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Reds FC 2

Elite Academy League 2 · SD / OC / IE U13 · 13 teams · SoCal Reds FC (all teams)

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12th
0-1-5 record · 6 played
0.17 points per game
-11 goal diff · 4–15
LLDLLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 9.9
+0.98 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 09:00 AM

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Reds FC 2
12th · 0.17 PPG
at

MEADOW PARK, FIELD 1 ↗

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.8 for, 1.5 against · 1.58 expected points)

Season so farReds FC 2Rayados Academy San Diego
Position12th9th
Record (W-D-L)0-1-52-1-4
Points per game0.171.00
Goals for / game0.71.0
Goals against / game2.53.6
Clean sheets12
Held scoreless33
Form (recent first)L L D L LL L L D L
Biggest win—3–0 vs ALBION SC Santa Ana 2
Worst loss0–6 vs EMPIRE SC1–11 at AC Brea (2)
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.99-1.96
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.98-0.26

Common opponents: Zeta Academy — we 0–1; they 0–8. ALBION SC San Diego (1) — we 0–0; they 2–1. Rangers FC 2 — we 1–2; they 0–0.

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    Rayados Academy San Diego average 1.0 goals/game (league avg 2.3); blanked in 3 of 7.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    Rayados Academy San Diego concede 3.6/game; worst result 1–11 at AC Brea (2).

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–1 at Zeta Academy, 0–6 vs EMPIRE SC, 0–0 vs ALBION SC San Diego (1).

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 45% / draw 23% / loss 32%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Confidence is low on their side
    Rayados Academy San Diego have lost 3 straight (form: LDLLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 09:00 AM at MEADOW PARK.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Rayados Academy San Diego game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Reds FC 2 – Rayados Academy San Diego) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 0.29 PPG
12th— holds 12th— holds 12th— holds
Win
0.57 PPG
12th— holds 12th— holds 12th— holds
Draw
0.29 PPG
12th— holds 12th— holds 12th— holds
Loss
0.14 PPG
12th— holds 12th— holds 12th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 12th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
9.9 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th <1%
  8. 8th 1%
  9. 9th 48%
  10. 10th 25%
  11. 11th 16%
  12. 12th 8%
  13. 13th 2%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 18 remaining known games (max 2.29 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 AC Brea (2) 3.00 (+2.83) 3rd (2.22) 71 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 53 for their projection
2 Crusaders SC 2.75 (+2.58) 2nd (2.42) 65 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 57 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 EMPIRE SC 2.40 (+2.23) 1st (2.49) 57 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 59 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 Zeta Academy 2.17 (+2.00) 4th (2.12) 52 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 50 for their projection
5 Elite FC 2 2.00 (+1.83) 5th (1.61) 47 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection
6 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) 2.00 (+1.83) 8th (1.52) 47 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection
7 Rangers FC 2 1.67 (+1.50) 7th (1.55) 40 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection
8 BOCA OC (2) 1.33 (+1.16) 6th (1.58) 31 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection
9 Rayados Academy San Diego 1.00 (+0.83) 11th (0.70) 23 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection
10 Chula Vista FC 2 0.86 (+0.69) 12th (0.56) 20 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection
11 ALBION SC San Diego (1) 0.71 (+0.54) 10th (0.70) 17 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection

How the results connect

20 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link Reds FC 2 to Rayados Academy San Diego through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

12 favour us
1 even
7 favour them
+2.5 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–2 0–0 0–0 1–2 0–1 8–0 1–3 3–1 0–1 3–0 0–6 0–3 5–1 3–0 0–3 3–2 1–0 2–1 1–1 4–0 Reds FC 2 12th Rangers FC 2 7th ALBION SC San Diego… 11th Zeta Academy 4th Crusaders SC 2nd EMPIRE SC 3rd Elite FC 2 5th ALBION SC Santa Ana… 13th Chula Vista FC 2 10th Rayados Academy San… 9th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

