FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2)
Elite Academy League 2 · South U11 · 14 teams · FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 03:00 PM
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–4 (expected goals 1.9 for, 4.6 against · 0.38 expected points)
| Season so far | FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) | Los Angeles SC 2 |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 10th | 4th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-0-2 | 2-1-1 |
| Points per game | 1.00 | 1.75 |
| Goals for / game | 2.3 | 3.3 |
| Goals against / game | 6.3 | 1.3 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | L W L | L W D W |
| Biggest win | 4–1 vs Rayados Academy San Diego | 5–0 at Rayados Academy San Diego |
| Worst loss | 2–11 vs Laguna United 2 | 1–2 at Rangers FC 2 |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -1.92 | +1.06 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.43 | -0.18 |
Common opponents: Reds FC 2 — we 1–7; they 1–1. Rayados Academy San Diego — we 4–1; they 5–0.
Game plan
-
Hard to break down
Los Angeles SC 2 concede only 1.2/game with 1 clean sheet(s).Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
-
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 10%; a draw (9%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Los Angeles SC 2 game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) – Los Angeles SC 2) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.75 PPG |
11th▼ down 1 | 11th▼ down 1 | 11th▼ down 1 |
| Win 1.50 PPG |
9th▲ up 1 | 7th▲ up 3 | 9th▲ up 1 |
| Draw 1.00 PPG |
10th— holds | 10th— holds | 10th— holds |
| Loss 0.75 PPG |
11th▼ down 1 | 11th▼ down 1 | 11th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–4 loss we fall to at least 11th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th <1%
- 8th <1%
- 9th 2%
- 10th 15%
- 11th 27%
- 12th 37%
- 13th 15%
- 14th 3%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 23 remaining known games (max 2.77 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AC Brea (2) | 3.00 (+2.00) | 1st (2.49) | 75 of 69 pts to pass their current pace, 62 for their projection |
| 2 | ALBION SC Riverside 2 | 2.20 (+1.20) | 4th (1.96) | 55 of 69 pts to pass their current pace, 48 for their projection |
| 3 | Reds FC 2 | 2.00 (+1.00) | 2nd (2.06) | 49 of 69 pts to pass their current pace, 51 for their projection |
| 4 | Los Angeles SC 2 | 1.75 (+0.75) | 5th (1.88) | 43 of 69 pts to pass their current pace, 46 for their projection |
| 5 | City SC Los Angeles 2 | 1.75 (+0.75) | 7th (1.47) | 43 of 69 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection |
| 6 | Fram Soccer Club 2 | 1.75 (+0.75) | 9th (1.42) | 43 of 69 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection |
| 7 | EMPIRE SC | 1.75 (+0.75) | 8th (1.46) | 43 of 69 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection |
| 8 | Laguna United 2 | 1.60 (+0.60) | 3rd (2.02) | 39 of 69 pts to pass their current pace, 50 for their projection |
| 9 | Rangers FC 2 | 1.60 (+0.60) | 6th (1.85) | 39 of 69 pts to pass their current pace, 46 for their projection |
How the results connect
6 chains · 6 teams
Paths of results that link FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) to Los Angeles SC 2 through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
6 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.09 · 3rd hardest of 14
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 25 03:00 PM |
Los Angeles SC 2 4th · 2-1-1 · GD +8 |
Home RJRSP |
●●●●● Very tough | 10% |
1–4 | 0.38 | 0.84 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 8 02:00 PM |
Total Futbol Academy - OC 2 11th · 1-0-3 · GD -7 |
Home RJRSP |
●●●●○ Tough | 37% |
3–3 | 1.28 | 0.93 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 15 03:00 PM |
Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club 14th · 0-0-5 · GD -22 |
Away Pacific Community Center |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 58% |
3–2 | 1.89 | 1.09 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 21 12:00 AM |
FC Premier 12th · 0-0-2 · GD -6 |
Home TBD |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 44% |
2–2 | 1.49 | 1.15 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 22 12:00 AM |
EMPIRE SC 7th · 2-1-1 · GD -1 |
Home TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 23% |
2–3 | 0.84 | 1.11 | Upside |
| Sun Dec 6 09:00 AM |
Rangers FC 2 9th · 2-2-1 · GD +3 |
Away Serrano Elementary |
●●●●● Very tough | 7% |
1–5 | 0.29 | 1.02 | Upside |
| Sun Dec 13 02:30 PM |
AC Brea (2) 1st · 4-0-0 · GD +14 |
Away Brea Sports Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 2% |
1–6 | 0.07 | 0.92 | Upside |
| Sun Jan 10 12:00 AM |
City SC Los Angeles 2 5th · 2-1-1 · GD +2 |
Home TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 21% |
2–3 | 0.76 | 0.91 | Upside |
| Sun Jan 17 12:00 AM |
ALBION SC Riverside 2 2nd · 3-2-0 · GD +13 |
Home TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 8% |
1–5 | 0.32 | 0.86 | Upside |
| Sun Jan 24 12:00 AM |
Reds FC 2 3rd · 2-2-0 · GD +12 |
Away TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 3% |
1–6 | 0.14 | 0.81 | Upside |
| Sun Feb 7 12:00 AM |
Rayados Academy San Diego 13th · 0-0-5 · GD -18 |
Away TBD |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 45% |
3–3 | 1.52 | 0.86 | Swing game |
| Sun Feb 14 12:00 AM |
Fram Soccer Club 2 6th · 2-1-1 · GD +0 |
Home TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 23% |
2–3 | 0.83 | 0.85 | Upside |
| Sun Feb 28 12:00 AM |
Laguna United 2 8th · 2-2-1 · GD +14 |
Away TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 3% |
1–7 | 0.12 | 0.81 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 7 12:00 AM |
Los Angeles SC 2 4th · 2-1-1 · GD +8 |
Away TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 5% |
1–5 | 0.22 | 0.77 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 14 12:00 AM |
Total Futbol Academy - OC 2 11th · 1-0-3 · GD -7 |
Away TBD |
●●●●○ Tough | 26% |
3–4 | 0.90 | 0.78 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 20 12:00 AM |
Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club 14th · 0-0-5 · GD -22 |
