TableChase Clubs

Central Coast United Soccer Club

Elite Academy League 2 · LA North U19 · 13 teams · Central Coast United Soccer Club (all teams)

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2nd
6-0-1 record · 7 played
2.57 points per game
+16 goal diff · 23–7
WLWWWlast 5
99% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.6
-0.26 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 10:50 AM

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Central Coast United Soccer Club
2nd · 2.57 PPG
at

Valley United Soccer Complex, Olivar ↗

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.5 for, 1.5 against · 1.96 expected points)

Season so farCentral Coast United Soccer ClubValley United Soccer Club
Position2nd6th
Record (W-D-L)6-0-13-1-3
Points per game2.571.43
Goals for / game3.32.4
Goals against / game1.02.0
Clean sheets31
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)W W W L WD W L W W
Biggest win5–0 at ALBION SC SCV3–1 at FC Man United
Worst loss1–3 at Central Coast Surf Soccer1–2 vs Central Coast Surf Soccer
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.42+0.19
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.26-0.43

Common opponents: ALBION SC SCV — we 5–0; they 4–2. FC Man United — we 5–1; they 3–1. TFA-SGV — we 5–0; they 3–3. Central Coast Surf Soccer — we 1–3; they 1–2. LA Surf SC SFV — we 2–1; they 2–3.

Game plan

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 59% / draw 19% / loss 22%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Away game
    Kickoff 10:50 AM at Valley United Soccer Complex.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Valley United Soccer Club game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Central Coast United Soccer Club – Valley United Soccer Club) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.63 PPG
2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Win
2.63 PPG
2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Draw
2.38 PPG
3rd▼ down 1 3rd▼ down 1 3rd▼ down 1
Loss
2.25 PPG
3rd▼ down 1 3rd▼ down 1 3rd▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–1 win we stay 2nd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

11% finish 1st
99% top 4
1% below the top 4
2.6 average finish
  1. 1st 11%
  2. 2nd 27%
  3. 3rd 60%
  4. 4th 2%
  5. 5th 1%
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 17 remaining known games (max 2.88 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Oaks FC 2 2.75 (+0.18) 1st (2.47) 48 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 42 for their projection

How the results connect

27 chains · 11 teams

Paths of results that link Central Coast United Soccer Club to Valley United Soccer Club through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

