TableChase Clubs

Culver City

Elite Academy League 2 · LA South U13 · 12 teams · Culver City Football Club (all teams)

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4th
3-1-2 record · 6 played
1.67 points per game
+7 goal diff · 16–9
WDWLWlast 5
59% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.4
-0.36 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 06:40 PM

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Culver City
4th · 1.67 PPG
vs
FC Premier
3rd · 2.00 PPG

Culver City High School, Helms Field ↗

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.1 for, 2.0 against · 1.49 expected points)

Season so farCulver CityFC Premier
Position4th3rd
Record (W-D-L)3-1-22-0-1
Points per game1.672.00
Goals for / game2.72.7
Goals against / game1.51.7
Clean sheets21
Held scoreless10
Form (recent first)W L W D WL W W
Biggest win8–0 at City SC Los Angeles 22–0 vs Bell Gardens Football Club
Worst loss0–3 at Bell Gardens Football Club3–4 at Total Futbol Academy - OC 2
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.66+0.80
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.36+1.55

Common opponents: Bell Gardens Football Club — we 0–3; they 2–0.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–3 at Bell Gardens Football Club.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 43% / draw 20% / loss 37%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the FC Premier game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Culver City – FC Premier) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 1.86 PPG
3rd▲ up 1 4th— holds 5th▼ down 1
Win
1.86 PPG
3rd▲ up 1 4th— holds 5th▼ down 1
Draw
1.57 PPG
6th▼ down 2 5th▼ down 1 7th▼ down 3
Loss
1.43 PPG
6th▼ down 2 5th▼ down 1 7th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 3rd if every rival drops points, and as low as 5th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
59% top 4
41% below the top 4
4.4 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd 1%
  3. 3rd 20%
  4. 4th 38%
  5. 5th 25%
  6. 6th 12%
  7. 7th 3%
  8. 8th 1%
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 16 remaining known games (max 2.64 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Total Futbol Academy - OC 2 3.00 (+1.33) 1st (2.65) 56 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 49 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Bell Gardens Football Club 2.50 (+0.83) 2nd (2.35) 45 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 42 for their projection
3 FC Premier 2.00 (+0.33) 3rd (1.95) 34 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection

How the results connect

8 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Culver City to FC Premier through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us
8 favour them
-3.9 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–3 0–2 5–1 1–3 8–0 0–10 4–3 1–0 0–6 1–2 1–2 0–4 0–5 0–5 Culver City 4th Bell Gardens Footba… 2nd City SC Los Angeles… 9th LAIFC (2) 10th Autobahn SA 6th Downey United Footb… 8th Total Futbol Academ… 1st FC Premier 3rd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

8 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 6th 12th Sep 6 Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.08 · 5th hardest of 12

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
06:40 PM
FC Premier
3rd · 2-0-1 · GD +3
Home
Culver City High School
●●●○○ Toss-up
43%
2–1 1.49 1.64 Swing game
Sun Nov 1
12:00 PM
Total Futbol Academy - OC 2
1st · 6-0-0 · GD +30
Away
Glendale Sports Complex · turf
●●●●● Very tough
10%
1–3 0.42 1.49 Upside
Sun Nov 8
05:25 PM
Pride FC
7th · 2-0-3 · GD -6
Away
Borchard Community Park
●●○○○ Lean win
58%
2–1 1.94 1.54 Swing game
Sat Nov 14
06:40 PM
Los Angeles SC 2
11th · 1-2-3 · GD -8
Home
Culver City High School
●●○○○ Lean win
73%
3–1 2.34 1.62 Bank it
Sun Nov 15
03:00 PM
Autobahn SA
6th · 3-1-2 · GD -1
Home
Culver City High School
●●●○○ Toss-up
55%
2–1 1.86 1.64 Swing game
Sun Mar 7
12:00 AM
LAIFC (2)
10th · 2-0-5 · GD -13
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
77%
3–1 2.45 1.71 Bank it
Sat Mar 13
12:00 AM
Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club
5th · 3-1-2 · GD +7
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
37%
1–2 1.32 1.68 Upside
Sun Mar 21
12:00 AM
City SC Los Angeles 2
9th · 2-0-4 · GD -19
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
86%
4–1 2.65 1.75 Bank it
Sun Apr 4
09:00 AM
Downey United Football Club
8th · 2-1-4 · GD -6
Away
St. Pius X - St. Matthias Academy (PMA) · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up
56%
2–1 1.86 1.76 Swing game
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM
Bell Gardens Football Club
2nd · 5-0-1 · GD +18
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
24%
1–2 0.92 1.70 Upside
Sat Apr 17
12:00 AM
FC Golden State Force (2)
12th · 1-0-5 · GD -12
Away
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
72%
3–1 2.30 1.74 Bank it
Sun Apr 25
09:00 AM
FC Premier
3rd · 2-0-1 · GD +3
Away
St John Bosco High School · turf
●●●●○ Tough
33%
1–2 1.19 1.71 Upside
Sat May 1
12:00 AM
Total Futbol Academy - OC 2
1st · 6-0-0 · GD +30
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
16%
1–3 0.63 1.65 Upside
Sun May 2
12:00 AM
Pride FC
7th · 2-0-3 · GD -6
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
68%
2–1 2.20 1.68 Swing game
Tue May 25
12:00 AM
Downey United Football Club
8th · 2-1-4 · GD -6
Home
Culver City High School
●●○○○ Lean win
65%
2–1 2.13 1.70 Swing game
Thu May 27
06:40 PM
Los Angeles SC 2
11th · 1-2-3 · GD -8
Away
West Covina High School
●●○○○ Lean win
64%
2–1 2.09 1.72 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Total Futbol Academy - OC 2 6600 355+30 183.00 WWWWW -0.56 -0.13 100% 1.1
2 Bell Gardens Football Club 6501 235+18 152.50 WWWWW -0.31 -0.11 100% 2.0
3 FC Premier 3201 85+3 62.00 WWL +1.55 -0.30 88% 3.4
4 Culver City 6312 169+7 101.67 WDWLW -0.36 +0.08 59% 4.4
5 Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club 6312 169+7 101.67 LDWWL -0.84 +0.26 34% 5.0
6 Autobahn SA 6312 89-1 101.67 DLWLW +0.21 -0.06 18% 5.6
7 Pride FC 5203 814-6 61.20 WLWLL +0.30 +0.03 1% 7.8
8 Downey United Football Club 7214 1117-6 71.00 LLWWD +0.34 -0.11 1% 7.7
9 City SC Los Angeles 2 6204 1332-19 61.00 WLLLW +0.18 +0.18 0% 10.3
10 LAIFC (2) 7205 720-13 60.86 WLLLL +0.32 +0.04 0% 10.1
11 Los Angeles SC 2 6123 917-8 50.83 DLWLD -0.26 +0.23 0% 9.5
12 FC Golden State Force (2) 6105 820-12 30.50 LWLLL -0.23 +0.30 0% 11.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.29 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.