4 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd 1%
  3. 3rd 3%
  4. 4th 10%
  5. 5th 17%
  6. 6th 22%
  7. 7th 21%
  8. 8th 14%
  9. 9th 10%
  10. 10th 2%
  11. 11th <1%
  12. 12th
  13. 13th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 21 remaining known games (max 2.92 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 LA Breakers FC 2.67 (+0.34) 2nd (2.14) 58 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 45 for their projection
2 LAFC 2.60 (+0.27) 3rd (2.05) 56 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 43 for their projection
3 CDA Slammers FC 2.50 (+0.17) 1st (2.41) Win next game

How the results connect

3 chains · 5 teams

Paths of results that link Sporting California USA to San Diego Surf through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us
3 favour them
-5.7 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–0 5–1 1–11 1–1 5–2 1–1 Sporting California… 4th West Coast FC 11th Legends FC Del Mar 12th LV Heat Surf SC 13th San Diego Surf 6th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

3 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

1st 7th 13th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 24 Sep 27 Oct 4 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.21 · 5th hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Mon Jan 1
TBD
no score posted		 Pateadores Soccer Club
5th · 2-1-1 · GD +8		 Home
●●●●○ Tough
39%		 1–1 1.40 2.10 Upside
Sat Oct 24
09:00 AM		 San Diego Surf
6th · 2-0-2 · GD +15		 Home
San Bernardino Valley College · grass		 ●●●●○ Tough
29%		 1–2 1.05 1.89 Upside
Sat Oct 31
09:00 AM		 Pateadores Soccer Club
5th · 2-1-1 · GD +8		 Away far trip
Great Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
30%		 1–1 1.13 1.76 Upside
Sun Nov 1
04:00 PM		 Rebels SC
8th · 1-2-1 · GD +0		 Away far trip
Monte Vista High School · turf?		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
43%		 1–1 1.50 1.73 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
01:00 PM		 Legends FC Del Mar
12th · 0-1-5 · GD -26		 Home
Ontario Sports Empire		 ●○○○○ Favorable
93%		 4–0 2.83 1.86 Bank it
Sat Nov 14
09:00 AM		 SDSC Surf
9th · 2-0-3 · GD +5		 Away far trip
Maranatha Christian School		 ●●●●○ Tough
30%		 1–1 1.13 1.78 Upside
Sun Nov 15
01:00 PM		 SDSC Surf
9th · 2-0-3 · GD +5		 Home
San Bernardino Valley College · grass		 ●●●●○ Tough
38%		 1–1 1.39 1.74 Upside
Sat Mar 13
TBD		 CDA Slammers FC
3rd · 5-0-1 · GD +25		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
16%		 1–2 0.63 1.64 Upside
Sun Mar 14
TBD		 LA Breakers FC
1st · 5-1-0 · GD +14		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
23%		 0–1 0.94 1.58 Upside
Sat Mar 20
TBD		 Legends FC
7th · 2-1-2 · GD -2		 Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
53%		 1–1 1.83 1.60 Swing game
Sat Apr 3
TBD		 Rebels SC
8th · 1-2-1 · GD +0		 Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
52%		 2–1 1.78 1.61 Swing game
Sun Apr 4
11:00 AM		 San Diego Surf
6th · 2-0-2 · GD +15		 Away far trip
Surf Sports Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
20%		 1–2 0.78 1.56 Upside
Sat Apr 10
TBD		 LV Heat Surf SC
13th · 0-1-7 · GD -45		 Away
●○○○○ Favorable
95%		 5–0 2.88 1.64 Bank it
Sat Apr 17
TBD		 LA Breakers FC
1st · 5-1-0 · GD +14		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
17%		 0–1 0.75 1.59 Upside
Sat Apr 24
TBD		 LAFC
2nd · 4-1-0 · GD +13		 Home
●●●●○ Tough
29%		 1–2 1.06 1.56 Upside
Sat May 1
TBD		 Beach Futbol Club
10th · 1-0-2 · GD -7		 Home
●●○○○ Lean win
72%		 3–1 2.30 1.60 Bank it
Sun May 2
TBD		 CDA Slammers FC
3rd · 5-0-1 · GD +25		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
10%		 1–3 0.44 1.54 Upside
Sun May 9
01:00 PM		 Legends FC
7th · 2-1-2 · GD -2		 Away far trip
Silverlakes Complex		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
45%		 1–1 1.59 1.54 Swing game
Sat May 15
TBD		 LV Heat Surf SC
13th · 0-1-7 · GD -45		 Home
●○○○○ Favorable
97%		 5–0 2.93 1.61 Bank it
Sat May 22
TBD		 LAFC
2nd · 4-1-0 · GD +13		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
21%		 1–2 0.81 1.57 Upside
Sat May 29
09:00 AM		 Beach Futbol Club
10th · 1-0-2 · GD -7		 Away far trip
El Camino College · turf?		 ●●○○○ Lean win
62%		 2–1 2.04 1.59 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 LA Breakers FC 6510 151+14 162.67 WWDWW -0.91 +0.29 94% 2.6
2 LAFC 5410 174+13 132.60 WWDWW -0.51 +0.07 89% 3.0
3 CDA Slammers FC 6501 283+25 152.50 WWWWL -0.73 +0.07 100% 1.3
4 Sporting California USA 3210 83+5 72.33 DWW -1.36 +0.21 14% 6.4
5 Pateadores Soccer Club 4211 113+8 71.75 LDWW -1.79 +0.34 18% 6.1
6 San Diego Surf 4202 194+15 61.50 WLWL -1.41 +0.20 59% 4.4
7 Legends FC 5212 46-2 71.40 WWLDL +0.92 -0.15 2% 8.1
8 Rebels SC 4121 77+0 51.25 LDWD +0.41 -0.02 2% 7.8
9 SDSC Surf 5203 105+5 61.20 LLWWL +0.53 -0.11 21% 5.9
10 Beach Futbol Club 3102 512-7 31.00 LLW +1.15 -0.01 0% 10.2
11 West Coast FC 5113 712-5 40.80 WDLLL +0.29 +0.09 0% 10.3
12 Legends FC Del Mar 6015 329-26 10.17 LLDLL +0.49 +0.22 0% 12.2
13 LV Heat Surf SC 8017 449-45 10.13 LDLLL +0.53 +0.33 0% 12.8

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.98 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.