TableChase Clubs

EMPIRE SC

Elite Academy League 2 · SD / OC / IE U13 · 13 teams · EMPIRE SC (all teams)

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3rd
4-0-1 record · 5 played
2.40 points per game
+28 goal diff · 32–4
LWWWWlast 5
100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.6
-0.73 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 10:00 AM

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EMPIRE SC
3rd · 2.40 PPG
vs
BOCA OC (2)
8th · 1.33 PPG

Eastvale Community Park, Full Size Field 13 ↗

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 4–1 (expected goals 4.1 for, 1.4 against · 2.60 expected points)

Season so farEMPIRE SCBOCA OC (2)
Position3rd8th
Record (W-D-L)4-0-11-1-1
Points per game2.401.33
Goals for / game6.42.0
Goals against / game0.81.3
Clean sheets31
Held scoreless11
Form (recent first)W W W W LW L D
Biggest win13–0 at Chula Vista FC 23–0 at ALBION SC Santa Ana 2
Worst loss0–3 at Zeta Academy0–1 at Rangers FC 2
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+3.23+0.38
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.73+0.14

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–3 at Zeta Academy.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 84% chance; likely score 4–1.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the BOCA OC (2) game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (EMPIRE SC – BOCA OC (2)) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.50 PPG
3rd— holds 3rd— holds 3rd— holds
Win
2.50 PPG
3rd— holds 3rd— holds 3rd— holds
Draw
2.17 PPG
3rd— holds 5th▼ down 2 5th▼ down 2
Loss
2.00 PPG
4th▼ down 1 5th▼ down 2 6th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 4–1 win we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 3rd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

58% finish 1st
100% top 4
0% below the top 4
1.6 average finish
  1. 1st 58%
  2. 2nd 27%
  3. 3rd 11%
  4. 4th 3%
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 19 remaining known games (max 2.88 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 AC Brea (2) 3.00 (+0.60) 3rd (2.22) 60 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 42 for their projection
2 Crusaders SC 2.75 (+0.35) 2nd (2.42) 54 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 46 for their projection

How the results connect

9 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link EMPIRE SC to BOCA OC (2) through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

7 favour us
2 favour them
+4.3 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
4–0 1–5 1–0 0–8 3–3 6–0 1–3 1–2 0–3 1–4 9–1 2–3 3–0 0–3 1–0 13–0 3–0 EMPIRE SC 3rd ALBION SC San Diego… 11th Reds FC 2 12th Zeta Academy 4th Elite FC 2 5th Chula Vista FC 2 10th Rangers FC 2 7th Crusaders SC 2nd ALBION SC Santa Ana… 13th BOCA OC (2) 8th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

9 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

1st 7th 13th Sep 5 Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.05 · 12th hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
10:00 AM
BOCA OC (2)
8th · 1-1-1 · GD +2
Home
Eastvale Community Park
●○○○○ Favorable
84%
4–1 2.60 2.43 Bank it
Sun Nov 1
11:00 AM
Rangers FC 2
7th · 3-1-2 · GD +3
Away
Fullerton College · turf?
●●○○○ Lean win
72%
2–1 2.32 2.42 Bank it
Sat Nov 7
11:05 AM
Crusaders SC
2nd · 7-1-0 · GD +25
Away
Pershing Middle School
●●●○○ Toss-up
47%
2–2 1.59 2.31 Swing game
Sun Nov 8
09:00 AM
Rayados Academy San Diego
9th · 2-1-4 · GD -18
Away
MEADOW PARK
●○○○○ Favorable
97%
6–0 2.94 2.38 Bank it
Sun Nov 15
02:00 PM
AC Brea (2)
1st · 2-0-0 · GD +13
Home
Eastvale Community Park
●●○○○ Lean win
67%
3–2 2.14 2.36 Swing game
Sun Nov 22
11:05 AM
AC Brea (2)
1st · 2-0-0 · GD +13
Away
Grass - Whittier College · grass
●●●○○ Toss-up
55%
3–2 1.80 2.31 Swing game
Sun Mar 7
12:00 AM
Reds FC 2
12th · 0-1-5 · GD -11
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
95%
5–0 2.89 2.36 Bank it
Sat Mar 13
08:00 AM
ALBION SC Santa Ana 2
13th · 0-0-6 · GD -18
Away
Saint Jeanne De Lestonnac School
●○○○○ Favorable
97%
5–0 2.93 2.40 Bank it
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM
Chula Vista FC 2
10th · 2-0-5 · GD -28
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
100%
9–0 2.99 2.44 Bank it
Sat Mar 20
12:00 AM
Elite FC 2
5th · 4-0-2 · GD +2
Away
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
81%
4–1 2.53 2.45 Bank it
Sun Mar 21
12:00 AM
Zeta Academy
4th · 4-1-1 · GD +16
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
63%
3–1 2.06 2.42 Swing game
Sun Apr 4
12:00 AM
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2)
6th · 2-0-1 · GD +2
Away
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
85%
5–1 2.62 2.44 Bank it
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Santa Ana 2
13th · 0-0-6 · GD -18
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
98%
5–0 2.97 2.46 Bank it
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM
ALBION SC San Diego (1)
11th · 1-2-4 · GD -16
Away
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
95%
4–0 2.89 2.49 Bank it
Sun Apr 18
05:15 PM
BOCA OC (2)
8th · 1-1-1 · GD +2
Away
El Rancho Charter School (Track Field)
●○○○○ Favorable
76%
3–1 2.40 2.48 Bank it
Sun Apr 25
12:00 AM
Rangers FC 2
7th · 3-1-2 · GD +3
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
80%
3–1 2.53 2.48 Bank it
Sat May 1
12:00 AM
Crusaders SC
2nd · 7-1-0 · GD +25
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
59%
3–2 1.92 2.46 Swing game
Sun May 2
12:00 AM
Rayados Academy San Diego
9th · 2-1-4 · GD -18
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
99%
7–0 2.97 2.48 Bank it
Tue May 25
12:00 AM
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2)
6th · 2-0-1 · GD +2
Home
Eastvale Community Park
●○○○○ Favorable
91%
5–1 2.78 2.49 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 AC Brea (2) 2200 141+13 63.00 WW -1.91 +0.07 95% 3.0
2 Crusaders SC 8710 338+25 222.75 WWWWW -0.23 -0.04 100% 2.0
3 EMPIRE SC 5401 324+28 122.40 LWWWW -0.73 -0.05 100% 1.6
4 Zeta Academy 6411 215+16 132.17 WLWWD -0.38 +0.04 91% 3.6
5 Elite FC 2 6402 1513+2 122.00 WLWWL -0.17 +0.14 5% 6.2
6 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) 3201 119+2 62.00 WWL -0.50 +0.15 3% 6.7
7 Rangers FC 2 6312 96+3 101.67 WWDLW -0.27 +0.17 2% 6.6
8 BOCA OC (2) 3111 64+2 41.33 DLW +0.14 +0.03 4% 6.3
9 Rayados Academy San Diego 7214 725-18 71.00 LDLLL -0.26 +0.46 0% 10.5
10 Chula Vista FC 2 7205 735-28 60.86 LLWLW -0.04 +0.45 0% 11.6
11 ALBION SC San Diego (1) 7124 420-16 50.71 LLDDL +0.30 +0.20 0% 10.5
12 Reds FC 2 6015 415-11 10.17 LLDLL +0.98 -0.11 0% 9.9
13 ALBION SC Santa Ana 2 6006 018-18 00.00 LLLLL +0.07 +0.31 0% 12.5

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.27 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.