TableChase Clubs

FC Premier

Elite Academy League 2 · LA South U15 · 12 teams · FC Premier (all teams)

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9th
0-2-1 record · 3 played
0.67 points per game
-4 goal diff · 4–8
DDLlast 3
1% chance of top 4 · expected finish 7.9
+0.60 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 02:15 PM

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FC Premier
9th · 0.67 PPG
vs

Ocean View High School, Stadium Turf ↗ · turf

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.8 for, 2.7 against · 0.91 expected points)

Season so farFC PremierSporting So-Cal Soccer Club
Position9th4th
Record (W-D-L)0-2-14-0-2
Points per game0.672.00
Goals for / game1.33.0
Goals against / game2.71.8
Clean sheets02
Held scoreless01
Form (recent first)L D DL W W L W
Biggest win—7–0 at FC Golden State Force (2)
Worst loss1–5 at Total Futbol Academy - OC 20–4 at Culver City
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.53+0.68
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.60-0.25

Game plan

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 24%; a draw (18%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • What a win does
    City SC Los Angeles 2 sit 8th on 1.00 PPG; we are on 0.67.

    A point moves us above City SC Los Angeles 2 on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC Premier – Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.50 PPG
10th▼ down 1 9th— holds 12th▼ down 3
Win
1.25 PPG
7th▲ up 2 8th▲ up 1 9th— holds
Draw
0.75 PPG
9th— holds 9th— holds 11th▼ down 2
Loss
0.50 PPG
10th▼ down 1 9th— holds 12th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 9th even if every rival loses, and as low as 12th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
1% top 4
100% below the top 4
7.9 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd <1%
  4. 4th <1%
  5. 5th 2%
  6. 6th 8%
  7. 7th 25%
  8. 8th 37%
  9. 9th 18%
  10. 10th 10%
  11. 11th <1%
  12. 12th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 19 remaining known games (max 2.68 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Culver City 3.00 (+2.33) 1st (2.72) 64 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 58 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Autobahn SA 2.50 (+1.83) 2nd (2.53) 53 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 54 for their projection
3 Total Futbol Academy - OC 2 2.50 (+1.83) 4th (1.86) 53 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 39 for their projection
4 Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club 2.00 (+1.33) 5th (1.79) 42 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection
5 Bell Gardens Football Club 1.83 (+1.16) 3rd (1.90) 39 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 40 for their projection
6 Downey United Football Club 1.43 (+0.76) 6th (1.53) 30 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection
7 Pride FC 1.20 (+0.53) 7th (1.28) A point next game
8 City SC Los Angeles 2 1.00 (+0.33) 10th (0.89) A point next game

How the results connect

9 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link FC Premier to Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

2 favour us
2 even
5 favour them
-1.1 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–2 3–2 2–3 1–1 4–0 0–4 1–5 5–0 1–3 3–0 2–2 1–2 4–1 3–1 1–2 4–0 0–8 FC Premier 9th Downey United Footb… 6th Bell Gardens Footba… 5th Total Futbol Academ… 3rd LAIFC (2) 10th Los Angeles SC 2 11th City SC Los Angeles… 8th Autobahn SA 2nd Culver City 1st Sporting So-Cal Soc… 4th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

9 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 6th 12th Sep 6 Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.05 · 7th hardest of 12

