TableChase Clubs

TFA-SGV

Elite Academy League 2 · LA North U19 · 13 teams · TFA SGV (all teams)

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12th
1-3-4 record · 8 played
0.75 points per game
-12 goal diff · 13–25
LLLWDlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 10.9
+0.45 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 09:00 AM

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TFA-SGV
12th · 0.75 PPG
at
Oxnard United Soccer Club
11th · 0.86 PPG

River Ridge Playfields, Field 1 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 2–3 (expected goals 2.1 for, 3.1 against · 0.95 expected points)

Season so farTFA-SGVOxnard United Soccer Club
Position12th11th
Record (W-D-L)1-3-42-0-5
Points per game0.750.86
Goals for / game1.62.1
Goals against / game3.12.7
Clean sheets10
Held scoreless21
Form (recent first)D W L L LW L L L L
Biggest win4–3 vs ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2)6–3 vs ALBION SC SCV
Worst loss0–5 at Central Coast United Soccer Club1–3 vs Central Coast Surf Soccer
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.90-0.35
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.45+0.01

Common opponents: Dynamo — we 0–0; they 3–1. Central Coast United Soccer Club — we 0–5; they 2–3. Oaks FC 2 — we 1–5; they 0–2. ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2) — we 4–3; they 2–4.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–0 at Dynamo, 0–5 at Central Coast United Soccer Club.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 26%; a draw (17%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 09:00 AM at River Ridge Playfields.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

  • What a win does
    Oxnard United Soccer Club sit 11th on 0.86 PPG; we are on 0.75.

    A point moves us above Oxnard United Soccer Club on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Oxnard United Soccer Club game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (TFA-SGV – Oxnard United Soccer Club) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.67 PPG		 12th— holds 12th— holds 12th— holds
Win
1.00 PPG		 11th▲ up 1 10th▲ up 2 12th— holds
Draw
0.78 PPG		 12th— holds 12th— holds 12th— holds
Loss
0.67 PPG		 12th— holds 12th— holds 12th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–3 loss we stay 12th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
10.9 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th <1%
  6. 6th 1%
  7. 7th 2%
  8. 8th 5%
  9. 9th 8%
  10. 10th 13%
  11. 11th 24%
  12. 12th 46%
  13. 13th <1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 16 remaining known games (max 2.25 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Oaks FC 2 2.75 (+2.00) 1st (2.47) 60 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 54 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Central Coast United Soccer Club 2.57 (+1.82) 3rd (2.22) 56 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 48 for their projection
3 Central Coast Surf Soccer 2.50 (+1.75) 2nd (2.34) 54 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 51 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 Unico Futbol Club 1.67 (+0.92) 7th (1.39) 35 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection
5 LA Surf SC SFV 1.50 (+0.75) 4th (1.58) 30 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection
6 Valley United Soccer Club 1.43 (+0.68) 6th (1.42) 29 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
7 FC Man United 1.43 (+0.68) 5th (1.46) 29 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
8 Central Cal Aztecs 2 1.43 (+0.68) 9th (1.13) 29 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
9 ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2) 1.17 (+0.42) 8th (1.23) 23 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
10 Dynamo 1.00 (+0.25) 11th (1.06) Win next game
11 Oxnard United Soccer Club 0.86 (+0.11) 10th (1.12) A point next game

How the results connect

30 chains · 13 teams

Paths of results that link TFA-SGV to Oxnard United Soccer Club through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

