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Zeta Academy

Elite Academy League 2 · SD / OC / IE U13 · 13 teams · Zeta Academy (all teams)

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4th
4-1-1 record · 6 played
2.17 points per game
+16 goal diff · 21–5
WLWWDlast 5
91% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.6
-0.38 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:05 AM

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Zeta Academy
4th · 2.17 PPG
vs
Elite FC 2
5th · 2.00 PPG

Portola Springs Community Park, Portola Springs B ↗

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 3.0 for, 1.3 against · 2.28 expected points)

Season so farZeta AcademyElite FC 2
Position4th5th
Record (W-D-L)4-1-14-0-2
Points per game2.172.00
Goals for / game3.52.5
Goals against / game0.82.2
Clean sheets43
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)D W W L WL W W L W
Biggest win8–0 vs Rayados Academy San Diego5–1 vs Chula Vista FC 2
Worst loss1–4 at Crusaders SC1–9 at EMPIRE SC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.54+0.19
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.38-0.17

Common opponents: EMPIRE SC — we 3–0; they 1–9. Crusaders SC — we 1–4; they 2–3. Rayados Academy San Diego — we 8–0; they 3–0. Chula Vista FC 2 — we 7–0; they 5–1.

Game plan

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 71% chance; likely score 2–1.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Elite FC 2 game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Zeta Academy – Elite FC 2) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.29 PPG
4th— holds 4th— holds 4th— holds
Win
2.29 PPG
4th— holds 4th— holds 4th— holds
Draw
2.00 PPG
4th— holds 5th▼ down 1 5th▼ down 1
Loss
1.86 PPG
6th▼ down 2 6th▼ down 2 6th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 3rd if every rival drops points, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

2% finish 1st
91% top 4
9% below the top 4
3.6 average finish
  1. 1st 2%
  2. 2nd 10%
  3. 3rd 29%
  4. 4th 51%
  5. 5th 7%
  6. 6th 2%
  7. 7th 1%
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 18 remaining known games (max 2.79 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 AC Brea (2) 3.00 (+0.83) 3rd (2.22) 59 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 41 for their projection
2 Crusaders SC 2.75 (+0.58) 2nd (2.42) 53 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 45 for their projection
3 EMPIRE SC 2.40 (+0.23) 1st (2.49) 45 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 47 for their projection

How the results connect

21 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link Zeta Academy to Elite FC 2 through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

12 favour us
1 even
8 favour them
+2.0 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–4 3–2 7–0 1–5 8–0 0–3 3–0 9–1 1–0 1–3 1–2 0–1 0–13 3–1 1–1 1–0 1–2 3–0 0–3 0–6 Zeta Academy 4th Crusaders SC 2nd Chula Vista FC 2 10th Rayados Academy San… 9th EMPIRE SC 3rd Reds FC 2 12th ALBION SC San Diego… 11th Rangers FC 2 7th ALBION SC Santa Ana… 13th Elite FC 2 5th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

1st 7th 13th Sep 5 Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.04 · 9th hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
11:05 AM
Elite FC 2
5th · 4-0-2 · GD +2
Home
Portola Springs Community Park
●●○○○ Lean win
71%
2–1 2.28 2.18 Bank it
Sat Oct 31
11:05 AM
BOCA OC (2)
8th · 1-1-1 · GD +2
Home
Portola Springs Community Park
●●○○○ Lean win
65%
2–1 2.14 2.18 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
11:00 AM
Rangers FC 2
7th · 3-1-2 · GD +3
Away
Fullerton College · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up
53%
1–1 1.83 2.14 Swing game
Sat Nov 14
11:05 AM
ALBION SC Santa Ana 2
13th · 0-0-6 · GD -18
Home
Portola Springs Community Park
●○○○○ Favorable
92%
3–0 2.83 2.21 Bank it
Sun Nov 15
12:45 PM
Chula Vista FC 2
10th · 2-0-5 · GD -28
Away
Castle Park High School
●○○○○ Favorable
94%
5–0 2.86 2.27 Bank it
Sat Mar 6
12:00 AM
Reds FC 2
12th · 0-1-5 · GD -11
Away
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
78%
2–0 2.47 2.28 Bank it
Sun Mar 7
01:10 PM
AC Brea (2)
1st · 2-0-0 · GD +13
Away
Grass - Whittier College · grass
●●●●○ Tough
35%
2–2 1.23 2.20 Upside
Sat Mar 13
12:00 PM
Crusaders SC
2nd · 7-1-0 · GD +25
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
39%
2–2 1.37 2.14 Upside
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM
Rayados Academy San Diego
9th · 2-1-4 · GD -18
Away
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
89%
4–0 2.75 2.18 Bank it
Sat Mar 20
12:00 AM
AC Brea (2)
1st · 2-0-0 · GD +13
Home
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
45%
2–2 1.55 2.14 Swing game
Sun Mar 21
12:00 AM
EMPIRE SC
3rd · 4-0-1 · GD +28
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
21%
1–3 0.78 2.06 Upside
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM
ALBION SC San Diego (1)
11th · 1-2-4 · GD -16
Away
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
84%
3–0 2.62 2.10 Bank it
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2)
6th · 2-0-1 · GD +2
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
75%
3–1 2.38 2.11 Bank it
Sat Apr 17
09:00 AM
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2)
6th · 2-0-1 · GD +2
Away
RJRSP
●●○○○ Lean win
65%
3–1 2.12 2.11 Swing game
Sun Apr 18
12:00 AM
Elite FC 2
5th · 4-0-2 · GD +2
Away
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
61%
2–1 2.02 2.11 Swing game
Sun Apr 25
05:15 PM
BOCA OC (2)
8th · 1-1-1 · GD +2
Away
El Rancho Charter School (Track Field)
●●●○○ Toss-up
56%
2–1 1.88 2.10 Swing game
Sat May 1
12:00 AM
Rangers FC 2
7th · 3-1-2 · GD +3
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
62%
2–1 2.07 2.09 Swing game
Sun May 2
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Santa Ana 2
13th · 0-0-6 · GD -18
Away
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
89%
3–0 2.74 2.12 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 AC Brea (2) 2200 141+13 63.00 WW -1.91 +0.07 95% 3.0
2 Crusaders SC 8710 338+25 222.75 WWWWW -0.23 -0.04 100% 2.0
3 EMPIRE SC 5401 324+28 122.40 LWWWW -0.73 -0.05 100% 1.6
4 Zeta Academy 6411 215+16 132.17 WLWWD -0.38 +0.04 91% 3.6
5 Elite FC 2 6402 1513+2 122.00 WLWWL -0.17 +0.14 5% 6.2
6 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) 3201 119+2 62.00 WWL -0.50 +0.15 3% 6.7
7 Rangers FC 2 6312 96+3 101.67 WWDLW -0.27 +0.17 3% 6.5
8 BOCA OC (2) 3111 64+2 41.33 DLW +0.14 +0.03 4% 6.4
9 Rayados Academy San Diego 7214 725-18 71.00 LDLLL -0.26 +0.46 0% 10.5
10 Chula Vista FC 2 7205 735-28 60.86 LLWLW -0.04 +0.45 0% 11.6
11 ALBION SC San Diego (1) 7124 420-16 50.71 LLDDL +0.30 +0.20 0% 10.5
12 Reds FC 2 6015 415-11 10.17 LLDLL +0.98 -0.11 0% 9.9
13 ALBION SC Santa Ana 2 6006 018-18 00.00 LLLLL +0.07 +0.31 0% 12.5

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.27 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.