TableChase Clubs

Valley United Soccer Club

Elite Academy League 2 · LA North U19 · 13 teams · Valley United Soccer Club (all teams)

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6th
3-1-3 record · 7 played
1.43 points per game
+3 goal diff · 17–14
WWLWDlast 5
15% chance of top 4 · expected finish 6.5
-0.43 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 10:50 AM

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Valley United Soccer Club
6th · 1.43 PPG
vs
Central Coast United Soccer Club
2nd · 2.57 PPG

Valley United Soccer Complex, Olivar ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.5 for, 2.5 against · 0.86 expected points)

Season so farValley United Soccer ClubCentral Coast United Soccer Club
Position6th2nd
Record (W-D-L)3-1-36-0-1
Points per game1.432.57
Goals for / game2.43.3
Goals against / game2.01.0
Clean sheets13
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)D W L W WW W W L W
Biggest win3–1 at FC Man United5–0 at ALBION SC SCV
Worst loss1–2 vs Central Coast Surf Soccer1–3 at Central Coast Surf Soccer
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.19+1.42
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.43-0.26

Common opponents: Central Coast Surf Soccer — we 1–2; they 1–3. FC Man United — we 3–1; they 5–1. LA Surf SC SFV — we 2–3; they 2–1. ALBION SC SCV — we 4–2; they 5–0. TFA-SGV — we 3–3; they 5–0.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Central Coast United Soccer Club score 3.3/game — well above the league's 2.1.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Hard to break down
    Central Coast United Soccer Club concede only 1.0/game with 3 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 22%; a draw (19%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • They arrive in form
    Central Coast United Soccer Club have won 3 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

  • What a win does
    LA Surf SC SFV sit 5th on 1.50 PPG; we are on 1.43.

    A point moves us above LA Surf SC SFV on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Central Coast United Soccer Club game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Valley United Soccer Club – Central Coast United Soccer Club) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 1.25 PPG		 8th▼ down 2 8th▼ down 2 10th▼ down 4
Win
1.63 PPG		 5th▲ up 1 4th▲ up 2 6th— holds
Draw
1.38 PPG		 8th▼ down 2 7th▼ down 1 9th▼ down 3
Loss
1.25 PPG		 8th▼ down 2 8th▼ down 2 10th▼ down 4

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–2 loss we finish as high as 5th if every rival drops points, and as low as 10th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
15% top 4
85% below the top 4
6.5 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd <1%
  3. 3rd <1%
  4. 4th 14%
  5. 5th 20%
  6. 6th 21%
  7. 7th 17%
  8. 8th 12%
  9. 9th 7%
  10. 10th 5%
  11. 11th 2%
  12. 12th 1%
  13. 13th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 17 remaining known games (max 2.54 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Oaks FC 2 2.75 (+1.32) 1st (2.47) 56 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 50 for their projection
2 Central Coast United Soccer Club 2.57 (+1.14) 3rd (2.22) 52 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 44 for their projection
3 Central Coast Surf Soccer 2.50 (+1.07) 2nd (2.34) 50 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 47 for their projection
4 Unico Futbol Club 1.67 (+0.24) 7th (1.39) 31 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
5 LA Surf SC SFV 1.50 (+0.07) 4th (1.58) A point next game

How the results connect

27 chains · 11 teams

Paths of results that link Valley United Soccer Club to Central Coast United Soccer Club through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

