TableChase Clubs

LAFC

ECNL Boys · Southwest BU13 · 13 teams · LAFC So Cal (all teams)

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2nd
4-1-0 record · 5 played
2.60 points per game
+13 goal diff · 17–4
WWDWWlast 5
89% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.0
-0.51 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 12:30 PM

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LAFC
2nd · 2.60 PPG
at
Legends FC Del Mar
12th · 0.17 PPG

Canyon Crest Academy, Stadium ↗ · turf? far trip

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 5–0 (expected goals 5.0 for, 0.8 against · 2.89 expected points)

Season so farLAFCLegends FC Del Mar
Position2nd12th
Record (W-D-L)4-1-00-1-5
Points per game2.600.17
Goals for / game3.40.5
Goals against / game0.84.8
Clean sheets30
Held scoreless04
Form (recent first)W W D W WL L D L L
Biggest win6–0 vs Legends FC Del Mar—
Worst loss—0–8 vs CDA Slammers FC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.45-2.73
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.51+0.49

Already played this season: Sat Sep 19 6–0 vs Legends FC Del Mar (W)

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    Legends FC Del Mar average 0.5 goals/game (league avg 2.0); blanked in 4 of 6.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    Legends FC Del Mar concede 4.8/game; worst result 0–8 vs CDA Slammers FC.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 95% chance; likely score 5–0.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 12:30 PM at Canyon Crest Academy.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Legends FC Del Mar game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (LAFC – Legends FC Del Mar) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.67 PPG
1st▲ up 1 1st▲ up 1 1st▲ up 1
Win
2.67 PPG
1st▲ up 1 1st▲ up 1 1st▲ up 1
Draw
2.33 PPG
3rd▼ down 1 3rd▼ down 1 4th▼ down 2
Loss
2.17 PPG
4th▼ down 2 3rd▼ down 1 4th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 5–0 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

8% finish 1st
89% top 4
11% below the top 4
3.0 average finish
  1. 1st 8%
  2. 2nd 31%
  3. 3rd 34%
  4. 4th 17%
  5. 5th 7%
  6. 6th 2%
  7. 7th 1%
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 19 remaining known games (max 2.92 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 LA Breakers FC 2.67 (+0.07) 2nd (2.14) 52 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 39 for their projection

How the results connect

10 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link LAFC to Legends FC Del Mar through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

10 favour us
0 favour them
+6.1 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
6–0 3–3 0–1 4–0 4–1 0–2 5–2 5–0 1–1 5–1 1–1 0–4 8–0 1–0 0–2 0–1 8–0 LAFC 2nd Rebels SC 8th West Coast FC 11th SDSC Surf 9th LA Breakers FC 1st Sporting California… 4th LV Heat Surf SC 13th CDA Slammers FC 3rd Legends FC Del Mar 12th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

