TableChase Clubs

BOCA OC (2)

Elite Academy League 2 · SD / OC / IE U13 · 13 teams · BOCA OC (all teams)

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8th
1-1-1 record · 3 played
1.33 points per game
+2 goal diff · 6–4
DLWlast 3
4% chance of top 4 · expected finish 6.4
+0.14 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 10:00 AM

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BOCA OC (2)
8th · 1.33 PPG
at
EMPIRE SC
3rd · 2.40 PPG

Eastvale Community Park, Full Size Field 13 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–4 (expected goals 1.4 for, 4.1 against · 0.31 expected points)

Season so farBOCA OC (2)EMPIRE SC
Position8th3rd
Record (W-D-L)1-1-14-0-1
Points per game1.332.40
Goals for / game2.06.4
Goals against / game1.30.8
Clean sheets13
Held scoreless11
Form (recent first)W L DW W W W L
Biggest win3–0 at ALBION SC Santa Ana 213–0 at Chula Vista FC 2
Worst loss0–1 at Rangers FC 20–3 at Zeta Academy
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.38+3.23
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.14-0.73

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    EMPIRE SC score 6.4/game — well above the league's 2.3.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Hard to break down
    EMPIRE SC concede only 0.8/game with 3 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–1 at Rangers FC 2.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 7%; a draw (9%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • They arrive in form
    EMPIRE SC have won 4 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 10:00 AM at Eastvale Community Park.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    Rangers FC 2 sit 7th on 1.67 PPG; we are on 1.33.

    A point moves us above Rangers FC 2 on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the EMPIRE SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (BOCA OC (2) – EMPIRE SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 1.00 PPG
8th— holds 8th— holds 10th▼ down 2
Win
1.75 PPG
7th▲ up 1 6th▲ up 2 8th— holds
Draw
1.25 PPG
8th— holds 8th— holds 8th— holds
Loss
1.00 PPG
8th— holds 8th— holds 10th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–4 loss we stay 8th even if every rival loses, and as low as 10th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
4% top 4
96% below the top 4
6.4 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd <1%
  4. 4th 3%
  5. 5th 25%
  6. 6th 27%
  7. 7th 22%
  8. 8th 23%
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 21 remaining known games (max 2.79 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 AC Brea (2) 3.00 (+1.67) 3rd (2.22) 68 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 50 for their projection
2 Crusaders SC 2.75 (+1.42) 2nd (2.42) 62 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 54 for their projection
3 EMPIRE SC 2.40 (+1.07) 1st (2.49) 54 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 56 for their projection
4 Zeta Academy 2.17 (+0.84) 4th (2.12) 49 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 47 for their projection
5 Elite FC 2 2.00 (+0.67) 5th (1.61) 44 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection
6 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) 2.00 (+0.67) 8th (1.52) 44 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection
7 Rangers FC 2 1.67 (+0.34) 7th (1.55) A point next game

How the results connect

9 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link BOCA OC (2) to EMPIRE SC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

2 favour us
7 favour them
-4.3 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–1 5–1 0–4 3–3 8–0 3–1 0–6 2–1 4–1 3–0 3–2 1–9 3–0 0–3 0–1 0–3 0–13 BOCA OC (2) 8th Rangers FC 2 7th Crusaders SC 2nd ALBION SC Santa Ana… 13th ALBION SC San Diego… 11th Reds FC 2 12th Zeta Academy 4th Elite FC 2 5th Chula Vista FC 2 10th EMPIRE SC 3rd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

