TableChase Clubs

City SC Los Angeles

Elite Academy League · Southwest (North) U17 · 15 teams · City SC Los Angeles (all teams)

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7th
1-0-1 record · 2 played
1.50 points per game
+1 goal diff · 6–5
LWlast 2
23% chance of top 4 · expected finish 6.7
+0.00 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 06:15 PM

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City SC Los Angeles
7th · 1.50 PPG
vs
Total Futbol Academy
5th · 2.33 PPG

Lawndale High School, Stadium Field ↗ · turf?

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.2 for, 2.1 against · 1.46 expected points)

Season so farCity SC Los AngelesTotal Futbol Academy
Position7th5th
Record (W-D-L)1-0-12-1-0
Points per game1.502.33
Goals for / game3.02.0
Goals against / game2.51.3
Clean sheets00
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)W LD W W
Biggest win5–3 at Oaks FC2–1 at ALBION SC Los Angeles
Worst loss1–2 vs ALBION SC Santa Monica—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.18+0.32
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.00-0.13

Game plan

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 42%; a draw (20%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • What a win does
    FC Golden State Force sit 6th on 2.00 PPG; we are on 1.50.

    A win moves us above FC Golden State Force on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Total Futbol Academy game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (City SC Los Angeles – Total Futbol Academy) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 1.33 PPG
7th— holds 7th— holds 9th▼ down 2
Win
2.00 PPG
5th▲ up 2 5th▲ up 2 6th▲ up 1
Draw
1.33 PPG
7th— holds 7th— holds 9th▼ down 2
Loss
1.00 PPG
7th— holds 7th— holds 13th▼ down 6

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–2 draw we stay 7th even if every rival loses, and as low as 9th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
23% top 4
77% below the top 4
6.7 average finish
  1. 1st <1%
  2. 2nd 3%
  3. 3rd 8%
  4. 4th 12%
  5. 5th 14%
  6. 6th 16%
  7. 7th 12%
  8. 8th 11%
  9. 9th 9%
  10. 10th 7%
  11. 11th 4%
  12. 12th 3%
  13. 13th 1%
  14. 14th <1%
  15. 15th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.79 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Central Cal Aztecs 3.00 (+1.50) 1st (2.52) 39 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection
2 ALBION SC Santa Monica 3.00 (+1.50) 2nd (2.18) 39 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection
3 ALBION SC Antelope Valley 3.00 (+1.50) 3rd (1.91) 39 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
4 LA Surf Futures 2.33 (+0.83) 5th (1.63) 30 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
5 Total Futbol Academy 2.33 (+0.83) 4th (1.77) 30 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
6 FC Golden State Force 2.00 (+0.50) 7th (1.51) Win next game

How the results connect

1 chain · 4 teams

Paths of results that link City SC Los Angeles to Total Futbol Academy through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us
1 favour them
-3.0 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
5–3 1–5 1–2 City SC Los Angeles 7th Oaks FC 14th ALBION SC Los Angel… 10th Total Futbol Academy 5th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

1 chains

Position over the season

7 game days

1st 8th 15th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 17

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.01 · 9th hardest of 15

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
06:15 PM
Total Futbol Academy
5th · 2-1-0 · GD +2
Home
Lawndale High School · turf?
●●●●○ Tough
42%
2–2 1.46 1.49 Upside
Sun Nov 1
06:15 PM
LAIFC
15th · 0-0-3 · GD -10
Home
Lawndale High School · turf?
●○○○○ Favorable
77%
3–1 2.44 1.72 Bank it
Sat Nov 7
01:45 PM
LA Surf LC
8th · 1-0-2 · GD -1
Away
John Ferraro fields
●●●●○ Tough
41%
2–1 1.43 1.67 Upside
Sat Mar 6
12:00 AM
AC Brea
13th · 0-1-1 · GD -1
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
40%
1–1 1.43 1.63 Upside
Sat Mar 13
12:00 AM
Fram Soccer Club
11th · 0-2-1 · GD -6
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
67%
2–1 2.16 1.70 Swing game
Sun Mar 14
09:00 AM
Central Cal Aztecs
1st · 3-0-0 · GD +14
Away
Kaiser Sports Village
●●●●● Very tough
9%
1–3 0.37 1.54 Upside
Sat Mar 20
12:00 AM
LA Surf Futures
4th · 2-1-0 · GD +3
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
31%
1–2 1.15 1.49 Upside
Sat Apr 3
12:00 AM
Rangers FC
9th · 1-0-2 · GD -6
Away
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
51%
3–2 1.71 1.51 Swing game
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM
Los Angeles SC
12th · 0-1-1 · GD -1
Home
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
53%
2–1 1.78 1.54 Swing game
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Los Angeles
10th · 1-0-3 · GD +0
Home
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
49%
2–2 1.66 1.55 Swing game
Sat Apr 24
12:00 AM
FC Golden State Force
6th · 2-0-1 · GD -1
Home
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
51%
2–2 1.73 1.56 Swing game
Tue May 25
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Antelope Valley
3rd · 2-0-0 · GD +5
Home
Lawndale High School · turf?
●●●●○ Tough
37%
2–3 1.27 1.54 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Central Cal Aztecs 3300 151+14 93.00 WWW -0.81 +0.03 99% 1.3
2 ALBION SC Santa Monica 2200 81+7 63.00 WW -0.36 -0.04 92% 2.5
3 ALBION SC Antelope Valley 2200 105+5 63.00 WW -0.44 +0.00 70% 3.9
4 LA Surf Futures 3210 52+3 72.33 WWD -0.80 +0.20 33% 5.9
5 Total Futbol Academy 3210 64+2 72.33 WWD -0.13 +0.01 48% 5.0
6 FC Golden State Force 3201 67-1 62.00 LWW +0.06 -0.02 18% 7.0
7 City SC Los Angeles 2101 65+1 31.50 LW +0.00 -0.01 23% 6.7
8 LA Surf LC 3102 45-1 31.00 WLL +0.19 -0.04 5% 8.9
9 Rangers FC 3102 713-6 31.00 LWL +0.95 -0.20 3% 10.0
10 ALBION SC Los Angeles 4103 88+0 30.75 LLLW -0.38 +0.14 3% 9.4
11 Fram Soccer Club 3021 28-6 20.67 DLD +0.45 -0.03 0% 12.4
12 Los Angeles SC 2011 23-1 10.50 DL -0.27 +0.07 2% 10.1
13 AC Brea 2011 12-1 10.50 LD +0.11 +0.00 4% 9.5
14 Oaks FC 2002 410-6 00.00 LL +0.08 +0.10 0% 13.3
15 LAIFC 3003 212-10 00.00 LLL +0.81 -0.06 0% 14.1

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.15 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.