TableChase Clubs

Oaks FC 2

Elite Academy League 2 · LA North U19 · 13 teams · Oaks FC (all teams)

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1st
7-1-0 record · 8 played
2.75 points per game
+23 goal diff · 27–4
WWWWWlast 5
100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.5
-0.36 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 31, 09:00 AM

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Oaks FC 2
1st · 2.75 PPG
vs
Unico Futbol Club
4th · 1.67 PPG

River Ridge, Field 1 ↗

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 2–0 (expected goals 2.7 for, 0.8 against · 2.45 expected points)

Season so farOaks FC 2Unico Futbol Club
Position1st4th
Record (W-D-L)7-1-03-1-2
Points per game2.751.67
Goals for / game3.42.0
Goals against / game0.51.7
Clean sheets40
Held scoreless01
Form (recent first)W W W W WW L W W D
Biggest win6–1 at ALBION SC SCV4–1 vs Dynamo
Worst loss—0–2 vs Central Coast United Soccer Club
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.91+0.05
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.36-0.61

Common opponents: ALBION SC SCV — we 6–1; they 3–2. FC Man United — we 1–1; they 2–3. TFA-SGV — we 5–1; they 1–1. Dynamo — we 2–1; they 4–1.

Game plan

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 77% chance; likely score 2–0.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Unico Futbol Club game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Oaks FC 2 – Unico Futbol Club) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.78 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Win
2.78 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Draw
2.56 PPG
2nd▼ down 1 3rd▼ down 2 3rd▼ down 2
Loss
2.44 PPG
3rd▼ down 2 3rd▼ down 2 3rd▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–0 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

62% finish 1st
100% top 4
0% below the top 4
1.5 average finish
  1. 1st 62%
  2. 2nd 27%
  3. 3rd 11%
  4. 4th <1%
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

27 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link Oaks FC 2 to Unico Futbol Club through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

24 favour us
3 favour them
+3.4 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–1 3–2 2–1 1–4 5–1 1–1 6–1 2–3 0–0 4–3 1–2 0–5 2–0 2–0 3–1 2–4 5–0 1–2 1–5 Oaks FC 2 1st FC Man United 7th Dynamo 10th TFA-SGV 12th ALBION SC SCV 13th Oxnard United Socce… 11th LA Surf SC SFV 5th ALBION SC Antelope … 9th Central Coast Unite… 2nd Unico Futbol Club 4th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 7th 13th Aug 29 Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 10 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.01 · 9th hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 31
09:00 AM
Unico Futbol Club
4th · 3-1-2 · GD +2
Home
River Ridge
●○○○○ Favorable
77%
2–0 2.45 2.72 Bank it
Sun Nov 1
09:00 AM
ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2)
9th · 2-1-3 · GD +0
Home
River Ridge
●○○○○ Favorable
83%
3–0 2.59 2.70 Bank it
Sun Nov 8
02:00 PM
Central Coast United Soccer Club
2nd · 6-0-1 · GD +16
Away
CMT Ranch
●●●○○ Toss-up
46%
1–1 1.62 2.61 Swing game
Sat Nov 14
09:00 AM
Oxnard United Soccer Club
11th · 2-0-5 · GD -4
Away
River Ridge Playfields
●○○○○ Favorable
79%
3–1 2.49 2.60 Bank it
Sun Nov 15
11:00 AM
ALBION SC SCV
13th · 0-0-8 · GD -40
Home
River Ridge
●○○○○ Favorable
99%
6–0 2.98 2.63 Bank it
Sun Mar 7
12:00 AM
FC Man United
7th · 3-1-3 · GD -1
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
79%
2–0 2.49 2.62 Bank it
Sat Mar 13
12:00 AM
LA Surf SC SFV
5th · 4-0-4 · GD +8
Away
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
65%
2–1 2.12 2.58 Swing game
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM
TFA-SGV
12th · 1-3-4 · GD -12
Away
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
85%
3–0 2.64 2.59 Bank it
Sun Mar 21
12:00 AM
Valley United Soccer Club
6th · 3-1-3 · GD +3
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
78%
2–0 2.46 2.58 Bank it
Sun Apr 4
11:00 AM
Central Cal Aztecs 2
8th · 3-1-3 · GD -6
Away
Kern County Soccer Park
●○○○○ Favorable
78%
2–0 2.47 2.57 Bank it
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM
Dynamo
10th · 2-1-4 · GD -6
Away
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
78%
2–0 2.47 2.57 Bank it
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM
Central Coast Surf Soccer
3rd · 5-0-1 · GD +17
Home
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
48%
1–1 1.68 2.52 Swing game
Sat Apr 24
12:00 AM
Unico Futbol Club
4th · 3-1-2 · GD +2
Away
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
69%
2–0 2.26 2.51 Swing game
Sun Apr 25
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2)
9th · 2-1-3 · GD +0
Away
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
76%
3–1 2.41 2.51 Bank it
Sun May 2
12:00 AM
Central Coast United Soccer Club
2nd · 6-0-1 · GD +16
Home
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
55%
1–1 1.88 2.48 Swing game
Tue May 25
12:00 AM
Valley United Soccer Club
6th · 3-1-3 · GD +3
Away
Valley United Soccer Complex
●●○○○ Lean win
70%
2–1 2.26 2.47 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Oaks FC 2 8710 274+23 222.75 WWWWW -0.36 -0.01 100% 1.5
2 Central Coast United Soccer Club 7601 237+16 182.57 WLWWW -0.26 -0.02 100% 2.6
3 Central Coast Surf Soccer 6501 214+17 152.50 WWWWL -0.08 -0.13 100% 2.0
4 Unico Futbol Club 6312 1210+2 101.67 DWWLW -0.61 +0.20 13% 6.8
5 LA Surf SC SFV 8404 2315+8 121.50 WWWLL -0.19 +0.06 45% 5.1
6 Valley United Soccer Club 7313 1714+3 101.43 WWLWD -0.43 +0.14 16% 6.5
7 FC Man United 7313 1314-1 101.43 DLLWW +0.33 -0.14 20% 6.2
8 Central Cal Aztecs 2 7313 814-6 101.43 DWLWL +0.08 +0.06 1% 9.3
9 ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2) 6213 1414+0 71.17 DLWLL -0.38 +0.15 3% 8.2
10 Dynamo 7214 915-6 71.00 LLWLW +0.26 +0.00 0% 9.9
11 Oxnard United Soccer Club 7205 1519-4 60.86 LLLLW +0.01 +0.03 1% 9.2
12 TFA-SGV 8134 1325-12 60.75 LLLWD +0.45 -0.09 0% 10.8
13 ALBION SC SCV 8008 848-40 00.00 LLLLL +0.58 +0.12 0% 13.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.13 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.