Downey United Football Club
Elite Academy League 2 · LA South U15 · 12 teams · Downey United Football Club (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 12:05 PM
St. Pius X - St. Matthias Academy (PMA), Stadium ↗ · turf?
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 4–0 (expected goals 4.4 for, 0.9 against · 2.81 expected points)
| Season so far | Downey United Football Club | FC Golden State Force (2) |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 6th | 12th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-1-3 | 0-1-5 |
| Points per game | 1.43 | 0.17 |
| Goals for / game | 2.0 | 0.5 |
| Goals against / game | 1.6 | 5.7 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 4 |
| Form (recent first) | W L W W D | L L L D L |
| Biggest win | 3–0 vs Los Angeles SC 2 | — |
| Worst loss | 1–2 at Total Futbol Academy - OC 2 | 1–11 vs Autobahn SA |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.30 | -3.19 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.11 | +0.60 |
Common opponents: Pride FC — we 3–1; they 0–3. LAIFC (2) — we 3–2; they 0–3. Autobahn SA — we 1–2; they 1–11. Los Angeles SC 2 — we 3–0; they 2–2.
Game plan
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They struggle to score
FC Golden State Force (2) average 0.5 goals/game (league avg 2.2); blanked in 4 of 6.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
-
They leak goals — be greedy
FC Golden State Force (2) concede 5.7/game; worst result 1–11 vs Autobahn SA.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
-
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 92% chance; likely score 4–0.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
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Confidence is low on their side
FC Golden State Force (2) have lost 3 straight (form: LDLLL).Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the FC Golden State Force (2) game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Downey United Football Club – FC Golden State Force (2)) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.63 PPG |
6th— holds | 6th— holds | 6th— holds |
| Win 1.63 PPG |
6th— holds | 6th— holds | 6th— holds |
| Draw 1.38 PPG |
6th— holds | 7th▼ down 1 | 8th▼ down 2 |
| Loss 1.25 PPG |
6th— holds | 7th▼ down 1 | 9th▼ down 3 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 4–0 win we finish as high as 5th if every rival drops points, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd <1%
- 3rd 2%
- 4th 8%
- 5th 22%
- 6th 46%
- 7th 17%
- 8th 4%
- 9th <1%
- 10th <1%
- 11th
- 12th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 15 remaining known games (max 2.50 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Culver City | 3.00 (+1.57) | 1st (2.72) | 56 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 50 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Autobahn SA | 2.50 (+1.07) | 2nd (2.53) | 45 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 46 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Total Futbol Academy - OC 2 | 2.50 (+1.07) | 4th (1.86) | 45 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection |
| 4 | Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club | 2.00 (+0.57) | 5th (1.79) | 34 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection |
| 5 | Bell Gardens Football Club | 1.83 (+0.40) | 3rd (1.90) | 31 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection |
How the results connect
18 chains · 9 teams
Paths of results that link Downey United Football Club to FC Golden State Force (2) through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
10 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.11 · 10th hardest of 12
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 25 12:05 PM |
FC Golden State Force (2) 12th · 0-1-5 · GD -31 |
Home St. Pius X - St. Matthias Academy (PMA) · turf? |
●○○○○ Favorable | 92% |
4–0 | 2.81 | 1.60 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 1 01:30 PM |
Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club 4th · 4-0-2 · GD +7 |
Away Glendale High School · turf? |
●●●●○ Tough | 30% |
1–2 | 1.10 | 1.54 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 14 02:45 PM |
Autobahn SA 2nd · 5-0-1 · GD +26 |
Away Historic Belmar Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 8% |
1–3 | 0.36 | 1.43 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 15 12:05 PM |
Total Futbol Academy - OC 2 3rd · 5-0-1 · GD +5 |
Home St. Pius X - St. Matthias Academy (PMA) · turf? |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 42% |
2–1 | 1.47 | 1.43 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 22 12:05 PM |
City SC Los Angeles 2 8th · 2-0-4 · GD -12 |
Home St. Pius X - St. Matthias Academy (PMA) · turf? |
●●○○○ Lean win | 72% |
2–1 | 2.31 | 1.50 | Bank it |
| Sun Mar 7 12:00 AM |
Bell Gardens Football Club 5th · 3-2-1 · GD +9 |
Away TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 23% |
1–2 | 0.90 | 1.46 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 13 01:20 PM |
FC Premier 9th · 0-2-1 · GD -4 |
Away St John Bosco High School · turf |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 50% |
2–1 | 1.71 | 1.47 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 14 12:05 PM |
Pride FC 7th · 2-0-3 · GD +0 |
