TableChase Clubs

ALBION SC Los Angeles

Elite Academy League · Southwest (North) U17 · 15 teams · ALBION SC Los Angeles (all teams)

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10th
1-0-3 record · 4 played
0.75 points per game
+0 goal diff · 8–8
LLLWlast 4
2% chance of top 4 · expected finish 9.5
-0.38 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 10:15 AM

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ALBION SC Los Angeles
10th · 0.75 PPG
vs
Los Angeles SC
12th · 0.50 PPG

Cantwell-Sacred Heart of Mary High School, Cantwell Stadium ↗ · turf?

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 2.0 for, 1.6 against · 1.66 expected points)

Season so farALBION SC Los AngelesLos Angeles SC
Position10th12th
Record (W-D-L)1-0-30-1-1
Points per game0.750.50
Goals for / game2.01.0
Goals against / game2.01.5
Clean sheets01
Held scoreless11
Form (recent first)W L L LL D
Biggest win5–1 at Oaks FC—
Worst loss2–4 at Rangers FC2–3 vs Total Futbol Academy
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.01-0.23
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.38-0.27

Common opponents: Total Futbol Academy — we 1–2; they 2–3.

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    Los Angeles SC average 1.0 goals/game (league avg 2.2); blanked in 1 of 2.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–1 at LA Surf Futures.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 48% / draw 22% / loss 30%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • What a win does
    Rangers FC sit 9th on 1.00 PPG; we are on 0.75.

    A point moves us above Rangers FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Los Angeles SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (ALBION SC Los Angeles – Los Angeles SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 0.80 PPG
10th— holds 9th▲ up 1 13th▼ down 3
Win
1.20 PPG
8th▲ up 2 8th▲ up 2 12th▼ down 2
Draw
0.80 PPG
10th— holds 9th▲ up 1 13th▼ down 3
Loss
0.60 PPG
12th▼ down 2 13th▼ down 3 15th▼ down 5

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 9th if every rival drops points, and as low as 13th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
2% top 4
98% below the top 4
9.5 average finish
  1. 1st <1%
  2. 2nd <1%
  3. 3rd 1%
  4. 4th 2%
  5. 5th 4%
  6. 6th 6%
  7. 7th 9%
  8. 8th 13%
  9. 9th 14%
  10. 10th 14%
  11. 11th 14%
  12. 12th 12%
  13. 13th 7%
  14. 14th 3%
  15. 15th 1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.36 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Central Cal Aztecs 3.00 (+2.25) 1st (2.52) 39 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 ALBION SC Santa Monica 3.00 (+2.25) 2nd (2.18) 39 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection
3 ALBION SC Antelope Valley 3.00 (+2.25) 3rd (1.91) 39 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
4 LA Surf Futures 2.33 (+1.58) 5th (1.63) 30 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
5 Total Futbol Academy 2.33 (+1.58) 4th (1.77) 30 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
6 FC Golden State Force 2.00 (+1.25) 7th (1.51) 25 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
7 City SC Los Angeles 1.50 (+0.75) 6th (1.54) 18 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
8 LA Surf LC 1.00 (+0.25) 8th (1.28) A point next game
9 Rangers FC 1.00 (+0.25) 11th (1.17) A point next game

How the results connect

2 chains · 5 teams

Paths of results that link ALBION SC Los Angeles to Los Angeles SC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us
1 even
1 favour them
-0.5 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–2 3–2 0–1 2–2 0–0 ALBION SC Los Angel… 10th Total Futbol Academy 5th LA Surf Futures 4th Fram Soccer Club 11th Los Angeles SC 12th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

2 chains

Position over the season

7 game days

1st 8th 15th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 17

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.14 · 2nd hardest of 15

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
10:15 AM
Los Angeles SC
12th · 0-1-1 · GD -1
Home
Cantwell-Sacred Heart of Mary High School · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up
48%
1–1 1.66 0.93 Swing game
Sat Oct 31
10:15 AM
FC Golden State Force
6th · 2-0-1 · GD -1
Home
Cantwell-Sacred Heart of Mary High School · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up
47%
2–1 1.60 1.04 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
09:00 AM
Central Cal Aztecs
1st · 3-0-0 · GD +14
Away
Kaiser Sports Village
●●●●● Very tough
8%
1–3 0.36 0.95 Upside
Sat Mar 6
12:00 AM
LAIFC
15th · 0-0-3 · GD -10
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
72%
3–1 2.31 1.12 Bank it
Sat Mar 13
12:00 AM
AC Brea
13th · 0-1-1 · GD -1
Home
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
45%
1–1 1.59 1.17 Swing game
Sat Mar 20
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Santa Monica
2nd · 2-0-0 · GD +7
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
16%
1–2 0.63 1.12 Upside
Sat Apr 3
12:00 AM
LA Surf LC
8th · 1-0-2 · GD -1
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
37%
1–1 1.33 1.14 Upside
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM
Fram Soccer Club
11th · 0-2-1 · GD -6
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
61%
2–1 2.02 1.21 Swing game
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM
City SC Los Angeles
7th · 1-0-1 · GD +1
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
32%
2–2 1.15 1.20 Upside
Sat Apr 24
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Antelope Valley
3rd · 2-0-0 · GD +5
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
33%
2–2 1.16 1.20 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Central Cal Aztecs 3300 151+14 93.00 WWW -0.81 +0.03 99% 1.3
2 ALBION SC Santa Monica 2200 81+7 63.00 WW -0.36 -0.04 93% 2.5
3 ALBION SC Antelope Valley 2200 105+5 63.00 WW -0.44 +0.00 70% 3.9
4 LA Surf Futures 3210 52+3 72.33 WWD -0.80 +0.20 31% 5.9
5 Total Futbol Academy 3210 64+2 72.33 WWD -0.13 +0.01 49% 5.0
6 FC Golden State Force 3201 67-1 62.00 LWW +0.06 -0.02 18% 7.1
7 City SC Los Angeles 2101 65+1 31.50 LW +0.00 -0.01 24% 6.6
8 LA Surf LC 3102 45-1 31.00 WLL +0.19 -0.04 5% 8.9
9 Rangers FC 3102 713-6 31.00 LWL +0.95 -0.20 2% 10.0
10 ALBION SC Los Angeles 4103 88+0 30.75 LLLW -0.38 +0.14 2% 9.5
11 Fram Soccer Club 3021 28-6 20.67 DLD +0.45 -0.03 0% 12.3
12 Los Angeles SC 2011 23-1 10.50 DL -0.27 +0.07 2% 10.1
13 AC Brea 2011 12-1 10.50 LD +0.11 +0.00 4% 9.5
14 Oaks FC 2002 410-6 00.00 LL +0.08 +0.10 0% 13.3
15 LAIFC 3003 212-10 00.00 LLL +0.81 -0.06 0% 14.1

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.15 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.