TableChase Clubs

AC Brea (2)

Elite Academy League 2 · SD / OC / IE U13 · 13 teams · AC Brea (all teams)

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1st
2-0-0 record · 2 played
3.00 points per game
+13 goal diff · 14–1
WWlast 2
95% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.0
-1.91 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 31, 09:00 AM

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AC Brea (2)
1st · 3.00 PPG
at
Crusaders SC
2nd · 2.75 PPG

Pershing Middle School, Pershing MS Field 1 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 2–3 (expected goals 2.3 for, 3.1 against · 1.06 expected points)

Season so farAC Brea (2)Crusaders SC
Position1st2nd
Record (W-D-L)2-0-07-1-0
Points per game3.002.75
Goals for / game7.04.1
Goals against / game0.51.0
Clean sheets13
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)W WW W W W W
Biggest win11–1 vs Rayados Academy San Diego8–0 vs ALBION SC San Diego (1)
Worst loss——
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+2.08+2.17
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-1.91-0.23

Common opponents: ALBION SC Santa Ana 2 — we 3–0; they 3–0.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Crusaders SC score 4.1/game — well above the league's 2.3.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Hard to break down
    Crusaders SC concede only 1.0/game with 3 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 30%; a draw (17%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • They arrive in form
    Crusaders SC have won 6 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 09:00 AM at Pershing Middle School.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Crusaders SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (AC Brea (2) – Crusaders SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 2.00 PPG
4th▼ down 3 6th▼ down 5 6th▼ down 5
Win
3.00 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Draw
2.33 PPG
3rd▼ down 2 3rd▼ down 2 3rd▼ down 2
Loss
2.00 PPG
4th▼ down 3 6th▼ down 5 6th▼ down 5

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–3 loss we fall to at least 3rd even if every rival loses, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

9% finish 1st
95% top 4
5% below the top 4
3.0 average finish
  1. 1st 9%
  2. 2nd 20%
  3. 3rd 38%
  4. 4th 28%
  5. 5th 4%
  6. 6th 1%
  7. 7th <1%
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

8 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link AC Brea (2) to Crusaders SC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

4 favour us
2 even
2 favour them
+3.1 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–0 0–3 0–3 3–3 0–3 2–3 11–1 0–8 1–4 2–1 0–8 0–3 0–0 1–3 3–0 AC Brea (2) 1st ALBION SC Santa Ana… 13th Rayados Academy San… 9th BOCA OC (2) 8th Elite FC 2 5th Zeta Academy 4th ALBION SC San Diego… 11th Rangers FC 2 7th Crusaders SC 2nd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

