TableChase Clubs

Autobahn SA

Elite Academy League 2 · LA South U13 · 12 teams · Autobahn SA (all teams)

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6th
3-1-2 record · 6 played
1.67 points per game
-1 goal diff · 8–9
DLWLWlast 5
15% chance of top 4 · expected finish 5.7
+0.21 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 03:30 PM

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Autobahn SA
6th · 1.67 PPG
vs
LAIFC (2)
10th · 0.86 PPG

Lincoln Middle Schol, Lincoln Middle School ↗

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 2–0 (expected goals 2.1 for, 1.0 against · 2.07 expected points)

Season so farAutobahn SALAIFC (2)
Position6th10th
Record (W-D-L)3-1-22-0-5
Points per game1.670.86
Goals for / game1.31.0
Goals against / game1.52.9
Clean sheets22
Held scoreless24
Form (recent first)W L W L DL L L L W
Biggest win3–1 at FC Golden State Force (2)3–0 at FC Golden State Force (2)
Worst loss0–5 vs Total Futbol Academy - OC 20–6 at Total Futbol Academy - OC 2
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.05-1.23
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.21+0.32

Common opponents: Culver City — we 2–1; they 0–1. Total Futbol Academy - OC 2 — we 0–5; they 0–6. FC Golden State Force (2) — we 3–1; they 3–0. Downey United Football Club — we 1–2; they 0–5. Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club — we 2–0; they 2–0.

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    LAIFC (2) average 1.0 goals/game (league avg 2.3); blanked in 4 of 7.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–0 at Los Angeles SC 2, 0–5 vs Total Futbol Academy - OC 2.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 62% / draw 21% / loss 17%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Confidence is low on their side
    LAIFC (2) have lost 4 straight (form: WLLLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

  • What a win does
    Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club sit 5th on 1.67 PPG; we are on 1.67.

    A point moves us above Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the LAIFC (2) game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Autobahn SA – LAIFC (2)) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 1.86 PPG
4th▲ up 2 4th▲ up 2 6th— holds
Win
1.86 PPG
4th▲ up 2 4th▲ up 2 6th— holds
Draw
1.57 PPG
6th— holds 5th▲ up 1 7th▼ down 1
Loss
1.43 PPG
6th— holds 5th▲ up 1 7th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–0 win we finish as high as 3rd if every rival drops points, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
15% top 4
85% below the top 4
5.7 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd <1%
  3. 3rd 4%
  4. 4th 11%
  5. 5th 26%
  6. 6th 40%
  7. 7th 13%
  8. 8th 5%
  9. 9th 1%
  10. 10th <1%
  11. 11th <1%
  12. 12th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 16 remaining known games (max 2.64 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Total Futbol Academy - OC 2 3.00 (+1.33) 1st (2.65) 56 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 49 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Bell Gardens Football Club 2.50 (+0.83) 2nd (2.35) 45 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 42 for their projection
3 FC Premier 2.00 (+0.33) 3rd (1.95) 34 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection
4 Culver City 1.67 (+0.00) 4th (1.72) A point next game
5 Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club 1.67 (+0.00) 5th (1.61) A point next game

How the results connect

23 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Autobahn SA to LAIFC (2) through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

13 favour us
3 even
7 favour them
+1.7 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–0 0–2 3–1 0–3 0–5 6–0 2–1 1–0 1–2 5–0 1–6 4–2 1–5 4–0 2–2 0–3 Autobahn SA 6th Sporting So-Cal Soc… 5th FC Golden State For… 12th Total Futbol Academ… 1st Culver City 4th Downey United Footb… 8th Bell Gardens Footba… 2nd LAIFC (2) 10th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 6th 12th Sep 6 Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.06 · 8th hardest of 12

