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Chula Vista FC 2

Elite Academy League 2 · SD / OC / IE U13 · 13 teams · Chula Vista FC (all teams)

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10th
2-0-5 record · 7 played
0.86 points per game
-28 goal diff · 7–35
LLWLWlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 11.6
-0.04 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 01:00 PM

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Chula Vista FC 2
10th · 0.86 PPG
vs
Crusaders SC
2nd · 2.75 PPG

Hoover High School, Stadium ↗ · turf?

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 0–6 (expected goals 1.0 for, 6.3 against · 0.05 expected points)

Season so farChula Vista FC 2Crusaders SC
Position10th2nd
Record (W-D-L)2-0-57-1-0
Points per game0.862.75
Goals for / game1.04.1
Goals against / game5.01.0
Clean sheets13
Held scoreless30
Form (recent first)W L W L LW W W W W
Biggest win3–0 vs ALBION SC Santa Ana 28–0 vs ALBION SC San Diego (1)
Worst loss0–13 vs EMPIRE SC—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-2.76+2.17
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.04-0.23

Common opponents: ALBION SC San Diego (1) — we 0–1; they 8–0. FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) — we 1–8; they 6–0. Zeta Academy — we 0–7; they 4–1. ALBION SC Santa Ana 2 — we 3–0; they 3–0. Elite FC 2 — we 1–5; they 3–2.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Crusaders SC score 4.1/game — well above the league's 2.3.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Hard to break down
    Crusaders SC concede only 1.0/game with 3 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–1 at ALBION SC San Diego (1), 0–13 vs EMPIRE SC, 0–7 at Zeta Academy.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 1%; a draw (2%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • They arrive in form
    Crusaders SC have won 6 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

  • What a win does
    Rayados Academy San Diego sit 9th on 1.00 PPG; we are on 0.86.

    A point moves us above Rayados Academy San Diego on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Crusaders SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Chula Vista FC 2 – Crusaders SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.75 PPG
10th— holds 10th— holds 11th▼ down 1
Win
1.13 PPG
9th▲ up 1 8th▲ up 2 10th— holds
Draw
0.88 PPG
10th— holds 10th— holds 11th▼ down 1
Loss
0.75 PPG
10th— holds 10th— holds 11th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–6 loss we stay 10th even if every rival loses, and as low as 11th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
11.6 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th 5%
  10. 10th 11%
  11. 11th 22%
  12. 12th 42%
  13. 13th 20%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 17 remaining known games (max 2.38 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 AC Brea (2) 3.00 (+2.14) 3rd (2.22) 66 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 48 for their projection
2 Crusaders SC 2.75 (+1.89) 2nd (2.42) 60 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 52 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 EMPIRE SC 2.40 (+1.54) 1st (2.49) 52 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 54 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 Zeta Academy 2.17 (+1.31) 4th (2.12) 47 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 45 for their projection
5 Elite FC 2 2.00 (+1.14) 5th (1.61) 42 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection
6 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) 2.00 (+1.14) 8th (1.52) 42 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection
7 Rangers FC 2 1.67 (+0.81) 7th (1.55) 35 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection
8 BOCA OC (2) 1.33 (+0.47) 6th (1.58) 26 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection
9 Rayados Academy San Diego 1.00 (+0.14) 11th (0.70) A point next game

How the results connect

24 chains · 11 teams

Paths of results that link Chula Vista FC 2 to Crusaders SC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us
2 even
21 favour them
-6.8 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–0 0–3 1–5 2–3 0–1 0–8 0–7 1–4 1–8 0–6 0–3 3–3 2–1 3–0 0–0 1–3 0–3 0–3 0–0 1–3 Chula Vista FC 2 10th ALBION SC Santa Ana… 13th Elite FC 2 5th ALBION SC San Diego… 11th Zeta Academy 4th FLYTE SC- Inland Em… 6th Rayados Academy San… 9th BOCA OC (2) 8th Rangers FC 2 7th Reds FC 2 12th Crusaders SC 2nd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

