TableChase Clubs

LA Surf SC SFV

Elite Academy League 2 · LA North U19 · 13 teams · LA Surf SC SFV (all teams)

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5th
4-0-4 record · 8 played
1.50 points per game
+8 goal diff · 23–15
WWWLLlast 5
44% chance of top 4 · expected finish 5.2
-0.19 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:00 AM

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LA Surf SC SFV
5th · 1.50 PPG
at
Oxnard United Soccer Club
11th · 0.86 PPG

River Ridge Playfields, Field 1 ↗

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.9 for, 2.2 against · 1.78 expected points)

Season so farLA Surf SC SFVOxnard United Soccer Club
Position5th11th
Record (W-D-L)4-0-42-0-5
Points per game1.500.86
Goals for / game2.92.1
Goals against / game1.92.7
Clean sheets20
Held scoreless11
Form (recent first)L L W W WW L L L L
Biggest win12–0 vs ALBION SC SCV6–3 vs ALBION SC SCV
Worst loss0–5 at Oaks FC 21–3 vs Central Coast Surf Soccer
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.60-0.35
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.19+0.01

Common opponents: Central Cal Aztecs 2 — we 1–2; they 1–3. ALBION SC SCV — we 12–0; they 6–3. Oaks FC 2 — we 0–5; they 0–2. Central Coast United Soccer Club — we 1–2; they 2–3. Dynamo — we 1–2; they 3–1.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–5 at Oaks FC 2.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 54% / draw 17% / loss 29%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Away game
    Kickoff 09:00 AM at River Ridge Playfields.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Oxnard United Soccer Club game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (LA Surf SC SFV – Oxnard United Soccer Club) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 1.44 PPG		 5th— holds 6th▼ down 1 8th▼ down 3
Win
1.67 PPG		 4th▲ up 1 4th▲ up 1 5th— holds
Draw
1.44 PPG		 5th— holds 6th▼ down 1 8th▼ down 3
Loss
1.33 PPG		 8th▼ down 3 7th▼ down 2 8th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–2 draw we finish as high as 4th if every rival drops points, and as low as 8th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
44% top 4
57% below the top 4
5.2 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd <1%
  3. 3rd 2%
  4. 4th 41%
  5. 5th 26%
  6. 6th 13%
  7. 7th 9%
  8. 8th 4%
  9. 9th 2%
  10. 10th 1%
  11. 11th <1%
  12. 12th
  13. 13th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 16 remaining known games (max 2.50 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Oaks FC 2 2.75 (+1.25) 1st (2.47) 54 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 48 for their projection
2 Central Coast United Soccer Club 2.57 (+1.07) 3rd (2.22) 50 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 42 for their projection
3 Central Coast Surf Soccer 2.50 (+1.00) 2nd (2.34) 48 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 45 for their projection
4 Unico Futbol Club 1.67 (+0.17) 7th (1.39) 29 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection

How the results connect

32 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link LA Surf SC SFV to Oxnard United Soccer Club through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

