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Bell Gardens Football Club

Elite Academy League 2 · LA South U13 · 12 teams · Bell Gardens Football Club (all teams)

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2nd
5-0-1 record · 6 played
2.50 points per game
+18 goal diff · 23–5
WWWWWlast 5
100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.0
-0.31 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Nov 1, 11:40 AM

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Bell Gardens Football Club
2nd · 2.50 PPG
vs

JW NORTH Stadium, JW NORTH Stadium ↗ · turf?

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 4–0 (expected goals 4.9 for, 1.0 against · 2.84 expected points)

Season so farBell Gardens Football ClubFC Golden State Force (2)
Position2nd12th
Record (W-D-L)5-0-11-0-5
Points per game2.500.50
Goals for / game3.81.3
Goals against / game0.83.3
Clean sheets30
Held scoreless12
Form (recent first)W W W W WL L L W L
Biggest win7–0 vs Los Angeles SC 23–2 at Los Angeles SC 2
Worst loss0–2 at FC Premier0–5 vs Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.93-1.45
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.31-0.23

Common opponents: LAIFC (2) — we 4–0; they 0–3. Los Angeles SC 2 — we 7–0; they 3–2. Culver City — we 3–0; they 2–4. Pride FC — we 4–2; they 2–3.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–2 at FC Premier.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 93% chance; likely score 4–0.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Confidence is low on their side
    FC Golden State Force (2) have lost 3 straight (form: LWLLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the FC Golden State Force (2) game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Bell Gardens Football Club – FC Golden State Force (2)) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.57 PPG
2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Win
2.57 PPG
2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Draw
2.29 PPG
2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Loss
2.14 PPG
2nd— holds 3rd▼ down 1 3rd▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 4–0 win we stay 2nd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

13% finish 1st
100% top 4
0% below the top 4
2.0 average finish
  1. 1st 13%
  2. 2nd 77%
  3. 3rd 9%
  4. 4th 1%
  5. 5th <1%
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 16 remaining known games (max 2.86 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Total Futbol Academy - OC 2 3.00 (+0.50) 1st (2.65) 51 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 44 for their projection

How the results connect

15 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link Bell Gardens Football Club to FC Golden State Force (2) through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

15 favour us
0 favour them
+6.7 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
4–2 3–2 3–0 4–2 7–0 2–3 4–0 3–0 5–1 1–1 1–2 3–1 0–1 0–1 2–1 2–2 5–0 0–0 Bell Gardens Footba… 2nd Pride FC 7th Culver City 4th Los Angeles SC 2 11th LAIFC (2) 10th Downey United Footb… 8th Autobahn SA 6th Sporting So-Cal Soc… 5th FC Golden State For… 12th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 6th 12th Sep 6 Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.11 · 10th hardest of 12

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Nov 1
11:40 AM
FC Golden State Force (2)
12th · 1-0-5 · GD -12
Home
JW NORTH Stadium · turf?
●○○○○ Favorable
93%
4–0 2.84 2.55 Bank it
Sat Nov 7
09:00 AM
City SC Los Angeles 2
9th · 2-0-4 · GD -19
Away
Lawndale High School · turf?
●○○○○ Favorable
93%
5–1 2.82 2.58 Bank it
Sun Nov 8
08:30 AM
Autobahn SA
6th · 3-1-2 · GD -1
Away
John Adams Middle School (
●●○○○ Lean win
66%
2–1 2.16 2.54 Swing game
Sat Nov 14
09:30 AM
Total Futbol Academy - OC 2
1st · 6-0-0 · GD +30
Away
Hoover High School · turf
●●●●○ Tough
26%
1–2 0.94 2.38 Upside
Sun Nov 15
12:00 AM
FC Premier
3rd · 2-0-1 · GD +3
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
66%
2–1 2.13 2.35 Swing game
Sun Nov 22
11:40 AM
Total Futbol Academy - OC 2
1st · 6-0-0 · GD +30
Home
JW NORTH Stadium · turf?
●●●●○ Tough
35%
2–2 1.24 2.26 Upside
Sun Mar 7
12:00 AM
Downey United Football Club
8th · 2-1-4 · GD -6
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
84%
3–1 2.60 2.29 Bank it
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM
LAIFC (2)
10th · 2-0-5 · GD -13
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
91%
4–0 2.78 2.32 Bank it
Sun Mar 21
12:00 AM
Los Angeles SC 2
11th · 1-2-3 · GD -8
Away
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
83%
3–1 2.58 2.34 Bank it
Sun Apr 4
12:00 AM
Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club
5th · 3-1-2 · GD +7
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
69%
2–1 2.22 2.33 Swing game
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM
Culver City
4th · 3-1-2 · GD +7
Away
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
57%
2–1 1.89 2.31 Swing game
Sat Apr 17
12:00 AM
Pride FC
7th · 2-0-3 · GD -6
Away
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
78%
3–1 2.47 2.32 Bank it
Sun Apr 18
12:00 AM
City SC Los Angeles 2
9th · 2-0-4 · GD -19
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
96%
6–1 2.91 2.35 Bank it
Sat May 1
12:00 AM
FC Golden State Force (2)
12th · 1-0-5 · GD -12
Away
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
88%
4–1 2.72 2.37 Bank it
Sun May 2
12:00 AM
Autobahn SA
6th · 3-1-2 · GD -1
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
74%
2–0 2.37 2.37 Bank it
Sun May 23
09:40 AM
Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club
5th · 3-1-2 · GD +7
Away
Glendale High School · turf?
●●○○○ Lean win
59%
2–1 1.96 2.35 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Total Futbol Academy - OC 2 6600 355+30 183.00 WWWWW -0.56 -0.13 100% 1.1
2 Bell Gardens Football Club 6501 235+18 152.50 WWWWW -0.31 -0.11 100% 2.0
3 FC Premier 3201 85+3 62.00 WWL +1.55 -0.30 87% 3.4
4 Culver City 6312 169+7 101.67 WDWLW -0.36 +0.08 58% 4.4
5 Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club 6312 169+7 101.67 LDWWL -0.84 +0.26 36% 5.0
6 Autobahn SA 6312 89-1 101.67 DLWLW +0.21 -0.06 16% 5.7
7 Pride FC 5203 814-6 61.20 WLWLL +0.30 +0.03 1% 7.8
8 Downey United Football Club 7214 1117-6 71.00 LLWWD +0.34 -0.11 1% 7.7
9 City SC Los Angeles 2 6204 1332-19 61.00 WLLLW +0.18 +0.18 0% 10.4
10 LAIFC (2) 7205 720-13 60.86 WLLLL +0.32 +0.04 0% 10.0
11 Los Angeles SC 2 6123 917-8 50.83 DLWLD -0.26 +0.23 0% 9.5
12 FC Golden State Force (2) 6105 820-12 30.50 LWLLL -0.23 +0.30 0% 11.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.29 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.