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 11
05:25 PM
no score posted
Pride FC
7th · 2-0-3 · GD +0
Away
Borchard Community Park
●●●●○ Tough
29%
1–2 1.05 0.76 Upside
Sat Oct 24
02:15 PM
Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club
4th · 4-0-2 · GD +7
Home
Ocean View High School · turf
●●●●● Very tough
24%
1–2 0.91 0.79 Upside
Sun Oct 25
03:00 PM
Culver City
1st · 6-0-0 · GD +24
Away
Culver City High School
●●●●● Very tough
3%
0–3 0.14 0.68 Upside
Sun Nov 1
12:20 PM
Los Angeles SC 2
11th · 0-1-5 · GD -19
Home
Fullerton High School · turf
●●○○○ Lean win
74%
2–1 2.36 0.92 Bank it
Sun Nov 8
12:20 PM
FC Golden State Force (2)
12th · 0-1-5 · GD -31
Home
Fullerton High School · turf
●○○○○ Favorable
85%
3–1 2.64 1.14 Bank it
Sat Nov 14
01:20 PM
City SC Los Angeles 2
8th · 2-0-4 · GD -12
Home
Fullerton High School · turf
●●○○○ Lean win
59%
2–1 1.96 1.23 Swing game
Sun Nov 15
12:00 AM
Bell Gardens Football Club
5th · 3-2-1 · GD +9
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
13%
1–2 0.53 1.16 Upside
Sun Feb 28
12:30 PM
City SC Los Angeles 2
8th · 2-0-4 · GD -12
Away
Lawndale High School · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up
49%
2–1 1.67 1.21 Swing game
Sat Mar 6
11:45 AM
Autobahn SA
2nd · 5-0-1 · GD +26
Away
Lincoln Middle Schol
●●●●● Very tough
3%
1–4 0.14 1.12 Upside
Sat Mar 13
01:20 PM
Downey United Football Club
6th · 3-1-3 · GD +3
Home
St John Bosco High School · turf
●●●●○ Tough
29%
1–2 1.09 1.11 Upside
Sun Mar 14
12:20 PM
Autobahn SA
2nd · 5-0-1 · GD +26
Home
St John Bosco High School · turf
●●●●● Very tough
5%
1–4 0.24 1.05 Upside
Sun Apr 4
12:00 AM
LAIFC (2)
10th · 1-1-5 · GD -8
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
39%
2–2 1.38 1.07 Upside
Sun Apr 11
12:20 PM
Pride FC
7th · 2-0-3 · GD +0
Home
St John Bosco High School · turf
●●●●○ Tough
38%
1–2 1.34 1.09 Upside
Sat Apr 17
01:20 PM
Total Futbol Academy - OC 2
3rd · 5-0-1 · GD +5
Home
St John Bosco High School · turf
●●●●○ Tough
27%
1–2 0.99 1.08 Upside
Sun Apr 18
12:00 AM
Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club
4th · 4-0-2 · GD +7
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
17%
1–3 0.66 1.06 Upside
Sun Apr 25
12:20 PM
Culver City
1st · 6-0-0 · GD +24
Home
St John Bosco High School · turf
●●●●● Very tough
5%
0–3 0.23 1.02 Upside
Sat May 1
12:00 AM
Los Angeles SC 2
11th · 0-1-5 · GD -19
Away
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
65%
2–1 2.14 1.07 Swing game
Sun May 2
12:00 AM
FC Golden State Force (2)
12th · 0-1-5 · GD -31
Away
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
78%
3–1 2.45 1.14 Bank it
Tue May 25
12:00 AM
LAIFC (2)
10th · 1-1-5 · GD -8
Home
Fullerton High School · turf
●●●○○ Toss-up
50%
2–1 1.69 1.16 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Culver City 6600 251+24 183.00 WWWWW -0.21 -0.28 100% 1.3
2 Autobahn SA 6501 315+26 152.50 WWWWW -0.19 -0.29 100% 1.8
3 Total Futbol Academy - OC 2 6501 1712+5 152.50 WLWWW +0.03 -0.10 62% 4.2
4 Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club 6402 1811+7 122.00 WLWWL -0.25 +0.02 51% 4.5
5 Bell Gardens Football Club 6321 156+9 111.83 WDWLW -0.07 -0.10 75% 3.9
6 Downey United Football Club 7313 1411+3 101.43 DWWLW +0.11 -0.11 10% 5.9
7 Pride FC 5203 1010+0 61.20 WWLLL -0.42 +0.16 1% 7.2
8 City SC Los Angeles 2 6204 618-12 61.00 LWLLW +0.12 +0.10 0% 9.3
9 FC Premier 3021 48-4 20.67 DDL +0.60 -0.05 1% 7.9
10 LAIFC (2) 7115 1119-8 40.57 LDLLL +0.07 +0.05 0% 9.1
11 Los Angeles SC 2 6015 221-19 10.17 LDLLL +0.04 +0.22 0% 11.2
12 FC Golden State Force (2) 6015 334-31 10.17 LDLLL +0.60 +0.20 0% 11.7

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.19 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.