TableChase Clubs

Central Cal Aztecs 2

Elite Academy League 2 · LA North U19 · 13 teams · Central Cal Aztecs (all teams)

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8th
3-1-3 record · 7 played
1.43 points per game
-6 goal diff · 8–14
DWLWLlast 5
1% chance of top 4 · expected finish 9.3
+0.08 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 11:00 AM

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Central Cal Aztecs 2
8th · 1.43 PPG
vs
Unico Futbol Club
4th · 1.67 PPG

Kern County Soccer Park, 7 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.3 for, 1.7 against · 1.14 expected points)

Season so farCentral Cal Aztecs 2Unico Futbol Club
Position8th4th
Record (W-D-L)3-1-33-1-2
Points per game1.431.67
Goals for / game1.12.0
Goals against / game2.01.7
Clean sheets20
Held scoreless41
Form (recent first)L W L W DW L W W D
Biggest win3–0 vs ALBION SC SCV4–1 vs Dynamo
Worst loss0–5 at Oaks FC 20–2 vs Central Coast United Soccer Club
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.59+0.05
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.08-0.61

Common opponents: ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2) — we 0–0; they 2–1. ALBION SC SCV — we 3–0; they 3–2. FC Man United — we 0–3; they 2–3.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 4 time(s): 0–4 at Central Coast Surf Soccer, 0–0 vs ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2), 0–5 at Oaks FC 2, 0–3 at FC Man United.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 30%; a draw (24%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • What a win does
    FC Man United sit 7th on 1.43 PPG; we are on 1.43.

    A point moves us above FC Man United on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Unico Futbol Club game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Central Cal Aztecs 2 – Unico Futbol Club) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 1.38 PPG		 8th— holds 7th▲ up 1 9th▼ down 1
Win
1.63 PPG		 4th▲ up 4 5th▲ up 3 7th▲ up 1
Draw
1.38 PPG		 8th— holds 7th▲ up 1 9th▼ down 1
Loss
1.25 PPG		 8th— holds 8th— holds 11th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 5th if every rival drops points, and as low as 9th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
1% top 4
99% below the top 4
9.3 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd <1%
  4. 4th 1%
  5. 5th 3%
  6. 6th 6%
  7. 7th 9%
  8. 8th 15%
  9. 9th 17%
  10. 10th 19%
  11. 11th 18%
  12. 12th 13%
  13. 13th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 17 remaining known games (max 2.54 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Oaks FC 2 2.75 (+1.32) 1st (2.47) 56 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 50 for their projection
2 Central Coast United Soccer Club 2.57 (+1.14) 3rd (2.22) 52 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 44 for their projection
3 Central Coast Surf Soccer 2.50 (+1.07) 2nd (2.34) 50 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 47 for their projection
4 Unico Futbol Club 1.67 (+0.24) 7th (1.39) 31 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
5 LA Surf SC SFV 1.50 (+0.07) 4th (1.58) A point next game
6 Valley United Soccer Club 1.43 (+0.00) 6th (1.42) A point next game
7 FC Man United 1.43 (+0.00) 5th (1.46) A point next game

How the results connect

23 chains · 12 teams

Paths of results that link Central Cal Aztecs 2 to Unico Futbol Club through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

