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Total Futbol Academy

Elite Academy League · Southwest (North) U17 · 15 teams · Total Futbol Academy (all teams)

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5th
2-1-0 record · 3 played
2.33 points per game
+2 goal diff · 6–4
WWDlast 3
48% chance of top 4 · expected finish 5.0
-0.13 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 06:15 PM

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Total Futbol Academy
5th · 2.33 PPG
at
City SC Los Angeles
7th · 1.50 PPG

Lawndale High School, Stadium Field ↗ · turf?

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.1 for, 2.2 against · 1.35 expected points)

Season so farTotal Futbol AcademyCity SC Los Angeles
Position5th7th
Record (W-D-L)2-1-01-0-1
Points per game2.331.50
Goals for / game2.03.0
Goals against / game1.32.5
Clean sheets00
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)D W WW L
Biggest win2–1 at ALBION SC Los Angeles5–3 at Oaks FC
Worst loss—1–2 vs ALBION SC Santa Monica
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.32+0.18
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.13+0.00

Game plan

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 38%; a draw (20%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 06:15 PM at Lawndale High School.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    LA Surf Futures sit 4th on 2.33 PPG; we are on 2.33.

    A point moves us above LA Surf Futures on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the City SC Los Angeles game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Total Futbol Academy – City SC Los Angeles) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 2.00 PPG
5th— holds 5th— holds 6th▼ down 1
Win
2.50 PPG
4th▲ up 1 4th▲ up 1 5th— holds
Draw
2.00 PPG
5th— holds 5th— holds 6th▼ down 1
Loss
1.75 PPG
7th▼ down 2 6th▼ down 1 7th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–2 draw we finish as high as 3rd if every rival drops points, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

2% finish 1st
48% top 4
52% below the top 4
5.0 average finish
  1. 1st 2%
  2. 2nd 8%
  3. 3rd 18%
  4. 4th 21%
  5. 5th 18%
  6. 6th 11%
  7. 7th 9%
  8. 8th 6%
  9. 9th 3%
  10. 10th 2%
  11. 11th 1%
  12. 12th 1%
  13. 13th <1%
  14. 14th <1%
  15. 15th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.86 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Central Cal Aztecs 3.00 (+0.67) 1st (2.52) 35 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
2 ALBION SC Santa Monica 3.00 (+0.67) 2nd (2.18) 35 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
3 ALBION SC Antelope Valley 3.00 (+0.67) 3rd (1.91) 35 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
4 LA Surf Futures 2.33 (+0.00) 5th (1.63) A point next game

How the results connect

1 chain · 4 teams

Paths of results that link Total Futbol Academy to City SC Los Angeles through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us
0 favour them
+3.0 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–1 5–1 3–5 Total Futbol Academy 5th ALBION SC Los Angel… 10th Oaks FC 14th City SC Los Angeles 7th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

1 chains

Position over the season

7 game days

1st 8th 15th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 17

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.01 · 6th hardest of 15

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
06:15 PM
City SC Los Angeles
7th · 1-0-1 · GD +1
Away
Lawndale High School · turf?
●●●●○ Tough
38%
2–2 1.35 2.09 Upside
Sun Nov 1
10:45 AM
LA Surf LC
8th · 1-0-2 · GD -1
Home
Don Bosco Tech · turf
●●●○○ Toss-up
52%
2–1 1.77 2.02 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
03:30 PM
LA Surf Futures
4th · 2-1-0 · GD +3
Away
Silverlakes in Norco
●●●●○ Tough
33%
1–1 1.24 1.89 Upside
Sat Mar 6
12:00 AM
Rangers FC
9th · 1-0-2 · GD -6
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
64%
3–1 2.09 1.92 Swing game
Sat Mar 13
12:00 AM
FC Golden State Force
6th · 2-0-1 · GD -1
Home
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
53%
2–1 1.78 1.90 Swing game
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Santa Monica
2nd · 2-0-0 · GD +7
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
28%
1–2 1.05 1.81 Upside
Sat Mar 20
01:00 PM
Fram Soccer Club
11th · 0-2-1 · GD -6
Away
South High School · grass
●●●○○ Toss-up
57%
2–1 1.91 1.82 Swing game
Sat Apr 3
12:00 AM
Oaks FC
14th · 0-0-2 · GD -6
Away
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
62%
3–1 2.03 1.84 Swing game
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM
LAIFC
15th · 0-0-3 · GD -10
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
77%
3–1 2.43 1.89 Bank it
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Antelope Valley
3rd · 2-0-0 · GD +5
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
40%
2–2 1.38 1.85 Upside
Sat Apr 24
12:00 AM
Central Cal Aztecs
1st · 3-0-0 · GD +14
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
17%
1–2 0.69 1.77 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Central Cal Aztecs 3300 151+14 93.00 WWW -0.81 +0.03 99% 1.3
2 ALBION SC Santa Monica 2200 81+7 63.00 WW -0.36 -0.04 92% 2.5
3 ALBION SC Antelope Valley 2200 105+5 63.00 WW -0.44 +0.00 70% 3.9
4 LA Surf Futures 3210 52+3 72.33 WWD -0.80 +0.20 33% 5.9
5 Total Futbol Academy 3210 64+2 72.33 WWD -0.13 +0.01 48% 5.0
6 FC Golden State Force 3201 67-1 62.00 LWW +0.06 -0.02 18% 7.0
7 City SC Los Angeles 2101 65+1 31.50 LW +0.00 -0.01 23% 6.7
8 LA Surf LC 3102 45-1 31.00 WLL +0.19 -0.04 5% 8.9
9 Rangers FC 3102 713-6 31.00 LWL +0.95 -0.20 3% 10.0
10 ALBION SC Los Angeles 4103 88+0 30.75 LLLW -0.38 +0.14 3% 9.4
11 Fram Soccer Club 3021 28-6 20.67 DLD +0.45 -0.03 0% 12.4
12 Los Angeles SC 2011 23-1 10.50 DL -0.27 +0.07 2% 10.1
13 AC Brea 2011 12-1 10.50 LD +0.11 +0.00 4% 9.5
14 Oaks FC 2002 410-6 00.00 LL +0.08 +0.10 0% 13.3
15 LAIFC 3003 212-10 00.00 LLL +0.81 -0.06 0% 14.1

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.15 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.