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Reds FC 2

Elite Academy League 2 · South U11 · 14 teams · SoCal Reds FC (all teams)

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3rd
2-2-0 record · 4 played
2.00 points per game
+12 goal diff · 17–5
WDDWlast 4
78% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.3
-0.58 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 02:15 PM

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Reds FC 2
3rd · 2.00 PPG
at
Laguna United 2
8th · 1.60 PPG

Marina Hills Soccer Fields, Marina Hills Lower ↗

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 2–3 (expected goals 2.7 for, 3.0 against · 1.26 expected points)

Season so farReds FC 2Laguna United 2
Position3rd8th
Record (W-D-L)2-2-02-2-1
Points per game2.001.60
Goals for / game4.34.8
Goals against / game1.32.0
Clean sheets11
Held scoreless01
Form (recent first)W D D WW W L D D
Biggest win7–1 at FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2)11–2 at FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2)
Worst loss—2–3 vs AC Brea (2)
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.53+1.75
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.58-0.46

Common opponents: FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) — we 7–1; they 11–2. Rangers FC 2 — we 3–3; they 4–4.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Laguna United 2 score 4.8/game — well above the league's 2.6.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 37%; a draw (17%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 02:15 PM at Marina Hills Soccer Fields.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    ALBION SC Riverside 2 sit 2nd on 2.20 PPG; we are on 2.00.

    A win moves us above ALBION SC Riverside 2 on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Laguna United 2 game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Reds FC 2 – Laguna United 2) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 1.60 PPG
8th▼ down 5 7th▼ down 4 9th▼ down 6
Win
2.20 PPG
3rd— holds 3rd— holds 3rd— holds
Draw
1.80 PPG
3rd— holds 6th▼ down 3 8th▼ down 5
Loss
1.60 PPG
8th▼ down 5 7th▼ down 4 9th▼ down 6

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–3 loss we fall to at least 4th even if every rival loses, and as low as 9th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

6% finish 1st
78% top 4
22% below the top 4
3.3 average finish
  1. 1st 6%
  2. 2nd 30%
  3. 3rd 25%
  4. 4th 18%
  5. 5th 13%
  6. 6th 7%
  7. 7th 2%
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 22 remaining known games (max 2.85 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 AC Brea (2) 3.00 (+1.00) 1st (2.49) 70 of 66 pts to pass their current pace, 57 for their projection
2 ALBION SC Riverside 2 2.20 (+0.20) 4th (1.96) Win next game

How the results connect

6 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Reds FC 2 to Laguna United 2 through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us
1 even
4 favour them
-1.3 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–3 4–4 7–1 2–11 0–2 3–2 1–1 1–2 6–0 2–5 0–0 1–4 Reds FC 2 3rd Rangers FC 2 9th FLYTE SC- Inland Em… 10th Los Angeles SC 2 4th Rayados Academy San… 13th AC Brea (2) 1st Fram Soccer Club 2 6th Laguna United 2 8th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

6 chains

Position over the season

6 game days

1st 7th 14th Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 11 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.06 · 9th hardest of 14

