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Legends FC

ECNL Boys · Southwest BU13 · 13 teams · Legends FC (CA) (all teams)

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7th
2-1-2 record · 5 played
1.40 points per game
-2 goal diff · 4–6
WWLDLlast 5
2% chance of top 4 · expected finish 8.0
+0.92 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 03:00 PM

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Legends FC
7th · 1.40 PPG
vs
SDSC Surf
9th · 1.20 PPG

Silverlakes Complex, Field 2 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 0–1 (expected goals 0.9 for, 1.4 against · 1.06 expected points)

Season so farLegends FCSDSC Surf
Position7th9th
Record (W-D-L)2-1-22-0-3
Points per game1.401.20
Goals for / game0.82.0
Goals against / game1.21.0
Clean sheets21
Held scoreless23
Form (recent first)L D L W WL W W L L
Biggest win1–0 at San Diego Surf8–0 at LV Heat Surf SC
Worst loss0–3 at LAFC0–2 vs CDA Slammers FC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.09+0.69
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.92+0.53

Already played this season: Sun Sep 27 1–2 at SDSC Surf (L)

Common opponents: LAFC — we 0–3; they 0–1.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–0 vs Rebels SC, 0–3 at LAFC.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 26%; a draw (27%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • What a win does
    San Diego Surf sit 6th on 1.50 PPG; we are on 1.40.

    A point moves us above San Diego Surf on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the SDSC Surf game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Legends FC – SDSC Surf) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 1.17 PPG
9th▼ down 2 10th▼ down 3 10th▼ down 3
Win
1.67 PPG
6th▲ up 1 6th▲ up 1 8th▼ down 1
Draw
1.33 PPG
7th— holds 8th▼ down 1 10th▼ down 3
Loss
1.17 PPG
9th▼ down 2 10th▼ down 3 10th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–1 loss we fall to at least 8th even if every rival loses, and as low as 10th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
2% top 4
98% below the top 4
8.0 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd 1%
  4. 4th 2%
  5. 5th 4%
  6. 6th 9%
  7. 7th 16%
  8. 8th 24%
  9. 9th 31%
  10. 10th 11%
  11. 11th 3%
  12. 12th
  13. 13th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 19 remaining known games (max 2.67 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 LA Breakers FC 2.67 (+1.27) 2nd (2.14) 58 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 45 for their projection
2 LAFC 2.60 (+1.20) 3rd (2.05) 56 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 43 for their projection
3 CDA Slammers FC 2.50 (+1.10) 1st (2.41) 53 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 51 for their projection
4 Sporting California USA 2.33 (+0.93) 7th (1.59) 49 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection
5 Pateadores Soccer Club 1.75 (+0.35) 6th (1.62) 35 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection
6 San Diego Surf 1.50 (+0.10) 4th (1.83) A point next game

How the results connect

6 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link Legends FC to SDSC Surf through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

2 favour us
4 favour them
-0.7 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–2 0–3 1–0 0–0 3–3 2–1 6–0 0–8 1–0 11–1 3–0 Legends FC 7th LAFC 2nd Rebels SC 8th Pateadores Soccer C… 5th San Diego Surf 6th LV Heat Surf SC 13th SDSC Surf 9th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

