TableChase Clubs

Central Coast Surf Soccer

Elite Academy League 2 · LA North U19 · 13 teams · Central Coast Surf Soccer (all teams)

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3rd
5-0-1 record · 6 played
2.50 points per game
+17 goal diff · 21–4
WWWWLlast 5
100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.0
-0.08 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 12:00 PM

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Central Coast Surf Soccer
3rd · 2.50 PPG
vs
Dynamo
10th · 1.00 PPG

Talley Fields, Field #1 ↗

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 3–0 (expected goals 3.1 for, 0.8 against · 2.57 expected points)

Season so farCentral Coast Surf SoccerDynamo
Position3rd10th
Record (W-D-L)5-0-12-1-4
Points per game2.501.00
Goals for / game3.51.3
Goals against / game0.72.1
Clean sheets21
Held scoreless12
Form (recent first)L W W W WW L W L L
Biggest win9–0 vs ALBION SC SCV4–3 vs ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2)
Worst loss0–1 vs Oaks FC 21–4 at Unico Futbol Club
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.75-0.53
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.08+0.26

Common opponents: Valley United Soccer Club — we 2–1; they 0–2. Oxnard United Soccer Club — we 3–1; they 1–3. Oaks FC 2 — we 0–1; they 1–2.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–1 vs Oaks FC 2.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 82% chance; likely score 3–0.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • What a win does
    Central Coast United Soccer Club sit 2nd on 2.57 PPG; we are on 2.50.

    A point moves us above Central Coast United Soccer Club on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Dynamo game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Central Coast Surf Soccer – Dynamo) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.57 PPG		 2nd▲ up 1 3rd— holds 3rd— holds
Win
2.57 PPG		 2nd▲ up 1 3rd— holds 3rd— holds
Draw
2.29 PPG		 3rd— holds 3rd— holds 3rd— holds
Loss
2.14 PPG		 3rd— holds 3rd— holds 3rd— holds

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–0 win we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 3rd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

28% finish 1st
100% top 4
0% below the top 4
2.0 average finish
  1. 1st 28%
  2. 2nd 46%
  3. 3rd 25%
  4. 4th 1%
  5. 5th <1%
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 18 remaining known games (max 2.88 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Oaks FC 2 2.75 (+0.25) 1st (2.47) 51 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 45 for their projection
2 Central Coast United Soccer Club 2.57 (+0.07) 3rd (2.22) A point next game

How the results connect

24 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link Central Coast Surf Soccer to Dynamo through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

