San Diego Surf
ECNL Boys · Southwest BU13 · 13 teams · San Diego Surf Soccer Club (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:00 AM
San Bernardino Valley College, Grass ↗ · grass far trip
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.5 for, 1.8 against · 1.76 expected points)
| Season so far | San Diego Surf | Sporting California USA |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 6th | 4th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-0-2 | 2-1-0 |
| Points per game | 1.50 | 2.33 |
| Goals for / game | 4.8 | 2.7 |
| Goals against / game | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | L W L W | W W D |
| Biggest win | 11–1 at LV Heat Surf SC | 5–2 at Legends FC Del Mar |
| Worst loss | 0–1 vs Legends FC | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +1.64 | +0.57 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -1.41 | -1.36 |
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–1 vs Legends FC.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 52% / draw 19% / loss 29%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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Grass field
Venue listed as "Grass" at San Bernardino Valley College.If the team trains on turf: the ball will be slower and bounce less true. Weight passes harder, favour early crosses in the final third, and bring FG/SG cleats. Warm up on the field, not the track.
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Away game
Kickoff 09:00 AM at San Bernardino Valley College.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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Early kickoff
Game time 09:00 AM.Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.
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What a win does
Pateadores Soccer Club sit 5th on 1.75 PPG; we are on 1.50.A point moves us above Pateadores Soccer Club on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Sporting California USA game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (San Diego Surf – Sporting California USA) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.80 PPG |
4th▲ up 2 | 4th▲ up 2 | 6th— holds |
| Win 1.80 PPG |
4th▲ up 2 | 4th▲ up 2 | 6th— holds |
| Draw 1.40 PPG |
6th— holds | 6th— holds | 10th▼ down 4 |
| Loss 1.20 PPG |
8th▼ down 2 | 8th▼ down 2 | 10th▼ down 4 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 4th if every rival drops points, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 2%
- 2nd 10%
- 3rd 17%
- 4th 31%
- 5th 18%
- 6th 12%
- 7th 8%
- 8th 2%
- 9th 1%
- 10th <1%
- 11th
- 12th
- 13th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 20 remaining known games (max 2.75 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LA Breakers FC | 2.67 (+1.17) | 2nd (2.14) | 59 of 60 pts to pass their current pace, 46 for their projection |
| 2 | LAFC | 2.60 (+1.10) | 3rd (2.05) | 57 of 60 pts to pass their current pace, 44 for their projection |
| 3 | CDA Slammers FC | 2.50 (+1.00) | 1st (2.41) | 54 of 60 pts to pass their current pace, 52 for their projection |
| 4 | Sporting California USA | 2.33 (+0.83) | 7th (1.59) | 50 of 60 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection |
| 5 | Pateadores Soccer Club | 1.75 (+0.25) | 6th (1.62) | A point next game |
How the results connect
3 chains · 5 teams
Paths of results that link San Diego Surf to Sporting California USA through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
11 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.20 · 6th hardest of 13
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 3 08:00 AM no score posted |
CDA Slammers FC 3rd · 5-0-1 · GD +25 |
Away far trip
Santiago High School · turf? |
●●●●● Very tough | 19% |
1–2 | 0.74 | 1.35 | Upside |
| Sat Oct 24 09:00 AM |
Sporting California USA 4th · 2-1-0 · GD +5 |
Away far trip
San Bernardino Valley College · grass |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 52% |
2–1 | 1.76 | 1.42 | Swing game |
| Sat Oct 31 09:00 AM |
Legends FC 7th · 2-1-2 · GD -2 |
Away far trip
Silverlakes Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 61% |
2–1 | 2.04 | 1.51 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 7 11:00 AM |
CDA Slammers FC 3rd · 5-0-1 · GD +25 |
Home Surf Sports Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 28% |
1–2 | 1.01 | 1.44 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 8 11:00 AM |
LA Breakers FC 1st · 5-1-0 · GD +14 |
Home Surf Sports Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 36% |
1–1 | 1.32 | 1.43 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 15 06:15 PM |
LAFC 2nd · 4-1-0 · GD +13 |
Away far trip
Oak Park High School · turf? |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.41 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 6 09:00 AM |
LA Breakers FC 1st · 5-1-0 · GD +14 |
Away far trip
Bell Gardens Sports Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 28% |
1–1 | 1.07 | 1.38 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 13 10:15 AM |
Rebels SC 8th · 1-2-1 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Monte Vista High School · turf? |
●●○○○ Lean win | 61% |
2–1 | 2.01 | 1.43 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 14 11:00 AM |
Legends FC Del Mar 12th · 0-1-5 · GD -26 |
Home Surf Sports Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 98% |
6–0 | 2.96 | 1.55 | Bank it |
| Sat Mar 20 12:40 PM |
SDSC Surf 9th · 2-0-3 · GD +5 |
Away far trip
Maranatha Christian School |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 46% |
1–1 | 1.59 | 1.55 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 3 11:00 AM |
LV Heat Surf SC 13th · 0-1-7 · GD -45 |
Home Surf Sports Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 99% |
