TableChase Clubs

Oxnard United Soccer Club

Elite Academy League 2 · LA North U19 · 13 teams · Oxnard United Soccer Club (all teams)

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11th
2-0-5 record · 7 played
0.86 points per game
-4 goal diff · 15–19
LLLLWlast 5
2% chance of top 4 · expected finish 9.1
+0.01 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:00 AM

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Oxnard United Soccer Club
11th · 0.86 PPG
vs
LA Surf SC SFV
5th · 1.50 PPG

River Ridge Playfields, Field 1 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.2 for, 2.9 against · 1.04 expected points)

Season so farOxnard United Soccer ClubLA Surf SC SFV
Position11th5th
Record (W-D-L)2-0-54-0-4
Points per game0.861.50
Goals for / game2.12.9
Goals against / game2.71.9
Clean sheets02
Held scoreless11
Form (recent first)W L L L LL L W W W
Biggest win6–3 vs ALBION SC SCV12–0 vs ALBION SC SCV
Worst loss1–3 vs Central Coast Surf Soccer0–5 at Oaks FC 2
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.35+0.60
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.01-0.19

Common opponents: Dynamo — we 3–1; they 1–2. Oaks FC 2 — we 0–2; they 0–5. Central Coast United Soccer Club — we 2–3; they 1–2. Central Cal Aztecs 2 — we 1–3; they 1–2. ALBION SC SCV — we 6–3; they 12–0.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–2 at Oaks FC 2.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 29%; a draw (17%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

  • What a win does
    Dynamo sit 10th on 1.00 PPG; we are on 0.86.

    A point moves us above Dynamo on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the LA Surf SC SFV game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Oxnard United Soccer Club – LA Surf SC SFV) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 0.88 PPG		 11th— holds 10th▲ up 1 11th— holds
Win
1.13 PPG		 10th▲ up 1 10th▲ up 1 11th— holds
Draw
0.88 PPG		 11th— holds 10th▲ up 1 11th— holds
Loss
0.75 PPG		 11th— holds 11th— holds 11th— holds

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–2 draw we finish as high as 10th if every rival drops points, and as low as 11th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
2% top 4
98% below the top 4
9.1 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th 2%
  5. 5th 4%
  6. 6th 7%
  7. 7th 9%
  8. 8th 14%
  9. 9th 17%
  10. 10th 18%
  11. 11th 17%
  12. 12th 12%
  13. 13th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 17 remaining known games (max 2.38 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Oaks FC 2 2.75 (+1.89) 1st (2.47) 60 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 54 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Central Coast United Soccer Club 2.57 (+1.71) 3rd (2.22) 56 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 48 for their projection
3 Central Coast Surf Soccer 2.50 (+1.64) 2nd (2.34) 54 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 51 for their projection
4 Unico Futbol Club 1.67 (+0.81) 7th (1.39) 35 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection
5 LA Surf SC SFV 1.50 (+0.64) 4th (1.58) 30 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection
6 Valley United Soccer Club 1.43 (+0.57) 6th (1.42) 29 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
7 FC Man United 1.43 (+0.57) 5th (1.46) 29 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
8 Central Cal Aztecs 2 1.43 (+0.57) 9th (1.13) 29 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
9 ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2) 1.17 (+0.31) 8th (1.23) 23 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
10 Dynamo 1.00 (+0.14) 11th (1.06) A point next game

How the results connect

32 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link Oxnard United Soccer Club to LA Surf SC SFV through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

