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EMPIRE SC

Elite Academy League 2 · South U11 · 14 teams · EMPIRE SC (all teams)

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7th
2-1-1 record · 4 played
1.75 points per game
-1 goal diff · 8–9
WLDWlast 4
2% chance of top 4 · expected finish 7.7
+0.28 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 01:50 PM

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EMPIRE SC
7th · 1.75 PPG
vs

Eastvale Community Park, Short Sided Field 14 ↗

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.8 for, 1.2 against · 2.59 expected points)

Season so farEMPIRE SCSporting So-Cal Soccer Club
Position7th14th
Record (W-D-L)2-1-10-0-5
Points per game1.750.00
Goals for / game2.00.6
Goals against / game2.35.0
Clean sheets10
Held scoreless13
Form (recent first)W D L WL L L L L
Biggest win3–0 vs FC Premier—
Worst loss0–6 at AC Brea (2)0–8 at ALBION SC Riverside 2
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.06-2.60
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.28+0.49

Common opponents: ALBION SC Riverside 2 — we 1–1; they 0–8. Total Futbol Academy - OC 2 — we 4–2; they 0–3.

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club average 0.6 goals/game (league avg 2.6); blanked in 3 of 5.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club concede 5.0/game; worst result 0–8 at ALBION SC Riverside 2.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–6 at AC Brea (2).

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 83% chance; likely score 3–1.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Confidence is low on their side
    Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club have lost 5 straight (form: LLLLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

  • What a win does
    Fram Soccer Club 2 sit 6th on 1.75 PPG; we are on 1.75.

    A point moves us above Fram Soccer Club 2 on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (EMPIRE SC – Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.00 PPG
4th▲ up 3 4th▲ up 3 6th▲ up 1
Win
2.00 PPG
4th▲ up 3 4th▲ up 3 7th— holds
Draw
1.60 PPG
9th▼ down 2 7th— holds 9th▼ down 2
Loss
1.40 PPG
9th▼ down 2 9th▼ down 2 10th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–1 win we finish as high as 3rd if every rival drops points, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
2% top 4
98% below the top 4
7.7 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd <1%
  3. 3rd 1%
  4. 4th 2%
  5. 5th 3%
  6. 6th 9%
  7. 7th 25%
  8. 8th 30%
  9. 9th 26%
  10. 10th 4%
  11. 11th 1%
  12. 12th <1%
  13. 13th
  14. 14th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 22 remaining known games (max 2.81 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 AC Brea (2) 3.00 (+1.25) 1st (2.49) 71 of 66 pts to pass their current pace, 58 for their projection
2 ALBION SC Riverside 2 2.20 (+0.45) 4th (1.96) 51 of 66 pts to pass their current pace, 44 for their projection
3 Reds FC 2 2.00 (+0.25) 2nd (2.06) Win next game
4 Los Angeles SC 2 1.75 (+0.00) 5th (1.88) A point next game
5 City SC Los Angeles 2 1.75 (+0.00) 7th (1.47) A point next game
6 Fram Soccer Club 2 1.75 (+0.00) 9th (1.42) A point next game

How the results connect

8 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link EMPIRE SC to Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

8 favour us
0 favour them
+4.2 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
4–2 3–0 1–1 8–0 0–6 5–0 4–2 3–2 7–1 1–1 3–0 3–0 0–3 2–6 EMPIRE SC 7th Total Futbol Academ… 11th ALBION SC Riverside… 2nd AC Brea (2) 1st FC Premier 12th Fram Soccer Club 2 6th Laguna United 2 8th City SC Los Angeles… 5th Sporting So-Cal Soc… 14th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

8 chains

Position over the season

6 game days

1st 7th 14th Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 11 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.07 · 10th hardest of 14

