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FC Golden State Force

Elite Academy League · Southwest (North) U17 · 15 teams · FC Golden State Force (all teams)

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6th
2-0-1 record · 3 played
2.00 points per game
-1 goal diff · 6–7
LWWlast 3
19% chance of top 4 · expected finish 6.9
+0.06 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 01:15 PM

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FC Golden State Force
6th · 2.00 PPG
vs
LA Surf Futures
4th · 2.33 PPG

Bell Gardens High School, Stadium ↗ · turf?

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.6 for, 1.8 against · 1.29 expected points)

Season so farFC Golden State ForceLA Surf Futures
Position6th4th
Record (W-D-L)2-0-12-1-0
Points per game2.002.33
Goals for / game2.01.7
Goals against / game2.30.7
Clean sheets02
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)W W LD W W
Biggest win3–2 at LAIFC2–0 vs LAIFC
Worst loss1–4 vs Central Cal Aztecs—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.10+0.29
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.06-0.80

Common opponents: LAIFC — we 3–2; they 2–0.

Game plan

  • Hard to break down
    LA Surf Futures concede only 0.7/game with 2 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 36%; a draw (23%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the LA Surf Futures game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC Golden State Force – LA Surf Futures) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 1.75 PPG
6th— holds 6th— holds 7th▼ down 1
Win
2.25 PPG
5th▲ up 1 4th▲ up 2 5th▲ up 1
Draw
1.75 PPG
6th— holds 6th— holds 7th▼ down 1
Loss
1.50 PPG
7th▼ down 1 6th— holds 8th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 5th if every rival drops points, and as low as 7th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
19% top 4
81% below the top 4
6.9 average finish
  1. 1st <1%
  2. 2nd 3%
  3. 3rd 6%
  4. 4th 10%
  5. 5th 14%
  6. 6th 16%
  7. 7th 13%
  8. 8th 11%
  9. 9th 9%
  10. 10th 8%
  11. 11th 5%
  12. 12th 4%
  13. 13th 2%
  14. 14th 1%
  15. 15th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.79 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Central Cal Aztecs 3.00 (+1.00) 1st (2.52) 36 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection
2 ALBION SC Santa Monica 3.00 (+1.00) 2nd (2.18) 36 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
3 ALBION SC Antelope Valley 3.00 (+1.00) 3rd (1.91) 36 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
4 LA Surf Futures 2.33 (+0.33) 5th (1.63) 27 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection
5 Total Futbol Academy 2.33 (+0.33) 4th (1.77) 27 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection

How the results connect

2 chains · 4 teams

Paths of results that link FC Golden State Force to LA Surf Futures through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us
1 favour them
+0.5 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–2 0–2 1–4 7–0 FC Golden State For… 6th LAIFC 15th Central Cal Aztecs 1st LA Surf Futures 4th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

2 chains

Position over the season

7 game days

1st 8th 15th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 17

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.02 · 10th hardest of 15

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
01:15 PM
LA Surf Futures
4th · 2-1-0 · GD +3
Home
Bell Gardens High School · turf?
●●●●○ Tough
36%
1–1 1.29 1.82 Upside
Sat Oct 31
10:15 AM
ALBION SC Los Angeles
10th · 1-0-3 · GD +0
Away
Cantwell-Sacred Heart of Mary High School · turf?
●●●●○ Tough
33%
1–2 1.20 1.70 Upside
Sun Nov 1
05:25 PM
Oaks FC
14th · 0-0-2 · GD -6
Home
Bell Gardens High School · turf?
●●○○○ Lean win
66%
3–2 2.13 1.77 Swing game
Sun Nov 8
05:25 PM
ALBION SC Antelope Valley
3rd · 2-0-0 · GD +5
Home
Bell Gardens High School · turf?
●●●●○ Tough
31%
2–3 1.10 1.67 Upside
Sat Mar 6
12:00 AM
Fram Soccer Club
11th · 0-2-1 · GD -6
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
61%
2–1 2.00 1.72 Swing game
Sat Mar 13
12:00 AM
Total Futbol Academy
5th · 2-1-0 · GD +2
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
28%
1–2 1.02 1.64 Upside
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM
Rangers FC
9th · 1-0-2 · GD -6
Home
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
57%
3–2 1.87 1.66 Swing game
Sat Apr 3
12:00 AM
AC Brea
13th · 0-1-1 · GD -1
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
35%
1–1 1.29 1.63 Upside
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Santa Monica
2nd · 2-0-0 · GD +7
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
21%
1–2 0.81 1.56 Upside
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM
Los Angeles SC
12th · 0-1-1 · GD -1
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
37%
1–1 1.34 1.54 Upside
Sat Apr 24
12:00 AM
City SC Los Angeles
7th · 1-0-1 · GD +1
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
30%
2–2 1.09 1.51 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Central Cal Aztecs 3300 151+14 93.00 WWW -0.81 +0.03 100% 1.3
2 ALBION SC Santa Monica 2200 81+7 63.00 WW -0.36 -0.04 92% 2.6
3 ALBION SC Antelope Valley 2200 105+5 63.00 WW -0.44 +0.00 70% 4.0
4 LA Surf Futures 3210 52+3 72.33 WWD -0.80 +0.20 30% 6.1
5 Total Futbol Academy 3210 64+2 72.33 WWD -0.13 +0.01 50% 4.8
6 FC Golden State Force 3201 67-1 62.00 LWW +0.06 -0.02 19% 6.9
7 City SC Los Angeles 2101 65+1 31.50 LW +0.00 -0.01 23% 6.7
8 LA Surf LC 3102 45-1 31.00 WLL +0.19 -0.04 4% 9.0
9 Rangers FC 3102 713-6 31.00 LWL +0.95 -0.20 2% 10.1
10 ALBION SC Los Angeles 4103 88+0 30.75 LLLW -0.38 +0.14 3% 9.4
11 Fram Soccer Club 3021 28-6 20.67 DLD +0.45 -0.03 0% 12.3
12 Los Angeles SC 2011 23-1 10.50 DL -0.27 +0.07 2% 10.0
13 AC Brea 2011 12-1 10.50 LD +0.11 +0.00 4% 9.5
14 Oaks FC 2002 410-6 00.00 LL +0.08 +0.10 0% 13.4
15 LAIFC 3003 212-10 00.00 LLL +0.81 -0.06 0% 14.1

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.15 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.