11 favour us
5 even
16 favour them
-1.2 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–3 2–1 1–3 2–1 0–2 5–0 3–1 2–1 6–3 0–12 2–4 2–3 5–1 2–4 2–1 0–0 0–5 0–3 2–4 0–0 Oxnard United Socce… 11th Central Coast Unite… 2nd Central Cal Aztecs 2 8th Oaks FC 2 1st Dynamo 10th ALBION SC SCV 13th ALBION SC Antelope … 9th Valley United Socce… 6th TFA-SGV 12th LA Surf SC SFV 5th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 7th 13th Aug 29 Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 10 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.03 · 7th hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
09:00 AM		 LA Surf SC SFV
5th · 4-0-4 · GD +8		 Home
River Ridge Playfields		 ●●●●○ Tough
29%		 2–2 1.04 0.88 Upside
Sun Oct 25
09:00 AM		 TFA-SGV
12th · 1-3-4 · GD -12		 Home
River Ridge Playfields		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
57%		 3–2 1.89 0.99 Swing game
Sun Nov 1
10:45 AM		 FC Man United
7th · 3-1-3 · GD -1		 Away
Walnut Ranch Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
29%		 1–2 1.04 1.00 Upside
Sun Nov 8
12:00 AM		 Valley United Soccer Club
6th · 3-1-3 · GD +3		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●○ Tough
26%		 1–2 0.96 0.99 Upside
Sat Nov 14
09:00 AM		 Oaks FC 2
1st · 7-1-0 · GD +23		 Home
River Ridge Playfields		 ●●●●● Very tough
9%		 1–3 0.39 0.94 Upside
Sun Nov 15
03:50 PM		 LA Surf SC SFV
5th · 4-0-4 · GD +8		 Away
Moorpark HS · turf?		 ●●●●● Very tough
20%		 1–3 0.75 0.93 Upside
Sun Mar 7
12:00 AM		 Central Coast Surf Soccer
3rd · 5-0-1 · GD +17		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
7%		 1–3 0.31 0.88 Upside
Sat Mar 13
12:00 AM		 Dynamo
10th · 2-1-4 · GD -6		 Home
TBD		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
50%		 2–1 1.70 0.94 Swing game
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM		 ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2)
9th · 2-1-3 · GD +0		 Home
TBD		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
42%		 2–2 1.44 0.97 Swing game
Sun Mar 21
12:00 AM		 Unico Futbol Club
4th · 3-1-2 · GD +2		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●○ Tough
29%		 1–2 1.05 0.97 Upside
Sun Apr 4
12:00 AM		 Central Coast United Soccer Club
2nd · 6-0-1 · GD +16		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
15%		 1–3 0.61 0.95 Upside
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM		 Central Cal Aztecs 2
8th · 3-1-3 · GD -6		 Home
TBD		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
52%		 2–1 1.75 1.00 Swing game
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM		 ALBION SC SCV
13th · 0-0-8 · GD -40		 Away
TBD		 ●○○○○ Favorable
81%		 4–1 2.52 1.07 Bank it
Sun Apr 18
12:00 AM		 TFA-SGV
12th · 1-3-4 · GD -12		 Away
TBD		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
46%		 2–2 1.56 1.10 Swing game
Sun Apr 25
12:00 AM		 FC Man United
7th · 3-1-3 · GD -1		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●○ Tough
38%		 2–2 1.35 1.11 Upside
Sun May 2
12:00 AM		 Valley United Soccer Club
6th · 3-1-3 · GD +3		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●○ Tough
36%		 2–2 1.26 1.11 Upside
Tue May 25
12:00 AM		 Unico Futbol Club
4th · 3-1-2 · GD +2		 Home
River Ridge Playfields		 ●●●●○ Tough
38%		 2–2 1.34 1.12 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Oaks FC 2 8710 274+23 222.75 WWWWW -0.36 -0.01 100% 1.5
2 Central Coast United Soccer Club 7601 237+16 182.57 WLWWW -0.26 -0.02 100% 2.5
3 Central Coast Surf Soccer 6501 214+17 152.50 WWWWL -0.08 -0.13 100% 2.0
4 Unico Futbol Club 6312 1210+2 101.67 DWWLW -0.61 +0.20 13% 6.8
5 LA Surf SC SFV 8404 2315+8 121.50 WWWLL -0.19 +0.06 46% 5.1
6 Valley United Soccer Club 7313 1714+3 101.43 WWLWD -0.43 +0.14 16% 6.5
7 FC Man United 7313 1314-1 101.43 DLLWW +0.33 -0.14 19% 6.2
8 Central Cal Aztecs 2 7313 814-6 101.43 DWLWL +0.08 +0.06 1% 9.3
9 ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2) 6213 1414+0 71.17 DLWLL -0.38 +0.15 4% 8.2
10 Dynamo 7214 915-6 71.00 LLWLW +0.26 +0.00 1% 9.9
11 Oxnard United Soccer Club 7205 1519-4 60.86 LLLLW +0.01 +0.03 2% 9.1
12 TFA-SGV 8134 1325-12 60.75 LLLWD +0.45 -0.09 0% 10.9
13 ALBION SC SCV 8008 848-40 00.00 LLLLL +0.58 +0.12 0% 13.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.13 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.