18 favour us
2 even
4 favour them
+3.3 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–1 2–1 2–1 2–0 3–1 3–1 4–0 0–5 0–2 2–4 3–4 2–3 2–3 1–2 3–3 0–0 3–1 2–1 5–0 Central Coast Surf … 3rd Oaks FC 2 1st Valley United Socce… 6th Oxnard United Socce… 11th Central Cal Aztecs 2 8th Central Coast Unite… 2nd ALBION SC Antelope … 9th LA Surf SC SFV 5th TFA-SGV 12th Dynamo 10th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 7th 13th Aug 29 Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 10 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.13 · 12th hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
12:00 PM		 Dynamo
10th · 2-1-4 · GD -6		 Home
Talley Fields		 ●○○○○ Favorable
82%		 3–0 2.57 2.51 Bank it
Sat Oct 31
09:30 AM		 FC Man United
7th · 3-1-3 · GD -1		 Home
Talley Fields		 ●○○○○ Favorable
76%		 2–1 2.40 2.50 Bank it
Sat Nov 7
05:20 PM		 Unico Futbol Club
4th · 3-1-2 · GD +2		 Away
Elings Park		 ●●○○○ Lean win
66%		 2–1 2.15 2.46 Swing game
Sun Nov 8
02:30 PM		 TFA-SGV
12th · 1-3-4 · GD -12		 Away
Azusa High School · turf		 ●○○○○ Favorable
83%		 3–1 2.58 2.47 Bank it
Sat Nov 14
02:30 PM		 Valley United Soccer Club
6th · 3-1-3 · GD +3		 Home
Talley Fields		 ●●○○○ Lean win
74%		 3–1 2.37 2.46 Bank it
Sun Nov 15
11:00 AM		 Central Cal Aztecs 2
8th · 3-1-3 · GD -6		 Away
Kern County Soccer Park		 ●○○○○ Favorable
75%		 2–0 2.40 2.46 Bank it
Sun Mar 7
12:00 AM		 Oxnard United Soccer Club
11th · 2-0-5 · GD -4		 Home
TBD		 ●○○○○ Favorable
83%		 3–1 2.59 2.47 Bank it
Sat Mar 13
02:00 PM		 Central Coast United Soccer Club
2nd · 6-0-1 · GD +16		 Away
CMT Ranch		 ●●●●○ Tough
41%		 1–1 1.45 2.40 Upside
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM		 ALBION SC SCV
13th · 0-0-8 · GD -40		 Away
TBD		 ●○○○○ Favorable
97%		 6–0 2.94 2.43 Bank it
Sat Mar 20
11:30 AM		 LA Surf SC SFV
5th · 4-0-4 · GD +8		 Away
Rancho Conejo Playfields		 ●●○○○ Lean win
60%		 2–1 1.98 2.40 Swing game
Sun Mar 21
12:00 AM		 ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2)
9th · 2-1-3 · GD +0		 Away
TBD		 ●●○○○ Lean win
72%		 3–1 2.30 2.40 Bank it
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM		 Unico Futbol Club
4th · 3-1-2 · GD +2		 Home
TBD		 ●●○○○ Lean win
74%		 2–1 2.37 2.40 Bank it
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM		 Oaks FC 2
1st · 7-1-0 · GD +23		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●○ Tough
28%		 1–1 1.08 2.33 Upside
Sat Apr 17
09:30 AM		 ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2)
9th · 2-1-3 · GD +0		 Home
Talley Fields		 ●○○○○ Favorable
80%		 3–1 2.52 2.34 Bank it
Sun Apr 18
12:00 AM		 Dynamo
10th · 2-1-4 · GD -6		 Away
TBD		 ●○○○○ Favorable
75%		 2–0 2.40 2.34 Bank it
Sat Apr 24
12:00 AM		 FC Man United
7th · 3-1-3 · GD -1		 Away
TBD		 ●●○○○ Lean win
67%		 2–1 2.18 2.33 Swing game
Sun Apr 25
12:00 AM		 LA Surf SC SFV
5th · 4-0-4 · GD +8		 Home
TBD		 ●●○○○ Lean win
70%		 2–1 2.24 2.33 Swing game
Sun May 2
12:00 AM		 TFA-SGV
12th · 1-3-4 · GD -12		 Home
TBD		 ●○○○○ Favorable
89%		 4–0 2.73 2.34 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Oaks FC 2 8710 274+23 222.75 WWWWW -0.36 -0.01 100% 1.5
2 Central Coast United Soccer Club 7601 237+16 182.57 WLWWW -0.26 -0.02 99% 2.6
3 Central Coast Surf Soccer 6501 214+17 152.50 WWWWL -0.08 -0.13 100% 2.0
4 Unico Futbol Club 6312 1210+2 101.67 DWWLW -0.61 +0.20 13% 6.7
5 LA Surf SC SFV 8404 2315+8 121.50 WWWLL -0.19 +0.06 44% 5.2
6 Valley United Soccer Club 7313 1714+3 101.43 WWLWD -0.43 +0.14 15% 6.5
7 FC Man United 7313 1314-1 101.43 DLLWW +0.33 -0.14 20% 6.2
8 Central Cal Aztecs 2 7313 814-6 101.43 DWLWL +0.08 +0.06 1% 9.3
9 ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2) 6213 1414+0 71.17 DLWLL -0.38 +0.15 4% 8.2
10 Dynamo 7214 915-6 71.00 LLWLW +0.26 +0.00 1% 9.8
11 Oxnard United Soccer Club 7205 1519-4 60.86 LLLLW +0.01 +0.03 2% 9.3
12 TFA-SGV 8134 1325-12 60.75 LLLWD +0.45 -0.09 0% 10.8
13 ALBION SC SCV 8008 848-40 00.00 LLLLL +0.58 +0.12 0% 13.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.13 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.