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
01:50 PM
Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club
14th · 0-0-5 · GD -22
Home
Eastvale Community Park
●○○○○ Favorable
83%
3–1 2.59 1.92 Bank it
Sun Nov 8
10:30 AM
Los Angeles SC 2
4th · 2-1-1 · GD +8
Away
Charter Oak High School · grass
●●●●● Very tough
19%
1–2 0.74 1.72 Upside
Sat Nov 14
01:30 PM
Rangers FC 2
9th · 2-2-1 · GD +3
Home
Eastvale Community Park
●●●●○ Tough
33%
2–2 1.17 1.64 Upside
Sun Nov 15
09:00 AM
Fram Soccer Club 2
6th · 2-1-1 · GD +0
Away
Ridgecrest Intermediate · turf
●●●●○ Tough
35%
2–2 1.24 1.59 Upside
Sat Nov 21
09:30 AM
Laguna United 2
8th · 2-2-1 · GD +14
Home
Eastvale Community Park
●●●●● Very tough
22%
2–3 0.81 1.50 Upside
Sun Nov 22
12:00 AM
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2)
10th · 1-0-2 · GD -12
Away
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
62%
3–2 2.01 1.56 Swing game
Sat Dec 5
05:30 PM
City SC Los Angeles 2
5th · 2-1-1 · GD +2
Away
Manhattan Village Field
●●●●○ Tough
32%
1–2 1.15 1.52 Upside
Sun Jan 10
12:00 AM
Rayados Academy San Diego
13th · 0-0-5 · GD -18
Away
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
67%
3–1 2.17 1.57 Swing game
Sun Jan 31
12:00 AM
AC Brea (2)
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +14
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
14%
1–3 0.56 1.49 Upside
Sun Feb 7
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Riverside 2
2nd · 3-2-0 · GD +13
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
17%
1–3 0.66 1.44 Upside
Sun Feb 28
12:00 AM
Total Futbol Academy - OC 2
11th · 1-0-3 · GD -7
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
62%
3–2 2.01 1.47 Swing game
Sat Mar 6
09:30 AM
Reds FC 2
3rd · 2-2-0 · GD +12
Home
Eastvale Community Park
●●●●● Very tough
22%
1–2 0.82 1.43 Upside
Sun Mar 7
12:00 AM
Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club
14th · 0-0-5 · GD -22
Away
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
75%
3–1 2.39 1.49 Bank it
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM
Los Angeles SC 2
4th · 2-1-1 · GD +8
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
27%
1–2 1.00 1.46 Upside
Sat Mar 20
12:00 AM
Fram Soccer Club 2
6th · 2-1-1 · GD +0
Home
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
45%
2–2 1.55 1.47 Swing game
Sun Mar 21
12:00 AM
Laguna United 2
8th · 2-2-1 · GD +14
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
14%
1–3 0.55 1.42 Upside
Sun Apr 4
12:00 AM
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2)
10th · 1-0-2 · GD -12
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
73%
4–2 2.32 1.46 Bank it
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM
Reds FC 2
3rd · 2-2-0 · GD +12
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
15%
1–3 0.58 1.42 Upside
Sun Apr 18
12:00 AM
City SC Los Angeles 2
5th · 2-1-1 · GD +2
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
41%
1–1 1.44 1.42 Upside
Sun Apr 25
12:00 AM
Rayados Academy San Diego
13th · 0-0-5 · GD -18
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
77%
3–1 2.42 1.47 Bank it
Sun May 2
12:00 AM
Rangers FC 2
9th · 2-2-1 · GD +3
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
23%
1–2 0.87 1.44 Upside
Tue May 25
12:00 PM
FC Premier
12th · 0-0-2 · GD -6
Away
Dunrobin field (Behind - St John Bosco HS - Dunrobin (behind turf) · turf
●●●○○ Toss-up
54%
2–1 1.81 1.46 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 AC Brea (2) 4400 162+14 123.00 WWWW +0.62 -0.32 100% 1.2
2 ALBION SC Riverside 2 5320 207+13 112.20 WWDDW -1.14 +0.12 60% 4.1
3 Reds FC 2 4220 175+12 82.00 WDDW -0.58 -0.06 78% 3.3
4 Los Angeles SC 2 4211 135+8 71.75 WDWL -0.18 -0.08 45% 4.7
5 City SC Los Angeles 2 4211 86+2 71.75 WLWD -0.35 +0.04 3% 7.7
6 Fram Soccer Club 2 4211 99+0 71.75 LDWW -0.31 +0.02 2% 8.0
7 EMPIRE SC 4211 89-1 71.75 WLDW +0.28 -0.07 2% 7.7
8 Laguna United 2 5221 2410+14 81.60 DDLWW -0.46 -0.11 75% 3.5
9 Rangers FC 2 5221 1411+3 81.60 DWDLW +1.33 -0.41 36% 5.0
10 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) 3102 719-12 31.00 LWL +0.43 +0.09 0% 11.6
11 Total Futbol Academy - OC 2 4103 916-7 30.75 LWLL -0.04 +0.09 0% 10.5
12 FC Premier 2002 06-6 00.00 LL +0.04 +0.07 0% 11.2
13 Rayados Academy San Diego 5005 624-18 00.00 LLLLL +0.39 +0.08 0% 12.8
14 Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club 5005 325-22 00.00 LLLLL +0.49 +0.13 0% 13.7

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.61 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.