TableChase Clubs

LA Breakers FC

ECNL Boys · Southwest BU13 · 13 teams · LA Breakers FC (all teams)

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1st
5-1-0 record · 6 played
2.67 points per game
+14 goal diff · 15–1
WWDWWlast 5
93% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.6
-0.91 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Nov 7, 11:00 AM

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LA Breakers FC
1st · 2.67 PPG
at
SDSC Surf
9th · 1.20 PPG

Ryan Park, Field 11 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 1–0 (expected goals 1.3 for, 0.9 against · 1.66 expected points)

Season so farLA Breakers FCSDSC Surf
Position1st9th
Record (W-D-L)5-1-02-0-3
Points per game2.671.20
Goals for / game2.52.0
Goals against / game0.21.0
Clean sheets51
Held scoreless03
Form (recent first)W W D W WL W W L L
Biggest win5–0 vs Legends FC Del Mar8–0 at LV Heat Surf SC
Worst loss—0–2 vs CDA Slammers FC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.24+0.69
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.91+0.53

Common opponents: LV Heat Surf SC — we 2–0; they 8–0. CDA Slammers FC — we 2–0; they 0–1, 0–2.

Game plan

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 46% / draw 28% / loss 26%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Away game
    Kickoff 11:00 AM at Ryan Park.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the SDSC Surf game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (LA Breakers FC – SDSC Surf) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Nov 2 – Sun Nov 8); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.71 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Win
2.71 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Draw
2.43 PPG
3rd▼ down 2 3rd▼ down 2 4th▼ down 3
Loss
2.29 PPG
4th▼ down 3 4th▼ down 3 4th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–0 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

14% finish 1st
93% top 4
7% below the top 4
2.6 average finish
  1. 1st 14%
  2. 2nd 39%
  3. 3rd 28%
  4. 4th 13%
  5. 5th 5%
  6. 6th 2%
  7. 7th <1%
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

19 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link LA Breakers FC to SDSC Surf through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

4 favour us
2 even
13 favour them
-1.7 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–0 1–0 2–0 2–0 0–8 5–0 0–6 1–0 1–0 0–0 1–2 0–8 4–0 1–1 1–2 6–0 3–3 LA Breakers FC 1st CDA Slammers FC 3rd LV Heat Surf SC 13th Legends FC Del Mar 12th Rebels SC 8th Pateadores Soccer C… 5th LAFC 2nd Legends FC 7th SDSC Surf 9th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

1st 7th 13th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 24 Sep 27 Oct 4 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.29 · 3rd hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Nov 7
11:00 AM
SDSC Surf
9th · 2-0-3 · GD +5
Away far trip
Ryan Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
46%
1–0 1.66 2.52 Swing game
Sun Nov 8
11:00 AM
San Diego Surf
6th · 2-0-2 · GD +15
Away far trip
Surf Sports Park
●●●●○ Tough
40%
1–1 1.44 2.39 Upside
Sun Nov 22
09:00 AM
Beach Futbol Club
10th · 1-0-2 · GD -7
Away far trip
El Camino College
●○○○○ Favorable
76%
2–0 2.43 2.39 Bank it
Sat Dec 12
09:00 AM
LAFC
2nd · 4-1-0 · GD +13
Home
Bell Gardens Sports Complex
●●●○○ Toss-up
47%
1–1 1.65 2.32 Swing game
Sat Feb 6
09:00 AM
Pateadores Soccer Club
5th · 2-1-1 · GD +8
Home
Bell Gardens Sports Complex
●●●○○ Toss-up
55%
1–0 1.90 2.28 Swing game
Sat Mar 6
09:00 AM
San Diego Surf
6th · 2-0-2 · GD +15
Home
Bell Gardens Sports Complex
●●●○○ Toss-up
48%
1–1 1.69 2.23 Swing game
Sun Mar 14
TBD
Sporting California USA
4th · 2-1-0 · GD +5
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
52%
1–0 1.81 2.20 Swing game
Sat Mar 20
TBD
CDA Slammers FC
3rd · 5-0-1 · GD +25
Away
●●●●○ Tough
26%
1–1 1.02 2.11 Upside
Sat Apr 3
TBD
SDSC Surf
9th · 2-0-3 · GD +5
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
53%
1–0 1.87 2.10 Swing game
Sat Apr 17
TBD
Sporting California USA
4th · 2-1-0 · GD +5
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
60%
1–0 2.03 2.09 Swing game
Sun Apr 18
04:00 PM
Rebels SC
8th · 1-2-1 · GD +0
Away far trip
Monte Vista High School · turf?
●●○○○ Lean win
59%
1–0 2.00 2.09 Swing game
Sat May 1
TBD
LAFC
2nd · 4-1-0 · GD +13
Away
●●●●○ Tough
39%
1–1 1.42 2.05 Upside
Sun May 2
01:00 PM
West Coast FC
11th · 1-1-3 · GD -5
Home
Bell Gardens Sports Complex
●○○○○ Favorable
78%
2–0 2.48 2.07 Bank it
Sat May 8
TBD
Legends FC
7th · 2-1-2 · GD -2
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
64%
1–0 2.16 2.08 Swing game
Sun May 9
10:00 AM
West Coast FC
11th · 1-1-3 · GD -5
Away far trip
Saddleback College
●●○○○ Lean win
71%
2–0 2.30 2.09 Bank it
Sat May 15
TBD
Beach Futbol Club
10th · 1-0-2 · GD -7
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
83%
3–0 2.60 2.11 Bank it
Sun May 16
09:00 AM
Legends FC
7th · 2-1-2 · GD -2
Away far trip
Ontario Sports Empire
●●●○○ Toss-up
57%
1–0 1.98 2.11 Swing game
Sat May 22
TBD
LV Heat Surf SC
13th · 0-1-7 · GD -45
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
97%
4–0 2.93 2.14 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 LA Breakers FC 6510 151+14 162.67 WWDWW -0.91 +0.29 93% 2.6
2 LAFC 5410 174+13 132.60 WWDWW -0.51 +0.07 88% 3.0
3 CDA Slammers FC 6501 283+25 152.50 WWWWL -0.73 +0.07 100% 1.3
4 Sporting California USA 3210 83+5 72.33 DWW -1.36 +0.21 15% 6.4
5 Pateadores Soccer Club 4211 113+8 71.75 LDWW -1.79 +0.34 19% 6.0
6 San Diego Surf 4202 194+15 61.50 WLWL -1.41 +0.20 60% 4.3
7 Legends FC 5212 46-2 71.40 WWLDL +0.92 -0.15 2% 8.2
8 Rebels SC 4121 77+0 51.25 LDWD +0.41 -0.02 2% 7.8
9 SDSC Surf 5203 105+5 61.20 LLWWL +0.53 -0.11 20% 5.9
10 Beach Futbol Club 3102 512-7 31.00 LLW +1.15 -0.01 0% 10.2
11 West Coast FC 5113 712-5 40.80 WDLLL +0.29 +0.09 0% 10.3
12 Legends FC Del Mar 6015 329-26 10.17 LLDLL +0.49 +0.22 0% 12.2
13 LV Heat Surf SC 8017 449-45 10.13 LDLLL +0.53 +0.33 0% 12.8

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.98 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.