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
02:15 PM
Laguna United 2
8th · 2-2-1 · GD +14
Away
Marina Hills Soccer Fields
●●●●○ Tough
37%
2–3 1.26 1.85 Upside
Sun Nov 8
12:00 AM
AC Brea (2)
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +14
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
32%
1–2 1.17 1.74 Upside
Sun Nov 15
09:00 AM
City SC Los Angeles 2
5th · 2-1-1 · GD +2
Home
Eastwood Community Park
●●○○○ Lean win
66%
2–1 2.16 1.80 Swing game
Sun Dec 13
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Riverside 2
2nd · 3-2-0 · GD +13
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
39%
2–2 1.37 1.74 Upside
Sun Jan 10
12:00 AM
Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club
14th · 0-0-5 · GD -22
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
96%
5–0 2.90 1.87 Bank it
Sun Jan 17
09:00 AM
Fram Soccer Club 2
6th · 2-1-1 · GD +0
Away
Ridgecrest Intermediate · turf
●●○○○ Lean win
62%
2–1 2.01 1.89 Swing game
Sun Jan 24
12:00 AM
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2)
10th · 1-0-2 · GD -12
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
92%
6–1 2.82 1.97 Bank it
Sun Jan 31
12:00 AM
Los Angeles SC 2
4th · 2-1-1 · GD +8
Home
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
52%
2–1 1.74 1.95 Swing game
Sun Feb 7
09:00 AM
Rangers FC 2
9th · 2-2-1 · GD +3
Away
Serrano Elementary
●●●○○ Toss-up
49%
2–2 1.64 1.93 Swing game
Sun Feb 14
12:00 AM
Total Futbol Academy - OC 2
11th · 1-0-3 · GD -7
Away
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
78%
4–1 2.44 1.97 Bank it
Sun Feb 21
12:00 AM
Rayados Academy San Diego
13th · 0-0-5 · GD -18
Away
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
88%
4–1 2.72 2.02 Bank it
Sun Feb 28
12:00 AM
FC Premier
12th · 0-0-2 · GD -6
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
85%
3–1 2.64 2.05 Bank it
Sat Mar 6
09:30 AM
EMPIRE SC
7th · 2-1-1 · GD -1
Away
Eastvale Community Park
●●○○○ Lean win
61%
2–1 2.01 2.05 Swing game
Sun Mar 7
12:00 AM
Laguna United 2
8th · 2-2-1 · GD +14
Home
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
48%
3–2 1.62 2.03 Swing game
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM
AC Brea (2)
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +14
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
24%
1–2 0.89 1.97 Upside
Sat Mar 20
12:00 AM
City SC Los Angeles 2
5th · 2-1-1 · GD +2
Away
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
56%
2–1 1.88 1.96 Swing game
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM
EMPIRE SC
7th · 2-1-1 · GD -1
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
71%
3–1 2.28 1.98 Bank it
Sun Apr 18
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Riverside 2
2nd · 3-2-0 · GD +13
Home
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
51%
2–2 1.70 1.97 Swing game
Sun Apr 25
12:00 AM
Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club
14th · 0-0-5 · GD -22
Away
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
92%
4–1 2.82 2.00 Bank it
Sun May 2
12:00 AM
Fram Soccer Club 2
6th · 2-1-1 · GD +0
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
72%
3–1 2.29 2.01 Bank it
Tue May 25
09:00 AM
Total Futbol Academy - OC 2
11th · 1-0-3 · GD -7
Home
Orchard Park
●○○○○ Favorable
86%
4–1 2.65 2.04 Bank it
Tue May 25
12:00 PM
FC Premier
12th · 0-0-2 · GD -6
Away
Marina High school
●○○○○ Favorable
78%
3–1 2.46 2.06 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 AC Brea (2) 4400 162+14 123.00 WWWW +0.62 -0.32 100% 1.2
2 ALBION SC Riverside 2 5320 207+13 112.20 WWDDW -1.14 +0.12 60% 4.1
3 Reds FC 2 4220 175+12 82.00 WDDW -0.58 -0.06 78% 3.3
4 Los Angeles SC 2 4211 135+8 71.75 WDWL -0.18 -0.08 42% 4.8
5 City SC Los Angeles 2 4211 86+2 71.75 WLWD -0.35 +0.04 3% 7.6
6 Fram Soccer Club 2 4211 99+0 71.75 LDWW -0.31 +0.02 1% 8.0
7 EMPIRE SC 4211 89-1 71.75 WLDW +0.28 -0.07 1% 7.8
8 Laguna United 2 5221 2410+14 81.60 DDLWW -0.46 -0.11 75% 3.5
9 Rangers FC 2 5221 1411+3 81.60 DWDLW +1.33 -0.41 38% 5.0
10 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) 3102 719-12 31.00 LWL +0.43 +0.09 0% 11.6
11 Total Futbol Academy - OC 2 4103 916-7 30.75 LWLL -0.04 +0.09 0% 10.5
12 FC Premier 2002 06-6 00.00 LL +0.04 +0.07 0% 11.2
13 Rayados Academy San Diego 5005 624-18 00.00 LLLLL +0.39 +0.08 0% 12.8
14 Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club 5005 325-22 00.00 LLLLL +0.49 +0.13 0% 13.7

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.61 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.