TableChase Clubs

AC Brea (2)

Elite Academy League 2 · South U11 · 14 teams · AC Brea (all teams)

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1st
4-0-0 record · 4 played
3.00 points per game
+14 goal diff · 16–2
WWWWlast 4
100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.2
+0.62 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 01:00 PM

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AC Brea (2)
1st · 3.00 PPG
vs
City SC Los Angeles 2
5th · 1.75 PPG

Brea Sports Park, Brea Sports Park #5 ↗

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 3.0 for, 1.1 against · 2.39 expected points)

Season so farAC Brea (2)City SC Los Angeles 2
Position1st5th
Record (W-D-L)4-0-02-1-1
Points per game3.001.75
Goals for / game4.02.0
Goals against / game0.51.5
Clean sheets32
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)W W W WD W L W
Biggest win6–0 vs EMPIRE SC3–0 vs Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club
Worst loss—1–5 vs Rangers FC 2
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+2.10+0.14
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.62-0.35

Common opponents: Rangers FC 2 — we 2–0; they 1–5.

Game plan

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 75% chance; likely score 2–1.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the City SC Los Angeles 2 game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (AC Brea (2) – City SC Los Angeles 2) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 3.00 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Win
3.00 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Draw
2.60 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Loss
2.40 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–1 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

87% finish 1st
100% top 4
0% below the top 4
1.2 average finish
  1. 1st 87%
  2. 2nd 10%
  3. 3rd 3%
  4. 4th 1%
  5. 5th <1%
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

6 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link AC Brea (2) to City SC Los Angeles 2 through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

6 favour us
0 favour them
+5.2 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–0 5–1 3–2 7–1 0–3 5–0 4–2 4–4 6–0 3–0 0–3 1–1 1–1 AC Brea (2) 1st Rangers FC 2 9th Laguna United 2 8th Fram Soccer Club 2 6th EMPIRE SC 7th Sporting So-Cal Soc… 14th FC Premier 12th ALBION SC Riverside… 2nd City SC Los Angeles… 5th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

6 chains

Position over the season

6 game days

1st 7th 14th Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 11 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.32 · 13th hardest of 14

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
01:00 PM
City SC Los Angeles 2
5th · 2-1-1 · GD +2
Home
Brea Sports Park
●○○○○ Favorable
75%
2–1 2.39 2.88 Bank it
Sun Nov 8
12:00 AM
Reds FC 2
3rd · 2-2-0 · GD +12
Away
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
48%
2–1 1.64 2.67 Swing game
Sun Nov 15
01:00 PM
Rayados Academy San Diego
13th · 0-0-5 · GD -18
Away
LAUDERBACH PARK
●○○○○ Favorable
93%
4–1 2.83 2.69 Bank it
Sun Nov 22
12:00 PM
Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club
14th · 0-0-5 · GD -22
Home
Brea Sports Park
●○○○○ Favorable
97%
5–0 2.94 2.72 Bank it
Sun Dec 6
10:30 AM
Los Angeles SC 2
4th · 2-1-1 · GD +8
Away
Charter Oak High School · grass
●●●○○ Toss-up
53%
2–1 1.79 2.62 Swing game
Sun Dec 13
02:30 PM
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2)
10th · 1-0-2 · GD -12
Home
Brea Sports Park
●○○○○ Favorable
96%
6–1 2.90 2.65 Bank it
Sun Jan 17
12:00 AM
Total Futbol Academy - OC 2
11th · 1-0-3 · GD -7
Away
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
85%
4–1 2.65 2.65 Bank it
Sun Jan 24
12:00 AM
Fram Soccer Club 2
6th · 2-1-1 · GD +0
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
80%
3–1 2.51 2.64 Bank it
Sun Jan 31
12:00 AM
EMPIRE SC
7th · 2-1-1 · GD -1
Away
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
71%
3–1 2.29 2.61 Bank it
Sun Feb 7
12:00 AM
Laguna United 2
8th · 2-2-1 · GD +14
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
62%
3–1 2.01 2.57 Swing game
Sun Feb 14
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Riverside 2
2nd · 3-2-0 · GD +13
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
63%
2–1 2.05 2.53 Swing game
Sun Feb 21
09:00 AM
Rangers FC 2
9th · 2-2-1 · GD +3
Away
Serrano Elementary
●●○○○ Lean win
61%
2–1 2.00 2.50 Swing game
Sun Mar 7
12:00 AM
City SC Los Angeles 2
5th · 2-1-1 · GD +2
Away
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
67%
2–1 2.17 2.48 Swing game
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM
Reds FC 2
3rd · 2-2-0 · GD +12
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
58%
2–1 1.93 2.45 Swing game
Sat Mar 20
12:00 AM
Rayados Academy San Diego
13th · 0-0-5 · GD -18
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
96%
5–0 2.90 2.47 Bank it
Sun Apr 4
12:00 AM
Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club
14th · 0-0-5 · GD -22
Away
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
95%
5–0 2.89 2.49 Bank it
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM
Los Angeles SC 2
4th · 2-1-1 · GD +8
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
63%
2–1 2.07 2.47 Swing game
Sun Apr 18
12:00 AM
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2)
10th · 1-0-2 · GD -12
Away
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
92%
5–1 2.81 2.49 Bank it
Sun May 2
12:00 AM
Total Futbol Academy - OC 2
11th · 1-0-3 · GD -7
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
91%
4–1 2.79 2.50 Bank it
Tue May 25
08:00 AM
ALBION SC Riverside 2
2nd · 3-2-0 · GD +13
Away
SilverLakes
●●●○○ Toss-up
52%
2–1 1.76 2.47 Swing game
Tue May 25
12:00 PM
FC Premier
12th · 0-0-2 · GD -6
Away
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
84%
3–0 2.63 2.48 Bank it
Tue May 25
12:00 PM
FC Premier
12th · 0-0-2 · GD -6
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
90%
4–0 2.76 2.49 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 AC Brea (2) 4400 162+14 123.00 WWWW +0.62 -0.32 100% 1.2
2 ALBION SC Riverside 2 5320 207+13 112.20 WWDDW -1.14 +0.12 60% 4.1
3 Reds FC 2 4220 175+12 82.00 WDDW -0.58 -0.06 78% 3.3
4 Los Angeles SC 2 4211 135+8 71.75 WDWL -0.18 -0.08 45% 4.7
5 City SC Los Angeles 2 4211 86+2 71.75 WLWD -0.35 +0.04 3% 7.7
6 Fram Soccer Club 2 4211 99+0 71.75 LDWW -0.31 +0.02 2% 8.0
7 EMPIRE SC 4211 89-1 71.75 WLDW +0.28 -0.07 2% 7.7
8 Laguna United 2 5221 2410+14 81.60 DDLWW -0.46 -0.11 75% 3.5
9 Rangers FC 2 5221 1411+3 81.60 DWDLW +1.33 -0.41 36% 5.0
10 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) 3102 719-12 31.00 LWL +0.43 +0.09 0% 11.6
11 Total Futbol Academy - OC 2 4103 916-7 30.75 LWLL -0.04 +0.09 0% 10.5
12 FC Premier 2002 06-6 00.00 LL +0.04 +0.07 0% 11.2
13 Rayados Academy San Diego 5005 624-18 00.00 LLLLL +0.39 +0.08 0% 12.8
14 Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club 5005 325-22 00.00 LLLLL +0.49 +0.13 0% 13.7

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.61 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.