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AC Brea

Elite Academy League · Southwest (North) U19 · 15 teams · AC Brea (all teams)

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6th
1-1-0 record · 2 played
2.00 points per game
+3 goal diff · 6–3
DWlast 2
19% chance of top 4 · expected finish 6.7
-1.12 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:00 PM

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AC Brea
6th · 2.00 PPG
at
Fram Soccer Club
1st · 3.00 PPG

South High School, Grass Soccer Field ↗ · grass

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.5 for, 2.8 against · 1.22 expected points)

Season so farAC BreaFram Soccer Club
Position6th1st
Record (W-D-L)1-1-02-0-0
Points per game2.003.00
Goals for / game3.04.5
Goals against / game1.52.5
Clean sheets10
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)W DW W
Biggest win3–0 at Total Futbol Academy5–3 at ALBION SC Santa Monica
Worst loss——
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.46+0.61
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-1.12-1.15

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Fram Soccer Club score 4.5/game — well above the league's 2.3.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 35%; a draw (18%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Grass field
    Venue listed as "Grass Soccer Field" at South High School.

    If the team trains on turf: the ball will be slower and bounce less true. Weight passes harder, favour early crosses in the final third, and bring FG/SG cleats. Warm up on the field, not the track.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 01:00 PM at South High School.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    LAIFC sit 5th on 2.00 PPG; we are on 2.00.

    A point moves us above LAIFC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Fram Soccer Club game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (AC Brea – Fram Soccer Club) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 1.67 PPG
6th— holds 8th▼ down 2 8th▼ down 2
Win
2.33 PPG
3rd▲ up 3 3rd▲ up 3 4th▲ up 2
Draw
1.67 PPG
6th— holds 8th▼ down 2 8th▼ down 2
Loss
1.33 PPG
8th▼ down 2 9th▼ down 3 13th▼ down 7

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–2 draw we finish as high as 4th if every rival drops points, and as low as 8th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

3% finish 1st
19% top 4
81% below the top 4
6.7 average finish
  1. 1st 3%
  2. 2nd 4%
  3. 3rd 6%
  4. 4th 8%
  5. 5th 11%
  6. 6th 14%
  7. 7th 16%
  8. 8th 17%
  9. 9th 12%
  10. 10th 7%
  11. 11th 3%
  12. 12th 1%
  13. 13th <1%
  14. 14th <1%
  15. 15th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.86 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Fram Soccer Club 3.00 (+1.00) 6th (1.79) 38 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
2 Oaks FC 3.00 (+1.00) 5th (1.81) 38 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
3 Rangers FC 2.33 (+0.33) 1st (2.10) A point next game
4 Central Cal Aztecs 2.33 (+0.33) 3rd (2.02) A point next game
5 LAIFC 2.00 (+0.00) 2nd (2.09) A point next game

Position over the season

7 game days

1st 8th 15th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 17

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.16 · 1st hardest of 15

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
01:00 PM
Fram Soccer Club
1st · 2-0-0 · GD +4
Away
South High School · grass
●●●●○ Tough
35%
2–2 1.22 1.74 Upside
Sat Nov 7
01:30 PM
ALBION SC Santa Monica
14th · 0-0-2 · GD -5
Home
Whittier College · turf?
●●○○○ Lean win
70%
3–1 2.24 1.87 Bank it
Sat Nov 21
09:00 AM
Oaks FC
2nd · 2-0-0 · GD +3
Home
Whittier College · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up
45%
2–2 1.55 1.80 Swing game
Sun Nov 22
02:00 PM
Rangers FC
3rd · 2-1-0 · GD +5
Away
Fullerton College · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
24%
1–2 0.92 1.65 Upside
Sat Mar 6
12:00 AM
City SC Los Angeles
8th · 1-0-1 · GD +1
Home
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
51%
2–1 1.73 1.67 Swing game
Sat Mar 13
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Los Angeles
12th · 1-0-3 · GD -3
Away
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
50%
2–1 1.72 1.67 Swing game
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Antelope Valley
7th · 1-0-1 · GD +8
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
23%
1–3 0.85 1.58 Upside
Sat Mar 20
12:00 AM
Los Angeles SC
15th · 0-0-1 · GD -6
Away
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
70%
3–1 2.23 1.65 Swing game
Sat Apr 3
12:00 AM
FC Golden State Force
9th · 1-0-2 · GD +2
Home
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
44%
2–1 1.54 1.64 Swing game
Sat Apr 10
11:00 AM
Central Cal Aztecs
4th · 2-1-0 · GD +3
Away
Kaiser Sports Village
●●●●○ Tough
28%
1–2 1.06 1.59 Upside
Sat Apr 24
12:00 AM
LAIFC
5th · 2-0-1 · GD +9
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
31%
2–2 1.12 1.55 Upside
Sat May 22
10:00 AM
LA Surf Futures
11th · 1-0-2 · GD -9
Home
Whittier College · turf?
●○○○○ Favorable
77%
3–1 2.43 1.61 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Fram Soccer Club 2200 95+4 63.00 WW -1.15 +0.14 37% 5.4
2 Oaks FC 2200 63+3 63.00 WW -0.15 -0.02 38% 5.3
3 Rangers FC 3210 61+5 72.33 DWW +0.58 -0.24 79% 3.1
4 Central Cal Aztecs 3210 52+3 72.33 DWW +0.96 -0.32 67% 3.8
5 LAIFC 3201 134+9 62.00 WWL -0.01 -0.11 78% 3.0
6 AC Brea 2110 63+3 42.00 DW -1.12 +0.16 19% 6.7
7 ALBION SC Antelope Valley 2101 102+8 31.50 WL -0.47 -0.01 59% 4.2
8 City SC Los Angeles 2101 54+1 31.50 WL -0.18 +0.02 10% 7.8
9 FC Golden State Force 3102 64+2 31.00 LLW -0.05 -0.04 12% 7.5
10 Total Futbol Academy 3102 67-1 31.00 LWL -0.43 +0.16 1% 10.1
11 LA Surf Futures 3102 413-9 31.00 LWL +0.54 -0.02 0% 12.4
12 ALBION SC Los Angeles 4103 58-3 30.75 WLLL -0.01 +0.06 0% 10.9
13 LA Surf LC 3012 317-14 10.33 DLL +0.73 -0.01 0% 14.1
14 ALBION SC Santa Monica 2002 38-5 00.00 LL +0.39 +0.01 0% 12.2
15 Los Angeles SC 1001 06-6 00.00 L -0.28 +0.14 0% 13.5

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.31 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.