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CDA Slammers FC

ECNL Boys · Southwest BU13 · 13 teams · CDA Slammers FC (all teams)

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3rd
5-0-1 record · 6 played
2.50 points per game
+25 goal diff · 28–3
WWWWLlast 5
100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.3
-0.73 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 12:00 PM

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CDA Slammers FC
3rd · 2.50 PPG
vs
Pateadores Soccer Club
5th · 1.75 PPG

Santiago High School, Stadium ↗ · turf?

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.7 for, 1.1 against · 2.30 expected points)

Season so farCDA Slammers FCPateadores Soccer Club
Position3rd5th
Record (W-D-L)5-0-12-1-1
Points per game2.501.75
Goals for / game4.72.8
Goals against / game0.50.8
Clean sheets42
Held scoreless10
Form (recent first)L W W W WW W D L
Biggest win13–1 vs LV Heat Surf SC6–0 vs LV Heat Surf SC
Worst loss0–2 at LA Breakers FC1–2 at Legends FC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+2.47+0.73
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.73-1.79

Common opponents: LV Heat Surf SC — we 13–1; they 3–0, 6–0. LA Breakers FC — we 0–2; they 1–1.

Game plan

  • Hard to break down
    Pateadores Soccer Club concede only 0.8/game with 2 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–2 at LA Breakers FC.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 71% chance; likely score 2–1.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Pateadores Soccer Club game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (CDA Slammers FC – Pateadores Soccer Club) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.57 PPG		 3rd— holds 2nd▲ up 1 3rd— holds
Win
2.57 PPG		 3rd— holds 2nd▲ up 1 3rd— holds
Draw
2.29 PPG		 4th▼ down 1 3rd— holds 4th▼ down 1
Loss
2.14 PPG		 4th▼ down 1 3rd— holds 4th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 3rd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

76% finish 1st
100% top 4
0% below the top 4
1.3 average finish
  1. 1st 76%
  2. 2nd 18%
  3. 3rd 5%
  4. 4th 1%
  5. 5th <1%
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 18 remaining known games (max 2.88 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 LA Breakers FC 2.67 (+0.17) 2nd (2.14) 50 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection
2 LAFC 2.60 (+0.10) 3rd (2.05) 48 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection

How the results connect

18 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link CDA Slammers FC to Pateadores Soccer Club through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

15 favour us
3 favour them
+3.4 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–2 1–1 13–1 0–6 0–3 8–0 1–1 4–0 5–1 2–0 0–5 1–0 8–0 2–1 2–1 2–0 0–4 CDA Slammers FC 3rd LA Breakers FC 1st LV Heat Surf SC 13th Legends FC Del Mar 12th West Coast FC 11th SDSC Surf 9th Legends FC 7th Pateadores Soccer C… 5th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

