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Crusaders SC

Elite Academy League 2 · SD / OC / IE U13 · 13 teams · Crusaders SC (all teams)

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2nd
7-1-0 record · 8 played
2.75 points per game
+25 goal diff · 33–8
WWWWWlast 5
100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.1
-0.23 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 01:00 PM

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Crusaders SC
2nd · 2.75 PPG
at
Chula Vista FC 2
10th · 0.86 PPG

Hoover High School, Stadium ↗ · turf?

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 6–0 (expected goals 6.3 for, 1.0 against · 2.93 expected points)

Season so farCrusaders SCChula Vista FC 2
Position2nd10th
Record (W-D-L)7-1-02-0-5
Points per game2.750.86
Goals for / game4.11.0
Goals against / game1.05.0
Clean sheets31
Held scoreless03
Form (recent first)W W W W WW L W L L
Biggest win8–0 vs ALBION SC San Diego (1)3–0 vs ALBION SC Santa Ana 2
Worst loss—0–13 vs EMPIRE SC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+2.17-2.76
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.23-0.04

Common opponents: ALBION SC San Diego (1) — we 8–0; they 0–1. Zeta Academy — we 4–1; they 0–7. FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) — we 6–0; they 1–8. ALBION SC Santa Ana 2 — we 3–0; they 3–0. Elite FC 2 — we 3–2; they 1–5.

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    Chula Vista FC 2 average 1.0 goals/game (league avg 2.3); blanked in 3 of 7.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    Chula Vista FC 2 concede 5.0/game; worst result 0–13 vs EMPIRE SC.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 97% chance; likely score 6–0.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 01:00 PM at Hoover High School.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Chula Vista FC 2 game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Crusaders SC – Chula Vista FC 2) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.78 PPG
2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Win
2.78 PPG
2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Draw
2.56 PPG
2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Loss
2.44 PPG
2nd— holds 3rd▼ down 1 3rd▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 6–0 win we stay 2nd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

28% finish 1st
100% top 4
0% below the top 4
2.1 average finish
  1. 1st 28%
  2. 2nd 43%
  3. 3rd 22%
  4. 4th 7%
  5. 5th <1%
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 16 remaining known games (max 2.92 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 AC Brea (2) 3.00 (+0.25) 3rd (2.22) 50 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection

How the results connect

24 chains · 11 teams

Paths of results that link Crusaders SC to Chula Vista FC 2 through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

21 favour us
2 even
1 favour them
+6.8 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–0 0–3 3–2 5–1 8–0 1–0 4–1 7–0 6–0 8–1 3–3 3–0 3–0 3–1 0–0 1–2 0–3 3–0 3–1 0–0 Crusaders SC 2nd ALBION SC Santa Ana… 13th Elite FC 2 5th ALBION SC San Diego… 11th Zeta Academy 4th FLYTE SC- Inland Em… 6th BOCA OC (2) 8th Rangers FC 2 7th Reds FC 2 12th Rayados Academy San… 9th Chula Vista FC 2 10th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

1st 7th 13th Sep 5 Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.04 · 11th hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
01:00 PM
Chula Vista FC 2
10th · 2-0-5 · GD -28
Away
Hoover High School · turf?
●○○○○ Favorable
97%
6–0 2.93 2.77 Bank it
Sat Oct 31
09:00 AM
AC Brea (2)
1st · 2-0-0 · GD +13
Home
Pershing Middle School
●●●○○ Toss-up
53%
3–2 1.77 2.67 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
11:05 AM
EMPIRE SC
3rd · 4-0-1 · GD +28
Home
Pershing Middle School
●●●●○ Tough
35%
2–2 1.24 2.54 Upside
Sun Nov 15
09:00 AM
ALBION SC San Diego (1)
11th · 1-2-4 · GD -16
Away
Hickman Fields
●○○○○ Favorable
90%
3–0 2.76 2.56 Bank it
Sat Mar 6
12:00 AM
BOCA OC (2)
8th · 1-1-1 · GD +2
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
73%
3–1 2.34 2.54 Bank it
Sat Mar 13
12:00 PM
Zeta Academy
4th · 4-1-1 · GD +16
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
41%
2–2 1.42 2.46 Upside
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2)
6th · 2-0-1 · GD +2
Away
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
74%
4–1 2.34 2.45 Bank it
Sat Mar 20
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Santa Ana 2
13th · 0-0-6 · GD -18
Away
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
93%
3–0 2.85 2.48 Bank it
Sun Mar 21
12:00 AM
Rayados Academy San Diego
9th · 2-1-4 · GD -18
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
97%
5–0 2.92 2.50 Bank it
Sun Apr 4
12:00 AM
Rangers FC 2
7th · 3-1-2 · GD +3
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
70%
2–1 2.26 2.49 Swing game
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM
Reds FC 2
12th · 0-1-5 · GD -11
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
90%
3–0 2.76 2.50 Bank it
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM
Elite FC 2
5th · 4-0-2 · GD +2
Away
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
70%
3–1 2.23 2.49 Swing game
Sun Apr 18
12:00 AM
Chula Vista FC 2
10th · 2-0-5 · GD -28
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
99%
7–0 2.97 2.51 Bank it
Sun Apr 25
12:00 AM
AC Brea (2)
1st · 2-0-0 · GD +13
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
41%
2–2 1.42 2.46 Upside
Sat May 1
12:00 AM
EMPIRE SC
3rd · 4-0-1 · GD +28
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
25%
2–3 0.91 2.40 Upside
Tue May 25
12:00 AM
Rayados Academy San Diego
9th · 2-1-4 · GD -18
Away
SONIA SOTOMAYOR ELEMENTARY SCHOOL
●○○○○ Favorable
94%
5–0 2.86 2.42 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 AC Brea (2) 2200 141+13 63.00 WW -1.91 +0.07 96% 3.1
2 Crusaders SC 8710 338+25 222.75 WWWWW -0.23 -0.04 100% 2.1
3 EMPIRE SC 5401 324+28 122.40 LWWWW -0.73 -0.05 100% 1.5
4 Zeta Academy 6411 215+16 132.17 WLWWD -0.38 +0.04 91% 3.5
5 Elite FC 2 6402 1513+2 122.00 WLWWL -0.17 +0.14 5% 6.2
6 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) 3201 119+2 62.00 WWL -0.50 +0.15 2% 6.7
7 Rangers FC 2 6312 96+3 101.67 WWDLW -0.27 +0.17 2% 6.6
8 BOCA OC (2) 3111 64+2 41.33 DLW +0.14 +0.03 4% 6.4
9 Rayados Academy San Diego 7214 725-18 71.00 LDLLL -0.26 +0.46 0% 10.5
10 Chula Vista FC 2 7205 735-28 60.86 LLWLW -0.04 +0.45 0% 11.6
11 ALBION SC San Diego (1) 7124 420-16 50.71 LLDDL +0.30 +0.20 0% 10.5
12 Reds FC 2 6015 415-11 10.17 LLDLL +0.98 -0.11 0% 9.8
13 ALBION SC Santa Ana 2 6006 018-18 00.00 LLLLL +0.07 +0.31 0% 12.5

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.27 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.