10 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

1st 7th 13th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 24 Sep 27 Oct 4 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.07 · 9th hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
12:30 PM
Legends FC Del Mar
12th · 0-1-5 · GD -26
Away far trip
Canyon Crest Academy · turf?
●○○○○ Favorable
95%
5–0 2.89 2.65 Bank it
Sun Oct 25
04:00 PM
SDSC Surf
9th · 2-0-3 · GD +5
Away far trip
Westview High School · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up
45%
1–1 1.57 2.49 Swing game
Sun Nov 1
09:00 AM
Beach Futbol Club
10th · 1-0-2 · GD -7
Away far trip
El Camino College · turf?
●○○○○ Favorable
79%
3–1 2.47 2.49 Bank it
Sat Nov 7
03:00 PM
Pateadores Soccer Club
5th · 2-1-1 · GD +8
Away far trip
Great Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
46%
1–1 1.59 2.39 Swing game
Sun Nov 15
06:15 PM
San Diego Surf
6th · 2-0-2 · GD +15
Home
Oak Park High School · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up
46%
2–2 1.56 2.31 Swing game
Sat Dec 12
09:00 AM
LA Breakers FC
1st · 5-1-0 · GD +14
Away far trip
Bell Gardens Sports Complex
●●●●○ Tough
28%
1–1 1.09 2.20 Upside
Sat Mar 6
10:45 AM
Rebels SC
8th · 1-2-1 · GD +0
Home
Oak Park High School · turf?
●●○○○ Lean win
69%
2–1 2.23 2.20 Swing game
Sun Mar 14
TBD
CDA Slammers FC
3rd · 5-0-1 · GD +25
Home
●●●●○ Tough
28%
1–2 1.03 2.11 Upside
Sat Apr 3
TBD
Pateadores Soccer Club
5th · 2-1-1 · GD +8
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
55%
2–1 1.86 2.09 Swing game
Sun Apr 4
TBD
West Coast FC
11th · 1-1-3 · GD -5
Away
●●○○○ Lean win
73%
2–1 2.34 2.11 Bank it
Sun Apr 11
TBD
CDA Slammers FC
3rd · 5-0-1 · GD +25
Away
●●●●● Very tough
20%
1–2 0.78 2.03 Upside
Sat Apr 17
TBD
Beach Futbol Club
10th · 1-0-2 · GD -7
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
86%
4–1 2.66 2.06 Bank it
Sat Apr 24
TBD
Sporting California USA
4th · 2-1-0 · GD +5
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
51%
2–1 1.73 2.04 Swing game
Sun Apr 25
06:15 PM
LV Heat Surf SC
13th · 0-1-7 · GD -45
Home
Oak Park High School · turf?
●○○○○ Favorable
99%
7–0 2.98 2.09 Bank it
Sat May 1
TBD
LA Breakers FC
1st · 5-1-0 · GD +14
Home
●●●●○ Tough
35%
1–1 1.32 2.05 Upside
Sun May 2
02:00 PM
San Diego Surf
6th · 2-0-2 · GD +15
Away far trip
Surf Sports Park
●●●●○ Tough
35%
2–2 1.25 2.02 Upside
Sat May 8
TBD
LV Heat Surf SC
13th · 0-1-7 · GD -45
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
98%
6–0 2.96 2.06 Bank it
Sat May 15
11:00 AM
Legends FC
7th · 2-1-2 · GD -2
Away far trip
Ontario Sports Empire
●●○○○ Lean win
59%
1–0 2.00 2.06 Swing game
Sat May 22
TBD
Sporting California USA
4th · 2-1-0 · GD +5
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
61%
2–1 2.01 2.05 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 LA Breakers FC 6510 151+14 162.67 WWDWW -0.91 +0.29 94% 2.6
2 LAFC 5410 174+13 132.60 WWDWW -0.51 +0.07 89% 3.0
3 CDA Slammers FC 6501 283+25 152.50 WWWWL -0.73 +0.07 100% 1.3
4 Sporting California USA 3210 83+5 72.33 DWW -1.36 +0.21 14% 6.4
5 Pateadores Soccer Club 4211 113+8 71.75 LDWW -1.79 +0.34 18% 6.1
6 San Diego Surf 4202 194+15 61.50 WLWL -1.41 +0.20 59% 4.4
7 Legends FC 5212 46-2 71.40 WWLDL +0.92 -0.15 2% 8.1
8 Rebels SC 4121 77+0 51.25 LDWD +0.41 -0.02 3% 7.8
9 SDSC Surf 5203 105+5 61.20 LLWWL +0.53 -0.11 22% 5.9
10 Beach Futbol Club 3102 512-7 31.00 LLW +1.15 -0.01 0% 10.2
11 West Coast FC 5113 712-5 40.80 WDLLL +0.29 +0.09 0% 10.3
12 Legends FC Del Mar 6015 329-26 10.17 LLDLL +0.49 +0.22 0% 12.2
13 LV Heat Surf SC 8017 449-45 10.13 LDLLL +0.53 +0.33 0% 12.8

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.98 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.