9 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

1st 7th 13th Sep 5 Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.03 · 10th hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
10:00 AM
EMPIRE SC
3rd · 4-0-1 · GD +28
Away
Eastvale Community Park
●●●●● Very tough
7%
1–4 0.31 1.08 Upside
Sat Oct 31
11:05 AM
Zeta Academy
4th · 4-1-1 · GD +16
Away
Portola Springs Community Park
●●●●● Very tough
17%
1–2 0.69 1.00 Upside
Sat Nov 7
05:15 PM
Elite FC 2
5th · 4-0-2 · GD +2
Home
El Rancho Charter School (Track Field)
●●●○○ Toss-up
49%
2–1 1.67 1.11 Swing game
Sun Nov 8
09:00 AM
ALBION SC San Diego (1)
11th · 1-2-4 · GD -16
Away
Madison High School · turf?
●●○○○ Lean win
69%
2–0 2.23 1.27 Swing game
Sun Nov 15
12:30 PM
Rayados Academy San Diego
9th · 2-1-4 · GD -18
Away
SONIA SOTOMAYOR ELEMENTARY SCHOOL
●●○○○ Lean win
75%
3–1 2.38 1.41 Bank it
Sat Mar 6
12:00 AM
Crusaders SC
2nd · 7-1-0 · GD +25
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
13%
1–3 0.52 1.31 Upside
Sun Mar 7
05:15 PM
Rangers FC 2
7th · 3-1-2 · GD +3
Home
El Rancho Charter School (Track Field)
●●●○○ Toss-up
43%
1–1 1.53 1.33 Swing game
Sun Mar 14
05:15 PM
ALBION SC Santa Ana 2
13th · 0-0-6 · GD -18
Home
El Rancho Charter School (Upper)
●○○○○ Favorable
83%
2–0 2.60 1.45 Bank it
Sat Mar 20
12:00 AM
Chula Vista FC 2
10th · 2-0-5 · GD -28
Away
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
83%
3–1 2.59 1.54 Bank it
Sun Mar 21
12:00 AM
AC Brea (2)
1st · 2-0-0 · GD +13
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
15%
1–3 0.60 1.47 Upside
Sat Apr 3
05:15 PM
Rayados Academy San Diego
9th · 2-1-4 · GD -18
Home
El Rancho Charter School (Track Field)
●○○○○ Favorable
83%
3–1 2.58 1.55 Bank it
Sun Apr 4
12:00 AM
Reds FC 2
12th · 0-1-5 · GD -11
Away
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
60%
2–1 2.01 1.58 Swing game
Sat Apr 10
05:15 PM
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2)
6th · 2-0-1 · GD +2
Home
El Rancho Charter School (Track Field)
●●●○○ Toss-up
52%
2–2 1.74 1.59 Swing game
Sun Apr 18
05:15 PM
EMPIRE SC
3rd · 4-0-1 · GD +28
Home
El Rancho Charter School (Track Field)
●●●●● Very tough
12%
1–3 0.48 1.53 Upside
Sat Apr 24
09:00 AM
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2)
6th · 2-0-1 · GD +2
Away
RJRSP
●●●●○ Tough
41%
2–2 1.41 1.52 Upside
Sun Apr 25
05:15 PM
Zeta Academy
4th · 4-1-1 · GD +16
Home
El Rancho Charter School (Track Field)
●●●●● Very tough
24%
1–2 0.92 1.49 Upside
Sat May 1
09:00 AM
Chula Vista FC 2
10th · 2-0-5 · GD -28
Home
El Rancho Charter School (Track Field)
●○○○○ Favorable
89%
4–1 2.75 1.55 Bank it
Sat May 1
12:00 AM
Elite FC 2
5th · 4-0-2 · GD +2
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
39%
2–2 1.37 1.54 Upside
Sun May 2
05:15 PM
ALBION SC San Diego (1)
11th · 1-2-4 · GD -16
Home
El Rancho Charter School (Track Field)
●○○○○ Favorable
76%
2–0 2.43 1.58 Bank it
Tue May 25
12:00 AM
Reds FC 2
12th · 0-1-5 · GD -11
Home
El Rancho Charter School (Track Field)
●●○○○ Lean win
69%
2–1 2.24 1.61 Swing game
Tue May 25
12:00 AM
AC Brea (2)
1st · 2-0-0 · GD +13
Home
El Rancho Charter School (Track Field)
●●●●● Very tough
23%
1–2 0.85 1.58 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 AC Brea (2) 2200 141+13 63.00 WW -1.91 +0.07 96% 3.0
2 Crusaders SC 8710 338+25 222.75 WWWWW -0.23 -0.04 100% 2.0
3 EMPIRE SC 5401 324+28 122.40 LWWWW -0.73 -0.05 100% 1.6
4 Zeta Academy 6411 215+16 132.17 WLWWD -0.38 +0.04 91% 3.6
5 Elite FC 2 6402 1513+2 122.00 WLWWL -0.17 +0.14 5% 6.2
6 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) 3201 119+2 62.00 WWL -0.50 +0.15 3% 6.7
7 Rangers FC 2 6312 96+3 101.67 WWDLW -0.27 +0.17 2% 6.6
8 BOCA OC (2) 3111 64+2 41.33 DLW +0.14 +0.03 4% 6.4
9 Rayados Academy San Diego 7214 725-18 71.00 LDLLL -0.26 +0.46 0% 10.5
10 Chula Vista FC 2 7205 735-28 60.86 LLWLW -0.04 +0.45 0% 11.6
11 ALBION SC San Diego (1) 7124 420-16 50.71 LLDDL +0.30 +0.20 0% 10.5
12 Reds FC 2 6015 415-11 10.17 LLDLL +0.98 -0.11 0% 9.8
13 ALBION SC Santa Ana 2 6006 018-18 00.00 LLLLL +0.07 +0.31 0% 12.5

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.27 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.