Home St. Pius X - St. Matthias Academy (PMA) · turf? |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 53% |
2–1 | 1.79 | 1.50 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 21 12:00 AM |
LAIFC (2) 10th · 1-1-5 · GD -8 |
Away TBD |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 54% |
2–1 | 1.83 | 1.52 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 4 12:05 PM |
Culver City 1st · 6-0-0 · GD +24 |
Home St. Pius X - St. Matthias Academy (PMA) · turf? |
●●●●● Very tough | 10% |
0–2 | 0.47 | 1.45 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 11 12:00 AM |
Los Angeles SC 2 11th · 0-1-5 · GD -19 |
Away TBD |
●○○○○ Favorable | 76% |
2–0 | 2.43 | 1.51 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 25 12:00 AM |
FC Golden State Force (2) 12th · 0-1-5 · GD -31 |
Away TBD |
●○○○○ Favorable | 87% |
3–0 | 2.68 | 1.57 | Bank it |
| Sun May 2 12:00 AM |
City SC Los Angeles 2 8th · 2-0-4 · GD -12 |
Away TBD |
●●○○○ Lean win | 63% |
2–1 | 2.07 | 1.60 | Swing game |
| Sun May 16 12:05 PM |
Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club 4th · 4-0-2 · GD +7 |
Home St. Pius X - St. Matthias Academy (PMA) · turf? |
●●●●○ Tough | 39% |
1–2 | 1.39 | 1.59 | Upside |
| Tue May 25 12:00 AM |
Culver City 1st · 6-0-0 · GD +24 |
Away Culver City High School |
●●●●● Very tough | 7% |
0–2 | 0.33 | 1.53 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Culver City | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 1 | +24 | 18 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.21 | -0.28 | 100% | 1.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs FC Premier · Sun Nov 1 at Total Futbol Academy - OC 2 · Sun Nov 8 at Pride FC See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Autobahn SA | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 31 | 5 | +26 | 15 | 2.50 | WWWWW | -0.19 | -0.29 | 100% | 1.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs LAIFC (2) · Sun Oct 25 vs City SC Los Angeles 2 · Sun Nov 1 at Pride FC See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Total Futbol Academy - OC 2 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 12 | +5 | 15 | 2.50 | WLWWW | +0.03 | -0.10 | 63% | 4.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC Golden State Force (2) · Sun Oct 25 at Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club · Sun Nov 1 vs Culver City See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 11 | +7 | 12 | 2.00 | WLWWL | -0.25 | +0.02 | 52% | 4.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC Premier · Sun Oct 25 vs Total Futbol Academy - OC 2 · Sun Nov 1 vs Downey United Football Club See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Bell Gardens Football Club | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 6 | +9 | 11 | 1.83 | WDWLW | -0.07 | -0.10 | 74% | 3.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs FC Golden State Force (2) · Sat Nov 7 at City SC Los Angeles 2 · Sun Nov 8 at Autobahn SA See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Downey United Football Club | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 10 | 1.43 | DWWLW | +0.11 | -0.11 | 10% | 5.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs FC Golden State Force (2) · Sun Nov 1 at Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club · Sat Nov 14 at Autobahn SA See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Pride FC | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 10 | +0 | 6 | 1.20 | WWLLL | -0.42 | +0.16 | 1% | 7.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 11 vs FC Premier · Sun Oct 25 at LAIFC (2) · Sun Nov 1 vs Autobahn SA See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | City SC Los Angeles 2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 6 | 1.00 | LWLLW | +0.12 | +0.10 | 0% | 9.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Autobahn SA · Sat Nov 7 vs Bell Gardens Football Club · Sat Nov 14 at FC Premier See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | FC Premier | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 2 | 0.67 | DDL | +0.60 | -0.05 | 0% | 7.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 11 at Pride FC · Sat Oct 24 vs Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club · Sun Oct 25 at Culver City See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | LAIFC (2) | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 19 | -8 | 4 | 0.57 | LDLLL | +0.07 | +0.05 | 0% | 9.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Autobahn SA · Sun Oct 25 vs Pride FC · Sun Nov 8 vs Los Angeles SC 2 See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Los Angeles SC 2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 21 | -19 | 1 | 0.17 | LDLLL | +0.04 | +0.22 | 0% | 11.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at FC Premier · Sun Nov 8 at LAIFC (2) · Sat Nov 14 at Culver City See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | FC Golden State Force (2) | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 34 | -31 | 1 | 0.17 | LDLLL | +0.60 | +0.20 | 0% | 11.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Total Futbol Academy - OC 2 · Sun Oct 25 at Downey United Football Club · Sun Nov 1 at Bell Gardens Football Club See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.19 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.