TableChase Clubs

ALBION SC Riverside 2

Elite Academy League 2 · South U11 · 14 teams · ALBION SC Riverside (all teams)

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2nd
3-2-0 record · 5 played
2.20 points per game
+13 goal diff · 20–7
WWDDWlast 5
61% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.1
-1.14 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Nov 8, 11:00 AM

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ALBION SC Riverside 2
2nd · 2.20 PPG
vs
Fram Soccer Club 2
6th · 1.75 PPG

Galway Downs, 6A ↗

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.3 for, 1.7 against · 2.19 expected points)

Season so farALBION SC Riverside 2Fram Soccer Club 2
Position2nd6th
Record (W-D-L)3-2-02-1-1
Points per game2.201.75
Goals for / game4.02.3
Goals against / game1.42.3
Clean sheets11
Held scoreless02
Form (recent first)W D D W WW W D L
Biggest win8–0 vs Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club5–2 vs Rayados Academy San Diego
Worst loss—0–5 vs AC Brea (2)
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.30-0.05
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-1.14-0.31

Common opponents: Rayados Academy San Diego — we 4–3; they 5–2. Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club — we 8–0; they 4–2.

Game plan

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 68% / draw 15% / loss 17%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Fram Soccer Club 2 game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (ALBION SC Riverside 2 – Fram Soccer Club 2) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Nov 2 – Sun Nov 8); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.33 PPG
2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Win
2.33 PPG
2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Draw
2.00 PPG
2nd— holds 2nd— holds 3rd▼ down 1
Loss
1.83 PPG
4th▼ down 2 5th▼ down 3 8th▼ down 6

Can we move up this round? No. With a 3–1 win we stay 2nd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

2% finish 1st
61% top 4
39% below the top 4
4.1 average finish
  1. 1st 2%
  2. 2nd 17%
  3. 3rd 20%
  4. 4th 21%
  5. 5th 18%
  6. 6th 14%
  7. 7th 5%
  8. 8th 1%
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th <1%
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 21 remaining known games (max 2.85 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 AC Brea (2) 3.00 (+0.80) 1st (2.49) 67 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 54 for their projection

How the results connect

6 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link ALBION SC Riverside 2 to Fram Soccer Club 2 through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

4 favour us
2 favour them
+1.8 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
4–3 2–5 8–0 2–4 1–1 3–0 1–1 0–6 5–0 1–7 0–0 6–2 3–0 ALBION SC Riverside… 2nd Rayados Academy San… 13th Sporting So-Cal Soc… 14th City SC Los Angeles… 5th EMPIRE SC 7th Total Futbol Academ… 11th AC Brea (2) 1st Laguna United 2 8th Fram Soccer Club 2 6th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

6 chains

Position over the season

6 game days

1st 7th 14th Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 11 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.12 · 2nd hardest of 14