6 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

1st 7th 13th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 24 Sep 27 Oct 4 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.15 · 13th hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
03:00 PM
SDSC Surf
9th · 2-0-3 · GD +5
Home
Silverlakes Complex
●●●●○ Tough
26%
0–1 1.06 1.34 Upside
Sat Oct 31
09:00 AM
San Diego Surf
6th · 2-0-2 · GD +15
Home
Silverlakes Complex
●●●●● Very tough
19%
1–2 0.76 1.26 Upside
Sun Nov 8
09:00 AM
West Coast FC
11th · 1-1-3 · GD -5
Home
Silverlakes Complex
●●●○○ Toss-up
49%
1–1 1.72 1.32 Swing game
Sat Nov 14
08:00 AM
Legends FC Del Mar
12th · 0-1-5 · GD -26
Away far trip
San Dieguito Academy
●●○○○ Lean win
73%
2–0 2.35 1.43 Bank it
Sat Jan 30
TBD
Pateadores Soccer Club
5th · 2-1-1 · GD +8
Away
●●●●● Very tough
20%
0–1 0.85 1.37 Upside
Sun Mar 14
01:00 PM
LV Heat Surf SC
13th · 0-1-7 · GD -45
Home
Silverlakes Complex
●○○○○ Favorable
89%
3–0 2.74 1.50 Bank it
Sat Mar 20
TBD
Sporting California USA
4th · 2-1-0 · GD +5
Away
●●●●● Very tough
23%
1–1 0.93 1.45 Upside
Sun Mar 21
12:00 PM
West Coast FC
11th · 1-1-3 · GD -5
Away far trip
Lake Forest Sports Park
●●●●○ Tough
41%
1–1 1.49 1.45 Upside
Sat Apr 3
07:00 PM
Legends FC Del Mar
12th · 0-1-5 · GD -26
Home
Silverlakes Complex
●○○○○ Favorable
80%
2–0 2.53 1.53 Bank it
Sun Apr 18
01:00 PM
Beach Futbol Club
10th · 1-0-2 · GD -7
Home
Silverlakes Complex
●●●○○ Toss-up
53%
1–1 1.82 1.55 Swing game
Sat Apr 24
TBD
CDA Slammers FC
3rd · 5-0-1 · GD +25
Away
●●●●● Very tough
7%
0–2 0.33 1.47 Upside
Sun Apr 25
12:30 PM
Rebels SC
8th · 1-2-1 · GD +0
Away far trip
Monte Vista High School · turf?
●●●●○ Tough
29%
1–1 1.12 1.45 Upside
Sat May 1
TBD
LV Heat Surf SC
13th · 0-1-7 · GD -45
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
83%
3–0 2.61 1.52 Bank it
Sat May 8
TBD
LA Breakers FC
1st · 5-1-0 · GD +14
Away
●●●●● Very tough
12%
0–1 0.60 1.47 Upside
Sun May 9
01:00 PM
Sporting California USA
4th · 2-1-0 · GD +5
Home
Silverlakes Complex
●●●●○ Tough
30%
1–1 1.15 1.45 Upside
Sat May 15
11:00 AM
LAFC
2nd · 4-1-0 · GD +13
Home
Ontario Sports Empire
●●●●● Very tough
19%
0–1 0.78 1.42 Upside
Sun May 16
09:00 AM
LA Breakers FC
1st · 5-1-0 · GD +14
Home
Ontario Sports Empire
●●●●● Very tough
16%
0–1 0.75 1.39 Upside
Sat May 22
09:00 AM
Beach Futbol Club
10th · 1-0-2 · GD -7
Away far trip
El Camino College · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up
44%
1–1 1.56 1.40 Swing game
Sun May 30
01:00 PM
CDA Slammers FC
3rd · 5-0-1 · GD +25
Home
Silverlakes Complex
●●●●● Very tough
10%
0–2 0.47 1.36 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 LA Breakers FC 6510 151+14 162.67 WWDWW -0.91 +0.29 94% 2.6
2 LAFC 5410 174+13 132.60 WWDWW -0.51 +0.07 90% 3.0
3 CDA Slammers FC 6501 283+25 152.50 WWWWL -0.73 +0.07 100% 1.3
4 Sporting California USA 3210 83+5 72.33 DWW -1.36 +0.21 15% 6.4
5 Pateadores Soccer Club 4211 113+8 71.75 LDWW -1.79 +0.34 19% 6.0
6 San Diego Surf 4202 194+15 61.50 WLWL -1.41 +0.20 57% 4.4
7 Legends FC 5212 46-2 71.40 WWLDL +0.92 -0.15 2% 8.0
8 Rebels SC 4121 77+0 51.25 LDWD +0.41 -0.02 3% 7.8
9 SDSC Surf 5203 105+5 61.20 LLWWL +0.53 -0.11 21% 5.9
10 Beach Futbol Club 3102 512-7 31.00 LLW +1.15 -0.01 0% 10.2
11 West Coast FC 5113 712-5 40.80 WDLLL +0.29 +0.09 0% 10.3
12 Legends FC Del Mar 6015 329-26 10.17 LLDLL +0.49 +0.22 0% 12.2
13 LV Heat Surf SC 8017 449-45 10.13 LDLLL +0.53 +0.33 0% 12.8

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.98 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.