TableChase Clubs

LAIFC

Elite Academy League · Southwest (North) U19 · 15 teams · LAIFC (all teams)

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5th
2-0-1 record · 3 played
2.00 points per game
+9 goal diff · 13–4
WWLlast 3
78% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.0
-0.01 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 10:45 AM

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LAIFC
5th · 2.00 PPG
vs
ALBION SC Santa Monica
14th · 0.00 PPG

Silverlakes Sports Complex, Field 4 ↗

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 4–1 (expected goals 4.5 for, 1.6 against · 2.61 expected points)

Season so farLAIFCALBION SC Santa Monica
Position5th14th
Record (W-D-L)2-0-10-0-2
Points per game2.000.00
Goals for / game4.31.5
Goals against / game1.34.0
Clean sheets10
Held scoreless01
Form (recent first)L W WL L
Biggest win9–0 at LA Surf Futures—
Worst loss2–3 vs Central Cal Aztecs0–3 at City SC Los Angeles
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.43-0.89
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.01+0.39

Game plan

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    ALBION SC Santa Monica concede 4.0/game; worst result 0–3 at City SC Los Angeles.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 84% chance; likely score 4–1.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the ALBION SC Santa Monica game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (LAIFC – ALBION SC Santa Monica) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.25 PPG
5th— holds 4th▲ up 1 6th▼ down 1
Win
2.25 PPG
5th— holds 4th▲ up 1 6th▼ down 1
Draw
1.75 PPG
6th▼ down 1 7th▼ down 2 8th▼ down 3
Loss
1.50 PPG
6th▼ down 1 8th▼ down 3 8th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 4–1 win we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

27% finish 1st
78% top 4
22% below the top 4
3.0 average finish
  1. 1st 27%
  2. 2nd 22%
  3. 3rd 17%
  4. 4th 12%
  5. 5th 9%
  6. 6th 6%
  7. 7th 4%
  8. 8th 2%
  9. 9th 1%
  10. 10th <1%
  11. 11th <1%
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.79 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Fram Soccer Club 3.00 (+1.00) 6th (1.79) 36 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
2 Oaks FC 3.00 (+1.00) 5th (1.81) 36 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
3 Rangers FC 2.33 (+0.33) 1st (2.10) 27 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
4 Central Cal Aztecs 2.33 (+0.33) 3rd (2.02) 27 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection

How the results connect

1 chain · 4 teams

Paths of results that link LAIFC to ALBION SC Santa Monica through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us
0 favour them
+9.0 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
9–0 2–4 5–3 LAIFC 5th LA Surf Futures 11th Fram Soccer Club 1st ALBION SC Santa Mon… 14th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

1 chains

Position over the season

7 game days

1st 8th 15th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 17

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.11 · 13th hardest of 15

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
10:45 AM
ALBION SC Santa Monica
14th · 0-0-2 · GD -5
Home
Silverlakes Sports Complex
●○○○○ Favorable
84%
4–1 2.61 2.15 Bank it
Sun Nov 1
09:00 AM
City SC Los Angeles
8th · 1-0-1 · GD +1
Away
Lawndale High School · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up
57%
3–2 1.88 2.10 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
09:45 AM
Rangers FC
3rd · 2-1-0 · GD +5
Home
Silverlakes Sports Complex
●●●○○ Toss-up
45%
2–1 1.56 2.01 Swing game
Sat Mar 6
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Los Angeles
12th · 1-0-3 · GD -3
Away
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
66%
2–1 2.14 2.03 Swing game
Sat Mar 13
12:00 AM
Los Angeles SC
15th · 0-0-1 · GD -6
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
90%
5–1 2.76 2.12 Bank it
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM
LA Surf LC
13th · 0-1-2 · GD -14
Away
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
90%
5–1 2.75 2.19 Bank it
Sat Mar 20
12:00 AM
Oaks FC
2nd · 2-0-0 · GD +3
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
62%
3–1 2.01 2.17 Swing game
Sat Apr 3
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Antelope Valley
7th · 1-0-1 · GD +8
Home
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
48%
2–2 1.61 2.12 Swing game
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM
Total Futbol Academy
10th · 1-0-2 · GD -1
Away
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
65%
3–1 2.11 2.12 Swing game
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM
Fram Soccer Club
1st · 2-0-0 · GD +4
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
64%
3–2 2.06 2.12 Swing game
Sat Apr 24
12:00 AM
AC Brea
6th · 1-1-0 · GD +3
Away
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
51%
2–2 1.70 2.09 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Fram Soccer Club 2200 95+4 63.00 WW -1.15 +0.14 36% 5.5
2 Oaks FC 2200 63+3 63.00 WW -0.15 -0.02 37% 5.4
3 Rangers FC 3210 61+5 72.33 DWW +0.58 -0.24 79% 3.0
4 Central Cal Aztecs 3210 52+3 72.33 DWW +0.96 -0.32 69% 3.7
5 LAIFC 3201 134+9 62.00 WWL -0.01 -0.11 78% 3.0
6 AC Brea 2110 63+3 42.00 DW -1.12 +0.16 20% 6.7
7 ALBION SC Antelope Valley 2101 102+8 31.50 WL -0.47 -0.01 60% 4.2
8 City SC Los Angeles 2101 54+1 31.50 WL -0.18 +0.02 11% 7.7
9 FC Golden State Force 3102 64+2 31.00 LLW -0.05 -0.04 11% 7.6
10 Total Futbol Academy 3102 67-1 31.00 LWL -0.43 +0.16 1% 10.1
11 LA Surf Futures 3102 413-9 31.00 LWL +0.54 -0.02 0% 12.4
12 ALBION SC Los Angeles 4103 58-3 30.75 WLLL -0.01 +0.06 1% 10.9
13 LA Surf LC 3012 317-14 10.33 DLL +0.73 -0.01 0% 14.1
14 ALBION SC Santa Monica 2002 38-5 00.00 LL +0.39 +0.01 0% 12.2
15 Los Angeles SC 1001 06-6 00.00 L -0.28 +0.14 0% 13.5

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.31 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.