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
03:30 PM
LAIFC (2)
10th · 2-0-5 · GD -13
Home
Lincoln Middle Schol
●●○○○ Lean win
62%
2–0 2.07 1.72 Swing game
Sun Oct 25
12:00 PM
City SC Los Angeles 2
9th · 2-0-4 · GD -19
Home
Lincoln Middle Schol
●●○○○ Lean win
71%
3–1 2.27 1.79 Bank it
Sun Nov 1
12:05 PM
Pride FC
7th · 2-0-3 · GD -6
Away
Borchard Community Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
43%
1–1 1.53 1.76 Swing game
Sun Nov 8
08:30 AM
Bell Gardens Football Club
2nd · 5-0-1 · GD +18
Home
John Adams Middle School (
●●●●● Very tough
16%
1–2 0.66 1.65 Upside
Sat Nov 14
03:45 PM
Downey United Football Club
8th · 2-1-4 · GD -6
Home
Santa Monica High School
●●●○○ Toss-up
50%
1–1 1.72 1.66 Swing game
Sun Nov 15
03:00 PM
Culver City
4th · 3-1-2 · GD +7
Away
Culver City High School
●●●●● Very tough
24%
1–2 0.92 1.60 Upside
Sat Mar 6
08:30 AM
FC Premier
3rd · 2-0-1 · GD +3
Home
Lincoln Middle Schol
●●●●○ Tough
30%
1–1 1.12 1.56 Upside
Sun Mar 7
12:00 AM
Los Angeles SC 2
11th · 1-2-3 · GD -8
Home
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
57%
2–1 1.93 1.59 Swing game
Sat Mar 13
12:00 AM
Total Futbol Academy - OC 2
1st · 6-0-0 · GD +30
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
6%
1–3 0.28 1.50 Upside
Sun Mar 14
09:00 AM
FC Premier
3rd · 2-0-1 · GD +3
Away
St John Bosco High School · turf
●●●●● Very tough
22%
1–2 0.87 1.46 Upside
Sun Mar 21
12:00 AM
FC Golden State Force (2)
12th · 1-0-5 · GD -12
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
65%
2–1 2.14 1.50 Swing game
Sat Apr 17
12:00 AM
Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club
5th · 3-1-2 · GD +7
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
33%
1–1 1.23 1.49 Upside
Sun Apr 18
12:00 AM
LAIFC (2)
10th · 2-0-5 · GD -13
Away
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
54%
1–1 1.84 1.50 Swing game
Sun Apr 25
12:00 AM
City SC Los Angeles 2
9th · 2-0-4 · GD -19
Away
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
61%
2–1 1.99 1.53 Swing game
Sat May 1
12:00 AM
Pride FC
7th · 2-0-3 · GD -6
Home
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
52%
1–1 1.79 1.54 Swing game
Sun May 2
12:00 AM
Bell Gardens Football Club
2nd · 5-0-1 · GD +18
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
11%
0–2 0.48 1.49 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Total Futbol Academy - OC 2 6600 355+30 183.00 WWWWW -0.56 -0.13 100% 1.1
2 Bell Gardens Football Club 6501 235+18 152.50 WWWWW -0.31 -0.11 100% 2.0
3 FC Premier 3201 85+3 62.00 WWL +1.55 -0.30 88% 3.4
4 Culver City 6312 169+7 101.67 WDWLW -0.36 +0.08 60% 4.4
5 Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club 6312 169+7 101.67 LDWWL -0.84 +0.26 35% 4.9
6 Autobahn SA 6312 89-1 101.67 DLWLW +0.21 -0.06 15% 5.7
7 Pride FC 5203 814-6 61.20 WLWLL +0.30 +0.03 1% 7.9
8 Downey United Football Club 7214 1117-6 71.00 LLWWD +0.34 -0.11 1% 7.8
9 City SC Los Angeles 2 6204 1332-19 61.00 WLLLW +0.18 +0.18 0% 10.4
10 LAIFC (2) 7205 720-13 60.86 WLLLL +0.32 +0.04 0% 10.0
11 Los Angeles SC 2 6123 917-8 50.83 DLWLD -0.26 +0.23 0% 9.4
12 FC Golden State Force (2) 6105 820-12 30.50 LWLLL -0.23 +0.30 0% 11.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.29 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.