5 favour us
3 even
19 favour them
-2.1 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–2 3–1 2–3 1–2 3–1 1–5 4–2 0–5 3–3 0–5 0–1 2–3 4–2 2–3 3–1 2–3 0–2 2–0 1–3 3–2 4–2 Valley United Socce… 6th Central Coast Surf … 3rd LA Surf SC SFV 5th FC Man United 7th ALBION SC SCV 13th TFA-SGV 12th ALBION SC Antelope … 9th Dynamo 10th Oxnard United Socce… 11th Unico Futbol Club 4th Central Coast Unite… 2nd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 7th 13th Aug 29 Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 10 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.14 · 3rd hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
10:50 AM		 Central Coast United Soccer Club
2nd · 6-0-1 · GD +16		 Home
Valley United Soccer Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
22%		 1–2 0.86 1.36 Upside
Sat Oct 31
11:00 AM		 Central Cal Aztecs 2
8th · 3-1-3 · GD -6		 Away
Kern County Soccer Park		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
50%		 1–1 1.72 1.40 Swing game
Sun Nov 1
10:50 AM		 Unico Futbol Club
4th · 3-1-2 · GD +2		 Home
Birmingham High School		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
47%		 2–1 1.61 1.42 Swing game
Sun Nov 8
12:00 AM		 Oxnard United Soccer Club
11th · 2-0-5 · GD -4		 Home
TBD		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
56%		 2–1 1.87 1.46 Swing game
Sat Nov 14
02:30 PM		 Central Coast Surf Soccer
3rd · 5-0-1 · GD +17		 Away
Talley Fields		 ●●●●● Very tough
12%		 1–3 0.49 1.38 Upside
Sun Nov 15
04:00 PM		 ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2)
9th · 2-1-3 · GD +0		 Away
Lancaster National Soccer Center		 ●●●●○ Tough
41%		 2–2 1.42 1.38 Upside
Sat Mar 13
12:00 AM		 FC Man United
7th · 3-1-3 · GD -1		 Home
TBD		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
48%		 2–1 1.63 1.40 Swing game
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM		 Dynamo
10th · 2-1-4 · GD -6		 Home
TBD		 ●●○○○ Lean win
58%		 2–1 1.95 1.44 Swing game
Sun Mar 21
12:00 AM		 Oaks FC 2
1st · 7-1-0 · GD +23		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
9%		 0–2 0.41 1.37 Upside
Sun Apr 4
12:00 AM		 LA Surf SC SFV
5th · 4-0-4 · GD +8		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●○ Tough
39%		 2–2 1.35 1.37 Upside
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM		 ALBION SC SCV
13th · 0-0-8 · GD -40		 Home
TBD		 ●○○○○ Favorable
92%		 5–1 2.81 1.45 Bank it
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM		 TFA-SGV
12th · 1-3-4 · GD -12		 Away
TBD		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
56%		 2–1 1.85 1.47 Swing game
Sat Apr 24
12:00 AM		 Central Cal Aztecs 2
8th · 3-1-3 · GD -6		 Home
TBD		 ●●○○○ Lean win
59%		 2–1 1.98 1.50 Swing game
Sun Apr 25
02:00 PM		 Central Coast United Soccer Club
2nd · 6-0-1 · GD +16		 Away
CMT Ranch		 ●●●●● Very tough
16%		 1–2 0.62 1.45 Upside
Sun Apr 25
12:00 AM		 Unico Futbol Club
4th · 3-1-2 · GD +2		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●○ Tough
37%		 1–1 1.32 1.45 Upside
Sun May 2
12:00 AM		 Oxnard United Soccer Club
11th · 2-0-5 · GD -4		 Away
TBD		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
45%		 2–2 1.55 1.45 Swing game
Tue May 25
12:00 AM		 Oaks FC 2
1st · 7-1-0 · GD +23		 Home
Valley United Soccer Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
14%		 1–2 0.58 1.42 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Oaks FC 2 8710 274+23 222.75 WWWWW -0.36 -0.01 100% 1.5
2 Central Coast United Soccer Club 7601 237+16 182.57 WLWWW -0.26 -0.02 99% 2.6
3 Central Coast Surf Soccer 6501 214+17 152.50 WWWWL -0.08 -0.13 100% 2.0
4 Unico Futbol Club 6312 1210+2 101.67 DWWLW -0.61 +0.20 14% 6.8
5 LA Surf SC SFV 8404 2315+8 121.50 WWWLL -0.19 +0.06 46% 5.1
6 Valley United Soccer Club 7313 1714+3 101.43 WWLWD -0.43 +0.14 15% 6.5
7 FC Man United 7313 1314-1 101.43 DLLWW +0.33 -0.14 20% 6.2
8 Central Cal Aztecs 2 7313 814-6 101.43 DWLWL +0.08 +0.06 1% 9.3
9 ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2) 6213 1414+0 71.17 DLWLL -0.38 +0.15 4% 8.1
10 Dynamo 7214 915-6 71.00 LLWLW +0.26 +0.00 1% 9.9
11 Oxnard United Soccer Club 7205 1519-4 60.86 LLLLW +0.01 +0.03 1% 9.2
12 TFA-SGV 8134 1325-12 60.75 LLLWD +0.45 -0.09 0% 10.9
13 ALBION SC SCV 8008 848-40 00.00 LLLLL +0.58 +0.12 0% 13.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.13 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.