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San Diego Surf

ECNL Boys · Southwest BU13 · 13 teams · San Diego Surf Soccer Club (all teams)

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6th
2-0-2 record · 4 played
1.50 points per game
+15 goal diff · 19–4
WLWLlast 4
59% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.4
-1.41 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:00 AM

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San Diego Surf
6th · 1.50 PPG
at

San Bernardino Valley College, Grass ↗ · grass far trip

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.5 for, 1.8 against · 1.76 expected points)

Season so farSan Diego SurfSporting California USA
Position6th4th
Record (W-D-L)2-0-22-1-0
Points per game1.502.33
Goals for / game4.82.7
Goals against / game1.01.0
Clean sheets11
Held scoreless10
Form (recent first)L W L WW W D
Biggest win11–1 at LV Heat Surf SC5–2 at Legends FC Del Mar
Worst loss0–1 vs Legends FC—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.64+0.57
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-1.41-1.36

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–1 vs Legends FC.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 52% / draw 19% / loss 29%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Grass field
    Venue listed as "Grass" at San Bernardino Valley College.

    If the team trains on turf: the ball will be slower and bounce less true. Weight passes harder, favour early crosses in the final third, and bring FG/SG cleats. Warm up on the field, not the track.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 09:00 AM at San Bernardino Valley College.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

  • What a win does
    Pateadores Soccer Club sit 5th on 1.75 PPG; we are on 1.50.

    A point moves us above Pateadores Soccer Club on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Sporting California USA game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (San Diego Surf – Sporting California USA) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 1.80 PPG
4th▲ up 2 4th▲ up 2 6th— holds
Win
1.80 PPG
4th▲ up 2 4th▲ up 2 6th— holds
Draw
1.40 PPG
6th— holds 6th— holds 10th▼ down 4
Loss
1.20 PPG
8th▼ down 2 8th▼ down 2 10th▼ down 4

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 4th if every rival drops points, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

2% finish 1st
59% top 4
41% below the top 4
4.4 average finish
  1. 1st 2%
  2. 2nd 10%
  3. 3rd 17%
  4. 4th 31%
  5. 5th 18%
  6. 6th 12%
  7. 7th 8%
  8. 8th 2%
  9. 9th 1%
  10. 10th <1%
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 20 remaining known games (max 2.75 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 LA Breakers FC 2.67 (+1.17) 2nd (2.14) 59 of 60 pts to pass their current pace, 46 for their projection
2 LAFC 2.60 (+1.10) 3rd (2.05) 57 of 60 pts to pass their current pace, 44 for their projection
3 CDA Slammers FC 2.50 (+1.00) 1st (2.41) 54 of 60 pts to pass their current pace, 52 for their projection
4 Sporting California USA 2.33 (+0.83) 7th (1.59) 50 of 60 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection
5 Pateadores Soccer Club 1.75 (+0.25) 6th (1.62) A point next game

How the results connect

3 chains · 5 teams

Paths of results that link San Diego Surf to Sporting California USA through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

3 favour us
0 favour them
+5.7 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
11–1 1–5 0–2 1–1 1–1 2–5 San Diego Surf 6th LV Heat Surf SC 13th West Coast FC 11th Legends FC Del Mar 12th Sporting California… 4th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