1st 7th 13th Sep 5 Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.11 · 13th hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
09:00 AM
Rayados Academy San Diego
9th · 2-1-4 · GD -18
Away
MEADOW PARK
●●●○○ Toss-up
45%
1–1 1.58 0.37 Swing game
Sun Nov 1
12:45 PM
Chula Vista FC 2
10th · 2-0-5 · GD -28
Away
Hoover High School · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up
54%
2–1 1.83 0.55 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
07:10 PM
AC Brea (2)
1st · 2-0-0 · GD +13
Away
Grass - Whittier College · grass
●●●●● Very tough
4%
0–4 0.18 0.51 Upside
Sun Nov 8
09:00 AM
Elite FC 2
5th · 4-0-2 · GD +2
Home
Orange County Great Park
●●●●● Very tough
22%
1–2 0.86 0.54 Upside
Sun Nov 15
09:00 AM
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2)
6th · 2-0-1 · GD +2
Home
Portola Springs Park
●●●●● Very tough
22%
1–2 0.84 0.57 Upside
Sat Mar 6
12:00 AM
Zeta Academy
4th · 4-1-1 · GD +16
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
9%
0–2 0.39 0.56 Upside
Sun Mar 7
12:00 AM
EMPIRE SC
3rd · 4-0-1 · GD +28
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
1%
0–5 0.08 0.52 Upside
Sat Mar 20
12:00 AM
ALBION SC San Diego (1)
11th · 1-2-4 · GD -16
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
41%
1–1 1.49 0.59 Upside
Sun Mar 21
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Santa Ana 2
13th · 0-0-6 · GD -18
Away
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
51%
1–0 1.80 0.67 Swing game
Sun Apr 4
12:00 AM
BOCA OC (2)
8th · 1-1-1 · GD +2
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
20%
1–2 0.79 0.68 Upside
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM
Crusaders SC
2nd · 7-1-0 · GD +25
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
3%
0–3 0.17 0.65 Upside
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM
Rangers FC 2
7th · 3-1-2 · GD +3
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
15%
0–1 0.67 0.65 Upside
Sun Apr 18
12:00 AM
Rayados Academy San Diego
9th · 2-1-4 · GD -18
Home
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
54%
2–1 1.84 0.71 Swing game
Sun Apr 25
12:00 AM
Chula Vista FC 2
10th · 2-0-5 · GD -28
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
64%
2–1 2.09 0.78 Swing game
Sat May 1
12:00 AM
AC Brea (2)
1st · 2-0-0 · GD +13
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
7%
1–3 0.30 0.76 Upside
Sun May 2
12:00 AM
Elite FC 2
5th · 4-0-2 · GD +2
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
15%
1–2 0.64 0.75 Upside
Tue May 25
12:00 AM
BOCA OC (2)
8th · 1-1-1 · GD +2
Away
El Rancho Charter School (Track Field)
●●●●● Very tough
14%
1–2 0.59 0.74 Upside
Tue May 25
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Santa Ana 2
13th · 0-0-6 · GD -18
Home
Portola Springs Park
●●○○○ Lean win
59%
1–0 2.00 0.80 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 AC Brea (2) 2200 141+13 63.00 WW -1.91 +0.07 95% 3.0
2 Crusaders SC 8710 338+25 222.75 WWWWW -0.23 -0.04 100% 2.0
3 EMPIRE SC 5401 324+28 122.40 LWWWW -0.73 -0.05 100% 1.6
4 Zeta Academy 6411 215+16 132.17 WLWWD -0.38 +0.04 91% 3.6
5 Elite FC 2 6402 1513+2 122.00 WLWWL -0.17 +0.14 5% 6.2
6 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) 3201 119+2 62.00 WWL -0.50 +0.15 3% 6.7
7 Rangers FC 2 6312 96+3 101.67 WWDLW -0.27 +0.17 3% 6.5
8 BOCA OC (2) 3111 64+2 41.33 DLW +0.14 +0.03 4% 6.4
9 Rayados Academy San Diego 7214 725-18 71.00 LDLLL -0.26 +0.46 0% 10.5
10 Chula Vista FC 2 7205 735-28 60.86 LLWLW -0.04 +0.45 0% 11.6
11 ALBION SC San Diego (1) 7124 420-16 50.71 LLDDL +0.30 +0.20 0% 10.5
12 Reds FC 2 6015 415-11 10.17 LLDLL +0.98 -0.11 0% 9.9
13 ALBION SC Santa Ana 2 6006 018-18 00.00 LLLLL +0.07 +0.31 0% 12.5

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.27 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.