Home TBD |
●●○○○ Lean win | 70% |
4–2 | 2.22 | 0.86 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 4 12:00 AM |
EMPIRE SC 7th · 2-1-1 · GD -1 |
Away TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 15% |
2–4 | 0.56 | 0.84 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 11 12:00 AM |
Rangers FC 2 9th · 2-2-1 · GD +3 |
Home TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 13% |
2–4 | 0.48 | 0.83 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 18 12:00 AM |
AC Brea (2) 1st · 4-0-0 · GD +14 |
Home TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 3% |
1–5 | 0.14 | 0.79 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 25 12:00 AM |
City SC Los Angeles 2 5th · 2-1-1 · GD +2 |
Away TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 13% |
1–3 | 0.51 | 0.78 | Upside |
| Sun May 2 12:00 AM |
ALBION SC Riverside 2 2nd · 3-2-0 · GD +13 |
Away TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 4% |
1–5 | 0.18 | 0.76 | Upside |
| Tue May 25 12:00 PM |
FC Premier 12th · 0-0-2 · GD -6 |
Away St John Bosco High School · turf |
●●●●○ Tough | 33% |
2–3 | 1.15 | 0.77 | Upside |
| Mon May 31 09:00 AM |
Fram Soccer Club 2 6th · 2-1-1 · GD +0 |
Away Ridgecrest Intermediate · turf |
●●●●● Very tough | 15% |
2–4 | 0.56 | 0.76 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AC Brea (2) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 2 | +14 | 12 | 3.00 | WWWW | +0.62 | -0.32 | 100% | 1.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs City SC Los Angeles 2 · Sun Nov 8 at Reds FC 2 · Sun Nov 15 at Rayados Academy San Diego See all 22 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | ALBION SC Riverside 2 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 20 | 7 | +13 | 11 | 2.20 | WWDDW | -1.14 | +0.12 | 59% | 4.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 8 vs Fram Soccer Club 2 · Sat Nov 21 at Los Angeles SC 2 · Sun Nov 22 at Laguna United 2 See all 21 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | Reds FC 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 17 | 5 | +12 | 8 | 2.00 | WDDW | -0.58 | -0.06 | 78% | 3.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Laguna United 2 · Sun Nov 8 vs AC Brea (2) · Sun Nov 15 vs City SC Los Angeles 2 See all 22 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | Los Angeles SC 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 7 | 1.75 | WDWL | -0.18 | -0.08 | 45% | 4.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) · Sun Nov 8 vs EMPIRE SC · Sat Nov 21 vs ALBION SC Riverside 2 See all 22 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | City SC Los Angeles 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 7 | 1.75 | WLWD | -0.35 | +0.04 | 3% | 7.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at AC Brea (2) · Sat Nov 7 vs Fram Soccer Club 2 · Sun Nov 15 at Reds FC 2 See all 22 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | Fram Soccer Club 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 9 | +0 | 7 | 1.75 | LDWW | -0.31 | +0.02 | 2% | 8.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Rangers FC 2 · Sat Nov 7 at City SC Los Angeles 2 · Sun Nov 8 at ALBION SC Riverside 2 See all 22 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | EMPIRE SC | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 7 | 1.75 | WLDW | +0.28 | -0.07 | 2% | 7.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club · Sun Nov 8 at Los Angeles SC 2 · Sat Nov 14 vs Rangers FC 2 See all 22 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8 | Laguna United 2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 24 | 10 | +14 | 8 | 1.60 | DDLWW | -0.46 | -0.11 | 74% | 3.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Reds FC 2 · Sun Nov 8 vs FC Premier · Sun Nov 15 vs Total Futbol Academy - OC 2 See all 21 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 9 | Rangers FC 2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 8 | 1.60 | DWDLW | +1.33 | -0.41 | 38% | 5.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Fram Soccer Club 2 · Sun Nov 8 at Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club · Sat Nov 14 at EMPIRE SC See all 21 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 10 | FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 19 | -12 | 3 | 1.00 | LWL | +0.43 | +0.09 | 0% | 11.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Los Angeles SC 2 · Sun Nov 8 vs Total Futbol Academy - OC 2 · Sun Nov 15 at Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club See all 23 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 11 | Total Futbol Academy - OC 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 16 | -7 | 3 | 0.75 | LWLL | -0.04 | +0.09 | 0% | 10.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 8 at FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) · Sun Nov 15 at Laguna United 2 · Sat Nov 21 vs Rangers FC 2 See all 22 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 12 | FC Premier | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 0 | 0.00 | LL | +0.04 | +0.07 | 0% | 11.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 8 at Laguna United 2 · Sat Nov 21 at FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) · Sun Feb 21 at Fram Soccer Club 2 See all 24 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 13 | Rayados Academy San Diego | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 24 | -18 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.39 | +0.08 | 0% | 12.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 15 vs AC Brea (2) · Sat Nov 21 vs Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club · Sun Nov 22 at Total Futbol Academy - OC 2 See all 21 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 14 | Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 25 | -22 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.49 | +0.13 | 0% | 13.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at EMPIRE SC · Sun Nov 8 vs Rangers FC 2 · Sun Nov 15 vs FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) See all 21 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.61 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.