AC Brea
Elite Academy League · Southwest (North) U19 · 15 teams · AC Brea (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:00 PM
South High School, Grass Soccer Field ↗ · grass
●●●●○ Tough to win
Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.5 for, 2.8 against · 1.22 expected points)
| Season so far | AC Brea | Fram Soccer Club |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 6th | 1st |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-1-0 | 2-0-0 |
| Points per game | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| Goals for / game | 3.0 | 4.5 |
| Goals against / game | 1.5 | 2.5 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | W D | W W |
| Biggest win | 3–0 at Total Futbol Academy | 5–3 at ALBION SC Santa Monica |
| Worst loss | — | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.46 | +0.61 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -1.12 | -1.15 |
Game plan
-
Respect their attack
Fram Soccer Club score 4.5/game — well above the league's 2.3.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
-
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 35%; a draw (18%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
-
Grass field
Venue listed as "Grass Soccer Field" at South High School.If the team trains on turf: the ball will be slower and bounce less true. Weight passes harder, favour early crosses in the final third, and bring FG/SG cleats. Warm up on the field, not the track.
-
Away game
Kickoff 01:00 PM at South High School.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
-
What a win does
LAIFC sit 5th on 2.00 PPG; we are on 2.00.A point moves us above LAIFC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Fram Soccer Club game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (AC Brea – Fram Soccer Club) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.67 PPG |
6th— holds | 8th▼ down 2 | 8th▼ down 2 |
| Win 2.33 PPG |
3rd▲ up 3 | 3rd▲ up 3 | 4th▲ up 2 |
| Draw 1.67 PPG |
6th— holds | 8th▼ down 2 | 8th▼ down 2 |
| Loss 1.33 PPG |
8th▼ down 2 | 9th▼ down 3 | 13th▼ down 7 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–2 draw we finish as high as 4th if every rival drops points, and as low as 8th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 3%
- 2nd 4%
- 3rd 6%
- 4th 8%
- 5th 11%
- 6th 14%
- 7th 16%
- 8th 17%
- 9th 12%
- 10th 7%
- 11th 3%
- 12th 1%
- 13th <1%
- 14th <1%
- 15th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.86 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fram Soccer Club | 3.00 (+1.00) | 6th (1.79) | 38 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection |
| 2 | Oaks FC | 3.00 (+1.00) | 5th (1.81) | 38 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection |
| 3 | Rangers FC | 2.33 (+0.33) | 1st (2.10) | A point next game |
| 4 | Central Cal Aztecs | 2.33 (+0.33) | 3rd (2.02) | A point next game |
| 5 | LAIFC | 2.00 (+0.00) | 2nd (2.09) | A point next game |
Position over the season
7 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.16 · 1st hardest of 15
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 01:00 PM |
Fram Soccer Club 1st · 2-0-0 · GD +4 |
Away South High School · grass |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.22 | 1.74 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 01:30 PM |
ALBION SC Santa Monica 14th · 0-0-2 · GD -5 |
Home Whittier College · turf? |
●●○○○ Lean win | 70% |
3–1 | 2.24 | 1.87 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 21 09:00 AM |
Oaks FC 2nd · 2-0-0 · GD +3 |
Home Whittier College · turf? |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 45% |
2–2 | 1.55 | 1.80 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 22 02:00 PM |
Rangers FC 3rd · 2-1-0 · GD +5 |
Away Fullerton College · turf? |
●●●●● Very tough | 24% |
1–2 | 0.92 | 1.65 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 6 12:00 AM |
City SC Los Angeles 8th · 1-0-1 · GD +1 |
Home TBD |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 51% |
2–1 | 1.73 | 1.67 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 13 12:00 AM |
ALBION SC Los Angeles 12th · 1-0-3 · GD -3 |
Away TBD |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 50% |
2–1 | 1.72 | 1.67 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 14 12:00 AM |
ALBION SC Antelope Valley 7th · 1-0-1 · GD +8 |
Away TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 23% |
1–3 | 0.85 | 1.58 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 20 12:00 AM |
Los Angeles SC 15th · 0-0-1 · GD -6 |
Away TBD |
●●○○○ Lean win | 70% |
3–1 | 2.23 | 1.65 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 3 12:00 AM |
FC Golden State Force 9th · 1-0-2 · GD +2 |
Home TBD |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 44% |
2–1 | 1.54 | 1.64 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 10 11:00 AM |
Central Cal Aztecs 4th · 2-1-0 · GD +3 |
Away Kaiser Sports Village |
●●●●○ Tough | 28% |
1–2 | 1.06 | 1.59 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 12:00 AM |