8–0 | 2.99 | 1.65 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 4 11:00 AM |
Sporting California USA 4th · 2-1-0 · GD +5 |
Home Surf Sports Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 63% |
2–1 | 2.05 | 1.67 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 10 TBD |
West Coast FC 11th · 1-1-3 · GD -5 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 76% |
3–1 | 2.40 | 1.72 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 17 11:00 AM |
Rebels SC 8th · 1-2-1 · GD +0 |
Home Surf Sports Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 71% |
3–1 | 2.28 | 1.75 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 24 11:00 AM |
Pateadores Soccer Club 5th · 2-1-1 · GD +8 |
Home Surf Sports Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 57% |
2–1 | 1.89 | 1.76 | Swing game |
| Sun May 2 02:00 PM |
LAFC 2nd · 4-1-0 · GD +13 |
Home Surf Sports Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 45% |
2–2 | 1.55 | 1.74 | Swing game |
| Sun May 9 09:00 AM |
Legends FC Del Mar 12th · 0-1-5 · GD -26 |
Away San Dieguito Academy |
●○○○○ Favorable | 96% |
5–0 | 2.92 | 1.80 | Bank it |
| Sat May 15 11:00 AM |
SDSC Surf 9th · 2-0-3 · GD +5 |
Home Surf Sports Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 55% |
2–1 | 1.86 | 1.80 | Swing game |
| Sat May 22 TBD |
Pateadores Soccer Club 5th · 2-1-1 · GD +8 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–1 | 1.61 | 1.79 | Swing game |
| Sat May 29 11:00 AM |
West Coast FC 11th · 1-1-3 · GD -5 |
Home Surf Sports Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 83% |
3–1 | 2.59 | 1.83 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | LA Breakers FC | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 1 | +14 | 16 | 2.67 | WWDWW | -0.91 | +0.29 | 93% | 2.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 at SDSC Surf · Sun Nov 8 at San Diego Surf · Sun Nov 22 at Beach Futbol Club See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | LAFC | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 4 | +13 | 13 | 2.60 | WWDWW | -0.51 | +0.07 | 88% | 3.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Legends FC Del Mar · Sun Oct 25 at SDSC Surf · Sun Nov 1 at Beach Futbol Club See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | CDA Slammers FC | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 28 | 3 | +25 | 15 | 2.50 | WWWWL | -0.73 | +0.07 | 100% | 1.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 vs San Diego Surf · Sat Oct 24 vs Pateadores Soccer Club · Sun Oct 25 vs Rebels SC See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Sporting California USA | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 7 | 2.33 | DWW | -1.36 | +0.21 | 16% | 6.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 vs Pateadores Soccer Club · Sat Oct 24 vs San Diego Surf · Sat Oct 31 at Pateadores Soccer Club See all 21 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Pateadores Soccer Club | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 3 | +8 | 7 | 1.75 | LDWW | -1.79 | +0.34 | 19% | 6.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 at Sporting California USA · Sat Oct 24 at CDA Slammers FC · Sat Oct 31 vs Sporting California USA See all 20 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | San Diego Surf | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 4 | +15 | 6 | 1.50 | WLWL | -1.41 | +0.20 | 59% | 4.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 at CDA Slammers FC · Sat Oct 24 at Sporting California USA · Sat Oct 31 at Legends FC See all 20 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Legends FC | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 7 | 1.40 | WWLDL | +0.92 | -0.15 | 2% | 8.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs SDSC Surf · Sat Oct 31 vs San Diego Surf · Sun Nov 8 vs West Coast FC See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Rebels SC | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 7 | +0 | 5 | 1.25 | LDWD | +0.41 | -0.02 | 3% | 7.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Beach Futbol Club · Sun Oct 25 at CDA Slammers FC · Sun Nov 1 vs Sporting California USA See all 20 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | SDSC Surf | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 6 | 1.20 | LLWWL | +0.53 | -0.11 | 20% | 5.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 4 at Beach Futbol Club · Sat Oct 24 at Legends FC · Sun Oct 25 vs LAFC See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Beach Futbol Club | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 3 | 1.00 | LLW | +1.15 | -0.01 | 0% | 10.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 4 vs SDSC Surf · Sat Oct 24 at Rebels SC · Sat Oct 31 vs Legends FC Del Mar See all 21 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | West Coast FC | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 4 | 0.80 | WDLLL | +0.29 | +0.09 | 0% | 10.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at LV Heat Surf SC · Sat Nov 7 vs Beach Futbol Club · Sun Nov 8 at Legends FC See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Legends FC Del Mar | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 29 | -26 | 1 | 0.17 | LLDLL | +0.49 | +0.22 | 0% | 12.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs LAFC · Sat Oct 31 at Beach Futbol Club · Sun Nov 1 at CDA Slammers FC See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | LV Heat Surf SC | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 49 | -45 | 1 | 0.13 | LDLLL | +0.53 | +0.33 | 0% | 12.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs West Coast FC · Sat Nov 14 vs Rebels SC · Sun Mar 14 at Legends FC See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.98 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.