1st 7th 13th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 24 Sep 27 Oct 4 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.07 · 8th hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 3
08:00 AM
no score posted		 San Diego Surf
6th · 2-0-2 · GD +15		 Home
Santiago High School · turf?		 ●●○○○ Lean win
64%		 2–1 2.10 2.44 Swing game
Sat Oct 24
12:00 PM		 Pateadores Soccer Club
5th · 2-1-1 · GD +8		 Home
Santiago High School · turf?		 ●●○○○ Lean win
71%		 2–1 2.30 2.42 Bank it
Sun Oct 25
12:00 PM		 Rebels SC
8th · 1-2-1 · GD +0		 Home
Santiago High School · turf?		 ●○○○○ Favorable
83%		 3–1 2.59 2.44 Bank it
Sun Nov 1
TBD		 Legends FC Del Mar
12th · 0-1-5 · GD -26		 Home
●○○○○ Favorable
99%		 7–0 2.98 2.50 Bank it
Sat Nov 7
11:00 AM		 San Diego Surf
6th · 2-0-2 · GD +15		 Away far trip
Surf Sports Park		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
54%		 2–1 1.80 2.43 Swing game
Sun Nov 8
10:15 AM		 Rebels SC
8th · 1-2-1 · GD +0		 Away far trip
Monte Vista High School · turf?		 ●○○○○ Favorable
76%		 3–1 2.41 2.43 Bank it
Sat Nov 14
TBD		 West Coast FC
11th · 1-1-3 · GD -5		 Home
●○○○○ Favorable
91%		 4–0 2.79 2.46 Bank it
Sat Mar 13
TBD		 Sporting California USA
4th · 2-1-0 · GD +5		 Away
●●○○○ Lean win
68%		 2–1 2.21 2.44 Swing game
Sun Mar 14
TBD		 LAFC
2nd · 4-1-0 · GD +13		 Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
52%		 2–1 1.77 2.40 Swing game
Sat Mar 20
TBD		 LA Breakers FC
1st · 5-1-0 · GD +14		 Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
49%		 1–1 1.73 2.36 Swing game
Sun Apr 4
TBD		 Pateadores Soccer Club
5th · 2-1-1 · GD +8		 Away
●●○○○ Lean win
63%		 2–1 2.06 2.34 Swing game
Sat Apr 10
TBD		 Beach Futbol Club
10th · 1-0-2 · GD -7		 Home
●○○○○ Favorable
94%		 5–0 2.87 2.37 Bank it
Sun Apr 11
TBD		 LAFC
2nd · 4-1-0 · GD +13		 Home
●●○○○ Lean win
62%		 2–1 2.04 2.35 Swing game
Sat Apr 17
TBD		 LV Heat Surf SC
13th · 0-1-7 · GD -45		 Away
●○○○○ Favorable
100%		 8–0 2.99 2.38 Bank it
Sat Apr 24
TBD		 Legends FC
7th · 2-1-2 · GD -2		 Home
●○○○○ Favorable
80%		 2–0 2.54 2.39 Bank it
Sun May 2
TBD		 Sporting California USA
4th · 2-1-0 · GD +5		 Home
●○○○○ Favorable
77%		 3–1 2.43 2.39 Bank it
Sat May 8
09:00 AM		 Beach Futbol Club
10th · 1-0-2 · GD -7		 Away far trip
El Camino College · turf?		 ●○○○○ Favorable
90%		 4–1 2.77 2.41 Bank it
Sun May 30
01:00 PM		 Legends FC
7th · 2-1-2 · GD -2		 Away
Silverlakes Complex		 ●●○○○ Lean win
74%		 2–0 2.37 2.41 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 LA Breakers FC 6510 151+14 162.67 WWDWW -0.91 +0.29 94% 2.6
2 LAFC 5410 174+13 132.60 WWDWW -0.51 +0.07 89% 3.0
3 CDA Slammers FC 6501 283+25 152.50 WWWWL -0.73 +0.07 100% 1.3
4 Sporting California USA 3210 83+5 72.33 DWW -1.36 +0.21 14% 6.4
5 Pateadores Soccer Club 4211 113+8 71.75 LDWW -1.79 +0.34 18% 6.1
6 San Diego Surf 4202 194+15 61.50 WLWL -1.41 +0.20 59% 4.4
7 Legends FC 5212 46-2 71.40 WWLDL +0.92 -0.15 2% 8.1
8 Rebels SC 4121 77+0 51.25 LDWD +0.41 -0.02 2% 7.8
9 SDSC Surf 5203 105+5 61.20 LLWWL +0.53 -0.11 21% 5.9
10 Beach Futbol Club 3102 512-7 31.00 LLW +1.15 -0.01 0% 10.2
11 West Coast FC 5113 712-5 40.80 WDLLL +0.29 +0.09 0% 10.3
12 Legends FC Del Mar 6015 329-26 10.17 LLDLL +0.49 +0.22 0% 12.2
13 LV Heat Surf SC 8017 449-45 10.13 LDLLL +0.53 +0.33 0% 12.8

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.98 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.