LAIFC 5th · 2-0-1 · GD +9 |
Home TBD |
●●●●○ Tough | 31% |
2–2 | 1.12 | 1.55 | Upside |
| Sat May 22 10:00 AM |
LA Surf Futures 11th · 1-0-2 · GD -9 |
Home Whittier College · turf? |
●○○○○ Favorable | 77% |
3–1 | 2.43 | 1.61 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fram Soccer Club | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 6 | 3.00 | WW | -1.15 | +0.14 | 37% | 5.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs AC Brea · Sat Oct 31 vs ALBION SC Antelope Valley · Sat Mar 6 at FC Golden State Force See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | Oaks FC | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 6 | 3.00 | WW | -0.15 | -0.02 | 38% | 5.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at ALBION SC Antelope Valley · Sun Oct 25 at ALBION SC Santa Monica · Sun Nov 1 at FC Golden State Force See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | Rangers FC | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 1 | +5 | 7 | 2.33 | DWW | +0.58 | -0.24 | 79% | 3.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 at LAIFC · Sun Nov 8 vs Los Angeles SC · Sun Nov 22 vs AC Brea See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | Central Cal Aztecs | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 7 | 2.33 | DWW | +0.96 | -0.32 | 67% | 3.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs LA Surf LC · Sat Oct 31 vs ALBION SC Santa Monica · Sat Nov 7 vs ALBION SC Los Angeles See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | LAIFC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 4 | +9 | 6 | 2.00 | WWL | -0.01 | -0.11 | 78% | 3.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs ALBION SC Santa Monica · Sun Nov 1 at City SC Los Angeles · Sat Nov 7 vs Rangers FC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | AC Brea | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 4 | 2.00 | DW | -1.12 | +0.16 | 19% | 6.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Fram Soccer Club · Sat Nov 7 vs ALBION SC Santa Monica · Sat Nov 21 vs Oaks FC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | ALBION SC Antelope Valley | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 2 | +8 | 3 | 1.50 | WL | -0.47 | -0.01 | 59% | 4.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Oaks FC · Sat Oct 31 at Fram Soccer Club · Sun Nov 8 at FC Golden State Force See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8 | City SC Los Angeles | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 3 | 1.50 | WL | -0.18 | +0.02 | 10% | 7.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Total Futbol Academy · Sun Nov 1 vs LAIFC · Sat Nov 7 at LA Surf LC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 9 | FC Golden State Force | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 3 | 1.00 | LLW | -0.05 | -0.04 | 12% | 7.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs LA Surf Futures · Sat Oct 31 at ALBION SC Los Angeles · Sun Nov 1 vs Oaks FC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 10 | Total Futbol Academy | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 3 | 1.00 | LWL | -0.43 | +0.16 | 1% | 10.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at City SC Los Angeles · Sat Oct 31 vs LA Surf LC · Sat Nov 7 at LA Surf Futures See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 11 | LA Surf Futures | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 3 | 1.00 | LWL | +0.54 | -0.02 | 0% | 12.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at FC Golden State Force · Sat Nov 7 vs Total Futbol Academy · Sat Mar 6 at Central Cal Aztecs See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 12 | ALBION SC Los Angeles | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 3 | 0.75 | WLLL | -0.01 | +0.06 | 0% | 10.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Los Angeles SC · Sat Oct 31 vs FC Golden State Force · Sat Nov 7 at Central Cal Aztecs See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 13 | LA Surf LC | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 17 | -14 | 1 | 0.33 | DLL | +0.73 | -0.01 | 0% | 14.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Central Cal Aztecs · Sat Oct 31 at Total Futbol Academy · Sat Nov 7 vs City SC Los Angeles See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 14 | ALBION SC Santa Monica | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 0 | 0.00 | LL | +0.39 | +0.01 | 0% | 12.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at LAIFC · Sun Oct 25 vs Oaks FC · Sat Oct 31 at Central Cal Aztecs See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 15 | Los Angeles SC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 0 | 0.00 | L | -0.28 | +0.14 | 0% | 13.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at ALBION SC Los Angeles · Sat Nov 7 vs Oaks FC · Sun Nov 8 at Rangers FC See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.31 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.