19 favour us
3 even
5 favour them
+2.1 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–3 2–1 2–1 3–2 5–1 1–3 5–0 2–4 5–0 3–3 1–0 3–2 1–3 2–4 3–2 3–1 0–2 2–0 2–3 3–2 2–4 Central Coast Unite… 2nd Central Coast Surf … 3rd LA Surf SC SFV 5th FC Man United 7th ALBION SC SCV 13th TFA-SGV 12th Oxnard United Socce… 11th Unico Futbol Club 4th ALBION SC Antelope … 9th Dynamo 10th Valley United Socce… 6th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 7th 13th Aug 29 Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 10 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.02 · 10th hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
10:50 AM
Valley United Soccer Club
6th · 3-1-3 · GD +3
Away
Valley United Soccer Complex
●●○○○ Lean win
59%
2–1 1.96 2.49 Swing game
Sat Oct 31
06:30 PM
Dynamo
10th · 2-1-4 · GD -6
Away
Van Nuys / Sherman Oaks Rec Center
●●○○○ Lean win
70%
2–1 2.26 2.47 Swing game
Sun Nov 8
02:00 PM
Oaks FC 2
1st · 7-1-0 · GD +23
Home
CMT Ranch
●●●●○ Tough
30%
1–1 1.14 2.34 Upside
Sat Nov 14
02:00 PM
ALBION SC SCV
13th · 0-0-8 · GD -40
Home
CMT Ranch
●○○○○ Favorable
98%
6–0 2.95 2.39 Bank it
Sun Nov 15
05:10 PM
FC Man United
7th · 3-1-3 · GD -1
Away
Citrus College · turf?
●●○○○ Lean win
61%
2–1 2.01 2.36 Swing game
Sun Mar 7
12:00 AM
TFA-SGV
12th · 1-3-4 · GD -12
Away
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
78%
3–1 2.45 2.37 Bank it
Sat Mar 13
02:00 PM
Central Coast Surf Soccer
3rd · 5-0-1 · GD +17
Home
CMT Ranch
●●●●○ Tough
37%
1–1 1.32 2.29 Upside
Sun Mar 14
02:00 PM
Unico Futbol Club
4th · 3-1-2 · GD +2
Home
CMT Ranch
●●○○○ Lean win
69%
2–1 2.23 2.29 Swing game
Sat Mar 20
04:00 PM
ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2)
9th · 2-1-3 · GD +0
Away
Lancaster National Soccer Center
●●○○○ Lean win
66%
2–1 2.13 2.28 Swing game
Sun Mar 21
02:00 PM
Central Cal Aztecs 2
8th · 3-1-3 · GD -6
Home
CMT Ranch
●○○○○ Favorable
78%
2–0 2.47 2.29 Bank it
Sun Apr 4
12:00 AM
Oxnard United Soccer Club
11th · 2-0-5 · GD -4
Away
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
70%
3–1 2.24 2.29 Swing game
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM
LA Surf SC SFV
5th · 4-0-4 · GD +8
Away
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
53%
2–1 1.78 2.26 Swing game
Sun Apr 11
02:00 PM
ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2)
9th · 2-1-3 · GD +0
Home
CMT Ranch
●○○○○ Favorable
75%
3–1 2.38 2.27 Bank it
Sat Apr 24
02:00 PM
Dynamo
10th · 2-1-4 · GD -6
Home
CMT Ranch
●○○○○ Favorable
78%
2–0 2.46 2.28 Bank it
Sun Apr 25
02:00 PM
Valley United Soccer Club
6th · 3-1-3 · GD +3
Home
CMT Ranch
●●○○○ Lean win
69%
2–1 2.22 2.27 Swing game
Sun May 2
12:00 AM
Oaks FC 2
1st · 7-1-0 · GD +23
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
23%
1–1 0.90 2.21 Upside
Tue May 25
12:00 AM
Central Cal Aztecs 2
8th · 3-1-3 · GD -6
Away
Kern County Soccer Park
●●○○○ Lean win
70%
2–0 2.27 2.22 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Oaks FC 2 8710 274+23 222.75 WWWWW -0.36 -0.01 100% 1.5
2 Central Coast United Soccer Club 7601 237+16 182.57 WLWWW -0.26 -0.02 99% 2.6
3 Central Coast Surf Soccer 6501 214+17 152.50 WWWWL -0.08 -0.13 100% 2.0
4 Unico Futbol Club 6312 1210+2 101.67 DWWLW -0.61 +0.20 14% 6.8
5 LA Surf SC SFV 8404 2315+8 121.50 WWWLL -0.19 +0.06 46% 5.1
6 Valley United Soccer Club 7313 1714+3 101.43 WWLWD -0.43 +0.14 15% 6.5
7 FC Man United 7313 1314-1 101.43 DLLWW +0.33 -0.14 20% 6.2
8 Central Cal Aztecs 2 7313 814-6 101.43 DWLWL +0.08 +0.06 1% 9.3
9 ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2) 6213 1414+0 71.17 DLWLL -0.38 +0.15 4% 8.1
10 Dynamo 7214 915-6 71.00 LLWLW +0.26 +0.00 1% 9.9
11 Oxnard United Soccer Club 7205 1519-4 60.86 LLLLW +0.01 +0.03 1% 9.2
12 TFA-SGV 8134 1325-12 60.75 LLLWD +0.45 -0.09 0% 10.9
13 ALBION SC SCV 8008 848-40 00.00 LLLLL +0.58 +0.12 0% 13.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.13 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.