3 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

1st 7th 13th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 24 Sep 27 Oct 4 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.20 · 6th hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 3
08:00 AM
no score posted
CDA Slammers FC
3rd · 5-0-1 · GD +25
Away far trip
Santiago High School · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
19%
1–2 0.74 1.35 Upside
Sat Oct 24
09:00 AM
Sporting California USA
4th · 2-1-0 · GD +5
Away far trip
San Bernardino Valley College · grass
●●●○○ Toss-up
52%
2–1 1.76 1.42 Swing game
Sat Oct 31
09:00 AM
Legends FC
7th · 2-1-2 · GD -2
Away far trip
Silverlakes Complex
●●○○○ Lean win
61%
2–1 2.04 1.51 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
11:00 AM
CDA Slammers FC
3rd · 5-0-1 · GD +25
Home
Surf Sports Park
●●●●○ Tough
28%
1–2 1.01 1.44 Upside
Sun Nov 8
11:00 AM
LA Breakers FC
1st · 5-1-0 · GD +14
Home
Surf Sports Park
●●●●○ Tough
36%
1–1 1.32 1.43 Upside
Sun Nov 15
06:15 PM
LAFC
2nd · 4-1-0 · GD +13
Away far trip
Oak Park High School · turf?
●●●●○ Tough
35%
2–2 1.24 1.41 Upside
Sat Mar 6
09:00 AM
LA Breakers FC
1st · 5-1-0 · GD +14
Away far trip
Bell Gardens Sports Complex
●●●●○ Tough
28%
1–1 1.07 1.38 Upside
Sat Mar 13
10:15 AM
Rebels SC
8th · 1-2-1 · GD +0
Away far trip
Monte Vista High School · turf?
●●○○○ Lean win
61%
2–1 2.01 1.43 Swing game
Sun Mar 14
11:00 AM
Legends FC Del Mar
12th · 0-1-5 · GD -26
Home
Surf Sports Park
●○○○○ Favorable
98%
6–0 2.96 1.55 Bank it
Sat Mar 20
12:40 PM
SDSC Surf
9th · 2-0-3 · GD +5
Away far trip
Maranatha Christian School
●●●○○ Toss-up
46%
1–1 1.59 1.55 Swing game
Sat Apr 3
11:00 AM
LV Heat Surf SC
13th · 0-1-7 · GD -45
Home
Surf Sports Park
●○○○○ Favorable
99%
8–0 2.99 1.65 Bank it
Sun Apr 4
11:00 AM
Sporting California USA
4th · 2-1-0 · GD +5
Home
Surf Sports Park
●●○○○ Lean win
63%
2–1 2.05 1.67 Swing game
Sat Apr 10
TBD
West Coast FC
11th · 1-1-3 · GD -5
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
76%
3–1 2.40 1.72 Bank it
Sat Apr 17
11:00 AM
Rebels SC
8th · 1-2-1 · GD +0
Home
Surf Sports Park
●●○○○ Lean win
71%
3–1 2.28 1.75 Bank it
Sat Apr 24
11:00 AM
Pateadores Soccer Club
5th · 2-1-1 · GD +8
Home
Surf Sports Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
57%
2–1 1.89 1.76 Swing game
Sun May 2
02:00 PM
LAFC
2nd · 4-1-0 · GD +13
Home
Surf Sports Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
45%
2–2 1.55 1.74 Swing game
Sun May 9
09:00 AM
Legends FC Del Mar
12th · 0-1-5 · GD -26
Away
San Dieguito Academy
●○○○○ Favorable
96%
5–0 2.92 1.80 Bank it
Sat May 15
11:00 AM
SDSC Surf
9th · 2-0-3 · GD +5
Home
Surf Sports Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
55%
2–1 1.86 1.80 Swing game
Sat May 22
TBD
Pateadores Soccer Club
5th · 2-1-1 · GD +8
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
47%
2–1 1.61 1.79 Swing game
Sat May 29
11:00 AM
West Coast FC
11th · 1-1-3 · GD -5
Home
Surf Sports Park
●○○○○ Favorable
83%
3–1 2.59 1.83 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 LA Breakers FC 6510 151+14 162.67 WWDWW -0.91 +0.29 93% 2.6
2 LAFC 5410 174+13 132.60 WWDWW -0.51 +0.07 88% 3.0
3 CDA Slammers FC 6501 283+25 152.50 WWWWL -0.73 +0.07 100% 1.3
4 Sporting California USA 3210 83+5 72.33 DWW -1.36 +0.21 16% 6.3
5 Pateadores Soccer Club 4211 113+8 71.75 LDWW -1.79 +0.34 19% 6.1
6 San Diego Surf 4202 194+15 61.50 WLWL -1.41 +0.20 59% 4.4
7 Legends FC 5212 46-2 71.40 WWLDL +0.92 -0.15 2% 8.1
8 Rebels SC 4121 77+0 51.25 LDWD +0.41 -0.02 3% 7.8
9 SDSC Surf 5203 105+5 61.20 LLWWL +0.53 -0.11 20% 5.9
10 Beach Futbol Club 3102 512-7 31.00 LLW +1.15 -0.01 0% 10.2
11 West Coast FC 5113 712-5 40.80 WDLLL +0.29 +0.09 0% 10.3
12 Legends FC Del Mar 6015 329-26 10.17 LLDLL +0.49 +0.22 0% 12.2
13 LV Heat Surf SC 8017 449-45 10.13 LDLLL +0.53 +0.33 0% 12.8

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.98 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.