11 favour us
2 even
17 favour them
-0.6 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–5 2–0 0–0 1–3 4–3 4–2 0–5 3–2 3–3 2–0 2–4 1–1 1–2 3–1 2–3 4–2 3–6 2–4 1–2 3–1 1–0 1–1 4–1 TFA-SGV 12th Oaks FC 2 1st Dynamo 10th ALBION SC Antelope … 9th Central Coast Unite… 2nd Valley United Socce… 6th FC Man United 7th LA Surf SC SFV 5th Unico Futbol Club 4th Central Coast Surf … 3rd ALBION SC SCV 13th Central Cal Aztecs 2 8th Oxnard United Socce… 11th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 7th 13th Aug 29 Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 10 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.09 · 11th hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
09:00 AM		 Oxnard United Soccer Club
11th · 2-0-5 · GD -4		 Away
River Ridge Playfields		 ●●●●○ Tough
26%		 2–3 0.95 0.77 Upside
Sun Nov 1
02:30 PM		 Central Cal Aztecs 2
8th · 3-1-3 · GD -6		 Home
Azusa High School · turf		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
42%		 1–1 1.49 0.84 Swing game
Sun Nov 8
02:30 PM		 Central Coast Surf Soccer
3rd · 5-0-1 · GD +17		 Home
Azusa High School · turf		 ●●●●● Very tough
7%		 1–3 0.32 0.80 Upside
Sat Nov 14
09:00 AM		 Dynamo
10th · 2-1-4 · GD -6		 Home
Azusa High School · turf		 ●●●●○ Tough
41%		 2–1 1.42 0.85 Upside
Sun Nov 15
03:50 PM		 Unico Futbol Club
4th · 3-1-2 · GD +2		 Away
Santa Barbara High School · turf?		 ●●●●● Very tough
21%		 1–2 0.80 0.84 Upside
Sun Mar 7
12:00 AM		 Central Coast United Soccer Club
2nd · 6-0-1 · GD +16		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
10%		 1–3 0.43 0.81 Upside
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM		 Oaks FC 2
1st · 7-1-0 · GD +23		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
6%		 0–3 0.26 0.78 Upside
Sun Mar 21
12:00 AM		 ALBION SC SCV
13th · 0-0-8 · GD -40		 Home
TBD		 ●○○○○ Favorable
81%		 4–1 2.53 0.89 Bank it
Sun Apr 4
12:00 AM		 FC Man United
7th · 3-1-3 · GD -1		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
21%		 1–2 0.79 0.88 Upside
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM		 ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2)
9th · 2-1-3 · GD +0		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
22%		 1–3 0.83 0.88 Upside
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM		 Valley United Soccer Club
6th · 3-1-3 · GD +3		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●○ Tough
27%		 1–2 0.98 0.88 Upside
Sun Apr 18
12:00 AM		 Oxnard United Soccer Club
11th · 2-0-5 · GD -4		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●○ Tough
36%		 2–2 1.26 0.90 Upside
Sat Apr 24
12:00 AM		 LA Surf SC SFV
5th · 4-0-4 · GD +8		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
21%		 1–3 0.78 0.90 Upside
Sun Apr 25
11:00 AM		 Central Cal Aztecs 2
8th · 3-1-3 · GD -6		 Away
Kern County Soccer Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
33%		 1–1 1.20 0.91 Upside
Sun May 2
12:00 AM		 Central Coast Surf Soccer
3rd · 5-0-1 · GD +17		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
4%		 0–4 0.20 0.88 Upside
Tue May 25
12:00 AM		 ALBION SC SCV
13th · 0-0-8 · GD -40		 Away
Turf - West Ranch High School · turf		 ●●○○○ Lean win
72%		 3–2 2.28 0.94 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Oaks FC 2 8710 274+23 222.75 WWWWW -0.36 -0.01 100% 1.5
2 Central Coast United Soccer Club 7601 237+16 182.57 WLWWW -0.26 -0.02 100% 2.6
3 Central Coast Surf Soccer 6501 214+17 152.50 WWWWL -0.08 -0.13 100% 2.0
4 Unico Futbol Club 6312 1210+2 101.67 DWWLW -0.61 +0.20 14% 6.7
5 LA Surf SC SFV 8404 2315+8 121.50 WWWLL -0.19 +0.06 44% 5.2
6 Valley United Soccer Club 7313 1714+3 101.43 WWLWD -0.43 +0.14 16% 6.4
7 FC Man United 7313 1314-1 101.43 DLLWW +0.33 -0.14 21% 6.2
8 Central Cal Aztecs 2 7313 814-6 101.43 DWLWL +0.08 +0.06 1% 9.3
9 ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2) 6213 1414+0 71.17 DLWLL -0.38 +0.15 3% 8.2
10 Dynamo 7214 915-6 71.00 LLWLW +0.26 +0.00 1% 9.8
11 Oxnard United Soccer Club 7205 1519-4 60.86 LLLLW +0.01 +0.03 1% 9.2
12 TFA-SGV 8134 1325-12 60.75 LLLWD +0.45 -0.09 0% 10.9
13 ALBION SC SCV 8008 848-40 00.00 LLLLL +0.58 +0.12 0% 13.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.13 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.