8 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

1st 7th 13th Sep 5 Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.07 · 8th hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 31
09:00 AM
Crusaders SC
2nd · 7-1-0 · GD +25
Away
Pershing Middle School
●●●●○ Tough
30%
2–3 1.06 2.35 Upside
Sat Nov 7
07:10 PM
Reds FC 2
12th · 0-1-5 · GD -11
Home
Grass - Whittier College · grass
●○○○○ Favorable
89%
4–0 2.75 2.45 Bank it
Sun Nov 8
01:10 PM
Chula Vista FC 2
10th · 2-0-5 · GD -28
Home
Grass - Whittier College · grass
●○○○○ Favorable
98%
7–1 2.96 2.56 Bank it
Sat Nov 14
09:00 AM
Elite FC 2
5th · 4-0-2 · GD +2
Away
Rosetta Canyon Sports Park
●●○○○ Lean win
66%
3–1 2.14 2.49 Swing game
Sun Nov 15
02:00 PM
EMPIRE SC
3rd · 4-0-1 · GD +28
Away
Eastvale Community Park
●●●●● Very tough
20%
2–3 0.73 2.23 Upside
Sun Nov 22
11:05 AM
EMPIRE SC
3rd · 4-0-1 · GD +28
Home
Grass - Whittier College · grass
●●●●○ Tough
30%
2–3 1.05 2.09 Upside
Sat Mar 6
12:00 AM
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2)
6th · 2-0-1 · GD +2
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
80%
4–2 2.50 2.13 Bank it
Sun Mar 7
01:10 PM
Zeta Academy
4th · 4-1-1 · GD +16
Home
Grass - Whittier College · grass
●●●○○ Toss-up
46%
2–2 1.58 2.08 Swing game
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM
Elite FC 2
5th · 4-0-2 · GD +2
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
76%
3–1 2.41 2.11 Bank it
Sat Mar 20
12:00 AM
Zeta Academy
4th · 4-1-1 · GD +16
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
36%
2–2 1.26 2.04 Upside
Sun Mar 21
12:00 AM
BOCA OC (2)
8th · 1-1-1 · GD +2
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
71%
3–1 2.26 2.05 Bank it
Sun Apr 4
12:00 AM
ALBION SC San Diego (1)
11th · 1-2-4 · GD -16
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
93%
4–0 2.85 2.11 Bank it
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM
Rayados Academy San Diego
9th · 2-1-4 · GD -18
Away
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
93%
5–1 2.84 2.16 Bank it
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Santa Ana 2
13th · 0-0-6 · GD -18
Away
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
93%
4–0 2.84 2.20 Bank it
Sun Apr 18
12:00 AM
Rangers FC 2
7th · 3-1-2 · GD +3
Away
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
58%
2–1 1.93 2.19 Swing game
Sun Apr 25
12:00 AM
Crusaders SC
2nd · 7-1-0 · GD +25
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
41%
2–2 1.40 2.14 Upside
Sat May 1
12:00 AM
Reds FC 2
12th · 0-1-5 · GD -11
Away
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
84%
3–1 2.61 2.17 Bank it
Sun May 2
12:00 AM
Chula Vista FC 2
10th · 2-0-5 · GD -28
Away
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
97%
6–1 2.92 2.21 Bank it
Sun May 23
01:00 PM
Rangers FC 2
7th · 3-1-2 · GD +3
Home
Grass - Whittier College · grass
●●○○○ Lean win
68%
2–1 2.19 2.20 Swing game
Tue May 25
12:00 AM
BOCA OC (2)
8th · 1-1-1 · GD +2
Away
El Rancho Charter School (Track Field)
●●○○○ Lean win
61%
2–1 1.98 2.19 Swing game
Tue May 25
12:00 AM
ALBION SC San Diego (1)
11th · 1-2-4 · GD -16
Away
Hickman Fields
●○○○○ Favorable
89%
4–0 2.75 2.22 Bank it
Sat May 29
09:00 AM
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2)
6th · 2-0-1 · GD +2
Away
RJRSP
●●○○○ Lean win
70%
4–2 2.23 2.22 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 AC Brea (2) 2200 141+13 63.00 WW -1.91 +0.07 95% 3.0
2 Crusaders SC 8710 338+25 222.75 WWWWW -0.23 -0.04 100% 2.0
3 EMPIRE SC 5401 324+28 122.40 LWWWW -0.73 -0.05 100% 1.6
4 Zeta Academy 6411 215+16 132.17 WLWWD -0.38 +0.04 91% 3.6
5 Elite FC 2 6402 1513+2 122.00 WLWWL -0.17 +0.14 5% 6.2
6 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) 3201 119+2 62.00 WWL -0.50 +0.15 3% 6.7
7 Rangers FC 2 6312 96+3 101.67 WWDLW -0.27 +0.17 2% 6.6
8 BOCA OC (2) 3111 64+2 41.33 DLW +0.14 +0.03 4% 6.3
9 Rayados Academy San Diego 7214 725-18 71.00 LDLLL -0.26 +0.46 0% 10.5
10 Chula Vista FC 2 7205 735-28 60.86 LLWLW -0.04 +0.45 0% 11.6
11 ALBION SC San Diego (1) 7124 420-16 50.71 LLDDL +0.30 +0.20 0% 10.5
12 Reds FC 2 6015 415-11 10.17 LLDLL +0.98 -0.11 0% 9.9
13 ALBION SC Santa Ana 2 6006 018-18 00.00 LLLLL +0.07 +0.31 0% 12.5

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.27 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.