1st 7th 13th Sep 5 Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.45 · 2nd hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
01:00 PM
Crusaders SC
2nd · 7-1-0 · GD +25
Home
Hoover High School · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
1%
0–6 0.05 0.76 Upside
Sun Nov 1
12:45 PM
Reds FC 2
12th · 0-1-5 · GD -11
Home
Hoover High School · turf?
●●●●○ Tough
26%
1–2 0.97 0.78 Upside
Sun Nov 8
01:10 PM
AC Brea (2)
1st · 2-0-0 · GD +13
Away
Grass - Whittier College · grass
●●●●● Very tough
0%
1–7 0.03 0.70 Upside
Sun Nov 15
12:45 PM
Zeta Academy
4th · 4-1-1 · GD +16
Home
Castle Park High School
●●●●● Very tough
2%
0–5 0.10 0.65 Upside
Sat Mar 6
12:00 AM
ALBION SC San Diego (1)
11th · 1-2-4 · GD -16
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
34%
1–1 1.25 0.70 Upside
Sun Mar 7
12:00 AM
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2)
6th · 2-0-1 · GD +2
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
7%
1–4 0.30 0.67 Upside
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM
EMPIRE SC
3rd · 4-0-1 · GD +28
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
0%
0–9 0.01 0.62 Upside
Sat Mar 20
12:00 AM
BOCA OC (2)
8th · 1-1-1 · GD +2
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
7%
1–3 0.31 0.60 Upside
Sun Mar 21
12:00 AM
Rangers FC 2
7th · 3-1-2 · GD +3
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
6%
0–3 0.26 0.58 Upside
Sun Apr 4
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Santa Ana 2
13th · 0-0-6 · GD -18
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
38%
1–1 1.39 0.63 Upside
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM
Elite FC 2
5th · 4-0-2 · GD +2
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
8%
1–4 0.34 0.61 Upside
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM
Rayados Academy San Diego
9th · 2-1-4 · GD -18
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
27%
1–2 1.00 0.63 Upside
Sun Apr 18
12:00 AM
Crusaders SC
2nd · 7-1-0 · GD +25
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
0%
0–7 0.02 0.60 Upside
Sun Apr 25
12:00 AM
Reds FC 2
12th · 0-1-5 · GD -11
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
18%
1–2 0.73 0.61 Upside
Sat May 1
09:00 AM
BOCA OC (2)
8th · 1-1-1 · GD +2
Away
El Rancho Charter School (Track Field)
●●●●● Very tough
4%
1–4 0.19 0.59 Upside
Sun May 2
12:00 AM
AC Brea (2)
1st · 2-0-0 · GD +13
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
1%
1–6 0.05 0.57 Upside
Tue May 25
12:00 AM
Rangers FC 2
7th · 3-1-2 · GD +3
Home
Castle Park High School
●●●●● Very tough
9%
0–3 0.39 0.56 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 AC Brea (2) 2200 141+13 63.00 WW -1.91 +0.07 96% 3.0
2 Crusaders SC 8710 338+25 222.75 WWWWW -0.23 -0.04 100% 2.0
3 EMPIRE SC 5401 324+28 122.40 LWWWW -0.73 -0.05 100% 1.6
4 Zeta Academy 6411 215+16 132.17 WLWWD -0.38 +0.04 91% 3.6
5 Elite FC 2 6402 1513+2 122.00 WLWWL -0.17 +0.14 5% 6.3
6 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) 3201 119+2 62.00 WWL -0.50 +0.15 2% 6.7
7 Rangers FC 2 6312 96+3 101.67 WWDLW -0.27 +0.17 3% 6.6
8 BOCA OC (2) 3111 64+2 41.33 DLW +0.14 +0.03 4% 6.3
9 Rayados Academy San Diego 7214 725-18 71.00 LDLLL -0.26 +0.46 0% 10.5
10 Chula Vista FC 2 7205 735-28 60.86 LLWLW -0.04 +0.45 0% 11.6
11 ALBION SC San Diego (1) 7124 420-16 50.71 LLDDL +0.30 +0.20 0% 10.5
12 Reds FC 2 6015 415-11 10.17 LLDLL +0.98 -0.11 0% 9.9
13 ALBION SC Santa Ana 2 6006 018-18 00.00 LLLLL +0.07 +0.31 0% 12.5

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.27 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.