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Bell Gardens Football Club

Elite Academy League 2 · LA South U15 · 12 teams · Bell Gardens Football Club (all teams)

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5th
3-2-1 record · 6 played
1.83 points per game
+9 goal diff · 15–6
WDWLWlast 5
74% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.9
-0.07 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Nov 1, 01:10 PM

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Bell Gardens Football Club
5th · 1.83 PPG
vs

JW NORTH Stadium, JW NORTH Stadium ↗ · turf?

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 5–0 (expected goals 5.2 for, 0.7 against · 2.91 expected points)

Season so farBell Gardens Football ClubFC Golden State Force (2)
Position5th12th
Record (W-D-L)3-2-10-1-5
Points per game1.830.17
Goals for / game2.50.5
Goals against / game1.05.7
Clean sheets20
Held scoreless04
Form (recent first)W L W D WL L L D L
Biggest win5–0 vs Pride FC—
Worst loss1–2 vs Culver City1–11 vs Autobahn SA
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.99-3.19
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.07+0.60

Common opponents: LAIFC (2) — we 2–2; they 0–3. Los Angeles SC 2 — we 4–0; they 2–2. Culver City — we 1–2; they 0–8. Pride FC — we 5–0; they 0–3.

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    FC Golden State Force (2) average 0.5 goals/game (league avg 2.2); blanked in 4 of 6.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    FC Golden State Force (2) concede 5.7/game; worst result 1–11 vs Autobahn SA.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 96% chance; likely score 5–0.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Confidence is low on their side
    FC Golden State Force (2) have lost 3 straight (form: LDLLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

  • What a win does
    Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club sit 4th on 2.00 PPG; we are on 1.83.

    A win moves us above Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the FC Golden State Force (2) game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Bell Gardens Football Club – FC Golden State Force (2)) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.00 PPG
4th▲ up 1 5th— holds 5th— holds
Win
2.00 PPG
4th▲ up 1 5th— holds 5th— holds
Draw
1.71 PPG
5th— holds 5th— holds 5th— holds
Loss
1.57 PPG
5th— holds 5th— holds 6th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 5–0 win we finish as high as 4th if every rival drops points, and as low as 5th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
74% top 4
26% below the top 4
3.9 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd 1%
  3. 3rd 44%
  4. 4th 29%
  5. 5th 19%
  6. 6th 6%
  7. 7th 1%
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 16 remaining known games (max 2.68 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Culver City 3.00 (+1.17) 1st (2.72) 55 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 49 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Autobahn SA 2.50 (+0.67) 2nd (2.53) 44 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 45 for their projection
3 Total Futbol Academy - OC 2 2.50 (+0.67) 4th (1.86) 44 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection
4 Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club 2.00 (+0.17) 5th (1.79) Win next game

How the results connect

15 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link Bell Gardens Football Club to FC Golden State Force (2) through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

15 favour us
0 favour them
+6.6 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–2 3–0 4–0 2–2 1–2 8–0 5–0 3–0 0–5 2–1 3–0 3–2 2–3 7–0 3–1 0–4 0–6 11–1 Bell Gardens Footba… 5th LAIFC (2) 10th Los Angeles SC 2 11th Culver City 1st Pride FC 7th Downey United Footb… 6th Sporting So-Cal Soc… 4th Autobahn SA 2nd FC Golden State For… 12th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 6th 12th Sep 6 Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.10 · 8th hardest of 12

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Nov 1
01:10 PM
FC Golden State Force (2)
12th · 0-1-5 · GD -31
Home
JW NORTH Stadium · turf?
●○○○○ Favorable
96%
5–0 2.91 1.99 Bank it
Sat Nov 7
02:30 PM
City SC Los Angeles 2
8th · 2-0-4 · GD -12
Away
Lawndale High School · turf?
●●○○○ Lean win
75%
2–1 2.39 2.04 Bank it
Sun Nov 8
10:00 AM
Autobahn SA
2nd · 5-0-1 · GD +26
Away
John Adams Middle School (
●●●●● Very tough
16%
1–2 0.62 1.88 Upside
Sat Nov 14
01:00 PM
Total Futbol Academy - OC 2
3rd · 5-0-1 · GD +5
Away
Hoover High School · turf
●●●○○ Toss-up
46%
2–1 1.59 1.85 Swing game
Sun Nov 15
12:00 AM
FC Premier
9th · 0-2-1 · GD -4
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
72%
2–1 2.32 1.89 Bank it
Sun Nov 22
01:10 PM
Total Futbol Academy - OC 2
3rd · 5-0-1 · GD +5
Home
JW NORTH Stadium · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up
57%
2–1 1.88 1.89 Swing game
Sun Mar 7
12:00 AM
Downey United Football Club
6th · 3-1-3 · GD +3
Home
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
56%
2–1 1.89 1.89 Swing game
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM
LAIFC (2)
10th · 1-1-5 · GD -8
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
76%
3–1 2.42 1.93 Bank it
Sun Mar 21
12:00 AM
Los Angeles SC 2
11th · 0-1-5 · GD -19
Away
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
85%
3–0 2.65 1.98 Bank it
Sun Apr 4
12:00 AM
Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club
4th · 4-0-2 · GD +7
Home
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
53%
2–1 1.80 1.97 Swing game
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM
Culver City
1st · 6-0-0 · GD +24
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
12%
0–2 0.54 1.88 Upside
Sat Apr 17
12:00 AM
Pride FC
7th · 2-0-3 · GD +0
Away
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
57%
2–1 1.90 1.88 Swing game
Sun Apr 18
12:00 AM
City SC Los Angeles 2
8th · 2-0-4 · GD -12
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
82%
3–0 2.57 1.92 Bank it
Sat May 1
12:00 AM
FC Golden State Force (2)
12th · 0-1-5 · GD -31
Away
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
93%
4–0 2.84 1.97 Bank it
Sun May 2
12:00 AM
Autobahn SA
2nd · 5-0-1 · GD +26
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
23%
1–2 0.86 1.91 Upside
Sun May 23
11:30 AM
Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club
4th · 4-0-2 · GD +7
Away
Glendale High School · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up
43%
2–1 1.51 1.90 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Culver City 6600 251+24 183.00 WWWWW -0.21 -0.28 100% 1.2
2 Autobahn SA 6501 315+26 152.50 WWWWW -0.19 -0.29 100% 1.8
3 Total Futbol Academy - OC 2 6501 1712+5 152.50 WLWWW +0.03 -0.10 63% 4.2
4 Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club 6402 1811+7 122.00 WLWWL -0.25 +0.02 52% 4.5
5 Bell Gardens Football Club 6321 156+9 111.83 WDWLW -0.07 -0.10 74% 3.9
6 Downey United Football Club 7313 1411+3 101.43 DWWLW +0.11 -0.11 10% 5.8
7 Pride FC 5203 1010+0 61.20 WWLLL -0.42 +0.16 1% 7.3
8 City SC Los Angeles 2 6204 618-12 61.00 LWLLW +0.12 +0.10 0% 9.4
9 FC Premier 3021 48-4 20.67 DDL +0.60 -0.05 0% 7.9
10 LAIFC (2) 7115 1119-8 40.57 LDLLL +0.07 +0.05 0% 9.1
11 Los Angeles SC 2 6015 221-19 10.17 LDLLL +0.04 +0.22 0% 11.2
12 FC Golden State Force (2) 6015 334-31 10.17 LDLLL +0.60 +0.20 0% 11.7

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.19 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.