9 favour us
2 even
12 favour them
+0.1 goals per chain on average. The results call it close.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–0 1–2 0–3 3–2 3–0 2–3 0–5 2–0 0–4 3–1 4–2 1–1 3–1 3–1 1–4 2–4 0–5 6–1 5–1 3–4 2–1 1–2 Central Cal Aztecs 2 8th ALBION SC Antelope … 9th FC Man United 7th ALBION SC SCV 13th Central Coast Surf … 3rd Oxnard United Socce… 11th Oaks FC 2 1st LA Surf SC SFV 5th Central Coast Unite… 2nd TFA-SGV 12th Dynamo 10th Unico Futbol Club 4th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 7th 13th Aug 29 Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 10 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.06 · 5th hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
11:00 AM		 Unico Futbol Club
4th · 3-1-2 · GD +2		 Home
Kern County Soccer Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
30%		 1–1 1.14 1.39 Upside
Sat Oct 31
11:00 AM		 Valley United Soccer Club
6th · 3-1-3 · GD +3		 Home
Kern County Soccer Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
28%		 1–1 1.07 1.36 Upside
Sun Nov 1
02:30 PM		 TFA-SGV
12th · 1-3-4 · GD -12		 Away
Azusa High School · turf		 ●●●●○ Tough
36%		 1–1 1.30 1.35 Upside
Sat Nov 7
06:30 PM		 Dynamo
10th · 2-1-4 · GD -6		 Away
Van Nuys / Sherman Oaks Rec Center		 ●●●●○ Tough
32%		 1–1 1.20 1.34 Upside
Sat Nov 14
05:35 PM		 LA Surf SC SFV
5th · 4-0-4 · GD +8		 Away
Calabasas HS · turf?		 ●●●●● Very tough
16%		 1–2 0.66 1.28 Upside
Sun Nov 15
11:00 AM		 Central Coast Surf Soccer
3rd · 5-0-1 · GD +17		 Home
Kern County Soccer Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
10%		 0–2 0.45 1.22 Upside
Sun Mar 7
12:00 AM		 ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2)
9th · 2-1-3 · GD +0		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
25%		 1–2 0.94 1.20 Upside
Sat Mar 13
12:00 AM		 ALBION SC SCV
13th · 0-0-8 · GD -40		 Away
TBD		 ●●○○○ Lean win
68%		 2–1 2.20 1.26 Swing game
Sun Mar 21
02:00 PM		 Central Coast United Soccer Club
2nd · 6-0-1 · GD +16		 Away
CMT Ranch		 ●●●●● Very tough
9%		 0–2 0.40 1.21 Upside
Sun Apr 4
11:00 AM		 Oaks FC 2
1st · 7-1-0 · GD +23		 Home
Kern County Soccer Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
8%		 0–2 0.38 1.16 Upside
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM		 Oxnard United Soccer Club
11th · 2-0-5 · GD -4		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●○ Tough
28%		 1–2 1.04 1.15 Upside
Sun Apr 11
11:00 AM		 FC Man United
7th · 3-1-3 · GD -1		 Home
Kern County Soccer Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
30%		 1–1 1.14 1.15 Upside
Sun Apr 18
12:00 AM		 Unico Futbol Club
4th · 3-1-2 · GD +2		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
23%		 1–1 0.91 1.14 Upside
Sat Apr 24
12:00 AM		 Valley United Soccer Club
6th · 3-1-3 · GD +3		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
21%		 1–2 0.82 1.13 Upside
Sun Apr 25
11:00 AM		 TFA-SGV
12th · 1-3-4 · GD -12		 Home
Kern County Soccer Park		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
46%		 1–1 1.58 1.15 Swing game
Sun May 2
11:00 AM		 Dynamo
10th · 2-1-4 · GD -6		 Home
Kern County Soccer Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
40%		 1–1 1.44 1.16 Upside
Tue May 25
12:00 AM		 Central Coast United Soccer Club
2nd · 6-0-1 · GD +16		 Home
Kern County Soccer Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
13%		 0–2 0.56 1.13 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Oaks FC 2 8710 274+23 222.75 WWWWW -0.36 -0.01 100% 1.5
2 Central Coast United Soccer Club 7601 237+16 182.57 WLWWW -0.26 -0.02 99% 2.6
3 Central Coast Surf Soccer 6501 214+17 152.50 WWWWL -0.08 -0.13 100% 2.0
4 Unico Futbol Club 6312 1210+2 101.67 DWWLW -0.61 +0.20 13% 6.7
5 LA Surf SC SFV 8404 2315+8 121.50 WWWLL -0.19 +0.06 44% 5.2
6 Valley United Soccer Club 7313 1714+3 101.43 WWLWD -0.43 +0.14 15% 6.5
7 FC Man United 7313 1314-1 101.43 DLLWW +0.33 -0.14 20% 6.2
8 Central Cal Aztecs 2 7313 814-6 101.43 DWLWL +0.08 +0.06 1% 9.3
9 ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2) 6213 1414+0 71.17 DLWLL -0.38 +0.15 4% 8.2
10 Dynamo 7214 915-6 71.00 LLWLW +0.26 +0.00 1% 9.8
11 Oxnard United Soccer Club 7205 1519-4 60.86 LLLLW +0.01 +0.03 2% 9.3
12 TFA-SGV 8134 1325-12 60.75 LLLWD +0.45 -0.09 0% 10.8
13 ALBION SC SCV 8008 848-40 00.00 LLLLL +0.58 +0.12 0% 13.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.13 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.