16 favour us
5 even
11 favour them
+1.2 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–2 3–2 1–2 3–1 1–2 1–3 0–5 2–0 12–0 3–6 1–2 3–2 4–2 4–2 0–0 1–5 5–0 1–3 3–1 2–0 LA Surf SC SFV 5th Central Coast Unite… 2nd Central Cal Aztecs 2 8th Dynamo 10th Oaks FC 2 1st ALBION SC SCV 13th Valley United Socce… 6th TFA-SGV 12th Central Coast Surf … 3rd Oxnard United Socce… 11th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 7th 13th Aug 29 Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 10 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.06 · 6th hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
09:00 AM		 Oxnard United Soccer Club
11th · 2-0-5 · GD -4		 Away
River Ridge Playfields		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
54%		 2–2 1.78 1.53 Swing game
Sun Oct 25
02:15 PM		 ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2)
9th · 2-1-3 · GD +0		 Away
Lancaster National Soccer Center		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
49%		 2–2 1.65 1.54 Swing game
Sun Nov 8
05:20 PM		 Unico Futbol Club
4th · 3-1-2 · GD +2		 Away
Santa Barbara High School · turf?		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
44%		 2–1 1.53 1.54 Swing game
Sat Nov 14
05:35 PM		 Central Cal Aztecs 2
8th · 3-1-3 · GD -6		 Home
Calabasas HS · turf?		 ●●○○○ Lean win
67%		 2–1 2.17 1.59 Swing game
Sun Nov 15
03:50 PM		 Oxnard United Soccer Club
11th · 2-0-5 · GD -4		 Home
Moorpark HS · turf?		 ●●○○○ Lean win
65%		 3–1 2.09 1.63 Swing game
Sun Mar 7
12:00 AM		 ALBION SC SCV
13th · 0-0-8 · GD -40		 Away
TBD		 ●○○○○ Favorable
91%		 5–1 2.79 1.71 Bank it
Sat Mar 13
12:00 AM		 Oaks FC 2
1st · 7-1-0 · GD +23		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
17%		 1–2 0.70 1.65 Upside
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM		 FC Man United
7th · 3-1-3 · GD -1		 Away
TBD		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
45%		 2–2 1.54 1.64 Swing game
Sat Mar 20
11:30 AM		 Central Coast Surf Soccer
3rd · 5-0-1 · GD +17		 Home
Rancho Conejo Playfields		 ●●●●● Very tough
22%		 1–2 0.84 1.59 Upside
Sun Apr 4
12:00 AM		 Valley United Soccer Club
6th · 3-1-3 · GD +3		 Away
TBD		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
42%		 2–2 1.46 1.59 Swing game
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM		 Central Coast United Soccer Club
2nd · 6-0-1 · GD +16		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●○ Tough
28%		 1–2 1.03 1.56 Upside
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM		 Dynamo
10th · 2-1-4 · GD -6		 Away
TBD		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
56%		 2–1 1.88 1.57 Swing game
Sun Apr 18
12:00 AM		 ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2)
9th · 2-1-3 · GD +0		 Home
TBD		 ●●○○○ Lean win
60%		 3–1 1.97 1.59 Swing game
Sat Apr 24
12:00 AM		 TFA-SGV
12th · 1-3-4 · GD -12		 Away
TBD		 ●●○○○ Lean win
64%		 3–1 2.07 1.61 Swing game
Sun Apr 25
12:00 AM		 Central Coast Surf Soccer
3rd · 5-0-1 · GD +17		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
15%		 1–2 0.60 1.57 Upside
Sun May 2
12:00 AM		 Unico Futbol Club
4th · 3-1-2 · GD +2		 Home
TBD		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
54%		 2–1 1.82 1.58 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Oaks FC 2 8710 274+23 222.75 WWWWW -0.36 -0.01 100% 1.5
2 Central Coast United Soccer Club 7601 237+16 182.57 WLWWW -0.26 -0.02 100% 2.6
3 Central Coast Surf Soccer 6501 214+17 152.50 WWWWL -0.08 -0.13 100% 2.0
4 Unico Futbol Club 6312 1210+2 101.67 DWWLW -0.61 +0.20 14% 6.7
5 LA Surf SC SFV 8404 2315+8 121.50 WWWLL -0.19 +0.06 44% 5.2
6 Valley United Soccer Club 7313 1714+3 101.43 WWLWD -0.43 +0.14 16% 6.4
7 FC Man United 7313 1314-1 101.43 DLLWW +0.33 -0.14 21% 6.2
8 Central Cal Aztecs 2 7313 814-6 101.43 DWLWL +0.08 +0.06 1% 9.3
9 ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2) 6213 1414+0 71.17 DLWLL -0.38 +0.15 3% 8.2
10 Dynamo 7214 915-6 71.00 LLWLW +0.26 +0.00 1% 9.8
11 Oxnard United Soccer Club 7205 1519-4 60.86 LLLLW +0.01 +0.03 1% 9.2
12 TFA-SGV 8134 1325-12 60.75 LLLWD +0.45 -0.09 0% 10.9
13 ALBION SC SCV 8008 848-40 00.00 LLLLL +0.58 +0.12 0% 13.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.13 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.