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Nov 8
11:00 AM
Fram Soccer Club 2
6th · 2-1-1 · GD +0
Home
Galway Downs
●●○○○ Lean win
68%
3–1 2.19 2.20 Swing game
Sat Nov 21
11:00 AM
Los Angeles SC 2
4th · 2-1-1 · GD +8
Away
Fremont Park
●●●●○ Tough
37%
2–2 1.31 2.07 Upside
Sun Nov 22
11:15 AM
Laguna United 2
8th · 2-2-1 · GD +14
Away
La Paz Sports Park
●●●●○ Tough
32%
2–3 1.13 1.95 Upside
Sun Dec 13
12:00 AM
Reds FC 2
3rd · 2-2-0 · GD +12
Home
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
42%
2–2 1.45 1.90 Swing game
Sun Jan 10
09:00 AM
Rangers FC 2
9th · 2-2-1 · GD +3
Away
Serrano Elementary
●●●○○ Toss-up
44%
2–2 1.51 1.86 Swing game
Sun Jan 17
12:00 AM
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2)
10th · 1-0-2 · GD -12
Away
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
84%
5–1 2.60 1.93 Bank it
Sun Jan 24
12:00 AM
Total Futbol Academy - OC 2
11th · 1-0-3 · GD -7
Away
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
74%
4–1 2.35 1.96 Bank it
Sun Jan 31
12:00 AM
Rayados Academy San Diego
13th · 0-0-5 · GD -18
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
92%
5–1 2.80 2.03 Bank it
Sun Feb 7
12:00 AM
EMPIRE SC
7th · 2-1-1 · GD -1
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
68%
3–1 2.19 2.04 Swing game
Sun Feb 14
12:00 AM
AC Brea (2)
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +14
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
20%
1–2 0.78 1.95 Upside
Sun Feb 21
12:00 AM
City SC Los Angeles 2
5th · 2-1-1 · GD +2
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
63%
2–1 2.06 1.96 Swing game
Sun Feb 28
12:00 AM
Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club
14th · 0-0-5 · GD -22
Away
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
91%
4–1 2.78 2.01 Bank it
Sun Mar 14
09:00 AM
Fram Soccer Club 2
6th · 2-1-1 · GD +0
Away
Ridgecrest Intermediate · turf
●●●○○ Toss-up
58%
2–1 1.90 2.00 Swing game
Sun Mar 21
12:00 AM
Los Angeles SC 2
4th · 2-1-1 · GD +8
Home
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
48%
2–2 1.63 1.98 Swing game
Sun Apr 4
12:00 AM
Laguna United 2
8th · 2-2-1 · GD +14
Home
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
44%
2–2 1.49 1.96 Swing game
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM
FC Premier
12th · 0-0-2 · GD -6
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
83%
3–1 2.58 1.99 Bank it
Sun Apr 18
12:00 AM
Reds FC 2
3rd · 2-2-0 · GD +12
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
31%
2–2 1.12 1.95 Upside
Sun Apr 25
12:00 AM
Rangers FC 2
9th · 2-2-1 · GD +3
Home
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
56%
2–2 1.84 1.94 Swing game
Sun May 2
12:00 AM
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2)
10th · 1-0-2 · GD -12
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
91%
5–1 2.77 1.98 Bank it
Tue May 25
08:00 AM
AC Brea (2)
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +14
Home
SilverLakes
●●●●○ Tough
29%
1–2 1.06 1.94 Upside
Tue May 25
12:00 PM
FC Premier
12th · 0-0-2 · GD -6
Away
Dunrobin field (Behind - St John Bosco HS - Dunrobin (behind turf) · turf
●○○○○ Favorable
75%
3–1 2.38 1.96 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 AC Brea (2) 4400 162+14 123.00 WWWW +0.62 -0.32 100% 1.2
2 ALBION SC Riverside 2 5320 207+13 112.20 WWDDW -1.14 +0.12 61% 4.1
3 Reds FC 2 4220 175+12 82.00 WDDW -0.58 -0.06 78% 3.4
4 Los Angeles SC 2 4211 135+8 71.75 WDWL -0.18 -0.08 45% 4.7
5 City SC Los Angeles 2 4211 86+2 71.75 WLWD -0.35 +0.04 3% 7.6
6 Fram Soccer Club 2 4211 99+0 71.75 LDWW -0.31 +0.02 2% 8.0
7 EMPIRE SC 4211 89-1 71.75 WLDW +0.28 -0.07 2% 7.8
8 Laguna United 2 5221 2410+14 81.60 DDLWW -0.46 -0.11 73% 3.6
9 Rangers FC 2 5221 1411+3 81.60 DWDLW +1.33 -0.41 37% 5.0
10 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) 3102 719-12 31.00 LWL +0.43 +0.09 0% 11.6
11 Total Futbol Academy - OC 2 4103 916-7 30.75 LWLL -0.04 +0.09 0% 10.4
12 FC Premier 2002 06-6 00.00 LL +0.04 +0.07 0% 11.2
13 Rayados Academy San Diego 5005 624-18 00.00 LLLLL +0.39 +0.08 0% 12.9
14 Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club 5005 325-22 00.00 LLLLL +0.49 +0.13 0% 13.6

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.61 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.