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Oaks FC

Elite Academy League · Southwest (North) U17 · 15 teams · Oaks FC (all teams)

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14th
0-0-2 record · 2 played
0.00 points per game
-6 goal diff · 4–10
LLlast 2
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 13.3
+0.08 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 02:15 PM

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Oaks FC
14th · 0.00 PPG
at

The Palmdale Aerospace Academy, Griffin Turf Field ↗ · turf

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 2–5 (expected goals 2.1 for, 5.3 against · 0.34 expected points)

Season so farOaks FCALBION SC Antelope Valley
Position14th3rd
Record (W-D-L)0-0-22-0-0
Points per game0.003.00
Goals for / game2.05.0
Goals against / game5.02.5
Clean sheets00
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)L LW W
Biggest win—7–3 vs Rangers FC
Worst loss1–5 vs ALBION SC Los Angeles—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-1.23+0.86
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.08-0.44

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    ALBION SC Antelope Valley score 5.0/game — well above the league's 2.2.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 9%; a draw (8%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 02:15 PM at The Palmdale Aerospace Academy.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    AC Brea sit 13th on 0.50 PPG; we are on 0.00.

    A point moves us above AC Brea on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the ALBION SC Antelope Valley game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Oaks FC – ALBION SC Antelope Valley) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.00 PPG
14th— holds 14th— holds 15th▼ down 1
Win
1.00 PPG
9th▲ up 5 8th▲ up 6 13th▲ up 1
Draw
0.33 PPG
14th— holds 14th— holds 15th▼ down 1
Loss
0.00 PPG
14th— holds 14th— holds 15th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–5 loss we stay 14th even if every rival loses, and as low as 15th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
13.3 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th <1%
  5. 5th <1%
  6. 6th 1%
  7. 7th 1%
  8. 8th 1%
  9. 9th 2%
  10. 10th 4%
  11. 11th 5%
  12. 12th 9%
  13. 13th 17%
  14. 14th 32%
  15. 15th 28%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.57 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Central Cal Aztecs 3.00 (+3.00) 1st (2.52) 42 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection
2 ALBION SC Santa Monica 3.00 (+3.00) 2nd (2.18) 42 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection
3 ALBION SC Antelope Valley 3.00 (+3.00) 3rd (1.91) 42 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
4 LA Surf Futures 2.33 (+2.33) 5th (1.63) 33 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection
5 Total Futbol Academy 2.33 (+2.33) 4th (1.77) 33 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
6 FC Golden State Force 2.00 (+2.00) 7th (1.51) 28 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
7 City SC Los Angeles 1.50 (+1.50) 6th (1.54) 21 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
8 LA Surf LC 1.00 (+1.00) 8th (1.28) Win next game
9 Rangers FC 1.00 (+1.00) 11th (1.17) Win next game
10 ALBION SC Los Angeles 0.75 (+0.75) 9th (1.20) A point next game
11 Fram Soccer Club 0.67 (+0.67) 13th (0.88) A point next game
12 Los Angeles SC 0.50 (+0.50) 12th (1.13) A point next game
13 AC Brea 0.50 (+0.50) 10th (1.20) A point next game

How the results connect

1 chain · 4 teams

Paths of results that link Oaks FC to ALBION SC Antelope Valley through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us
1 favour them
-10.0 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–5 2–4 3–7 Oaks FC 14th ALBION SC Los Angel… 10th Rangers FC 9th ALBION SC Antelope … 3rd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

1 chains

Position over the season

7 game days

1st 8th 15th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 17

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.10 · 3rd hardest of 15

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
02:15 PM
ALBION SC Antelope Valley
3rd · 2-0-0 · GD +5
Away
The Palmdale Aerospace Academy · turf
●●●●● Very tough
9%
2–5 0.34 0.11 Upside
Sun Oct 25
10:30 AM
ALBION SC Santa Monica
2nd · 2-0-0 · GD +7
Away
John Adams MS
●●●●● Very tough
6%
1–4 0.24 0.14 Upside
Sun Nov 1
05:25 PM
FC Golden State Force
6th · 2-0-1 · GD -1
Away
Bell Gardens High School · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
19%
2–3 0.73 0.26 Upside
Sat Nov 7
11:00 AM
Los Angeles SC
12th · 0-1-1 · GD -1
Away
West Covina High School
●●●●● Very tough
23%
1–2 0.85 0.36 Upside
Sat Nov 21
11:15 AM
AC Brea
13th · 0-1-1 · GD -1
Away
Whittier College · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
22%
1–2 0.83 0.43 Upside
Sat Mar 13
12:00 AM
LA Surf LC
8th · 1-0-2 · GD -1
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
30%
1–2 1.09 0.51 Upside
Sun Mar 14
01:00 PM
Fram Soccer Club
11th · 0-2-1 · GD -6
Away
LA Galaxy Soccer Complex (Toyota Sports Complex)
●●●●○ Tough
35%
2–2 1.23 0.59 Upside
Sat Mar 20
12:00 AM
LAIFC
15th · 0-0-3 · GD -10
Away
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
46%
2–2 1.55 0.69 Swing game
Sat Apr 3
12:00 AM
Total Futbol Academy
5th · 2-1-0 · GD +2
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
22%
1–3 0.81 0.70 Upside
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM
Rangers FC
9th · 1-0-2 · GD -6
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
38%
3–3 1.30 0.75 Upside
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM
Central Cal Aztecs
1st · 3-0-0 · GD +14
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
4%
1–4 0.19 0.70 Upside
Sat Apr 24
12:00 AM
LA Surf Futures
4th · 2-1-0 · GD +3
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
22%
1–2 0.83 0.71 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Central Cal Aztecs 3300 151+14 93.00 WWW -0.81 +0.03 99% 1.3
2 ALBION SC Santa Monica 2200 81+7 63.00 WW -0.36 -0.04 93% 2.5
3 ALBION SC Antelope Valley 2200 105+5 63.00 WW -0.44 +0.00 70% 3.9
4 LA Surf Futures 3210 52+3 72.33 WWD -0.80 +0.20 31% 5.9
5 Total Futbol Academy 3210 64+2 72.33 WWD -0.13 +0.01 49% 5.0
6 FC Golden State Force 3201 67-1 62.00 LWW +0.06 -0.02 18% 7.1
7 City SC Los Angeles 2101 65+1 31.50 LW +0.00 -0.01 24% 6.6
8 LA Surf LC 3102 45-1 31.00 WLL +0.19 -0.04 5% 8.9
9 Rangers FC 3102 713-6 31.00 LWL +0.95 -0.20 2% 10.0
10 ALBION SC Los Angeles 4103 88+0 30.75 LLLW -0.38 +0.14 2% 9.5
11 Fram Soccer Club 3021 28-6 20.67 DLD +0.45 -0.03 0% 12.3
12 Los Angeles SC 2011 23-1 10.50 DL -0.27 +0.07 2% 10.1
13 AC Brea 2011 12-1 10.50 LD +0.11 +0.00 4% 9.5
14 Oaks FC 2002 410-6 00.00 LL +0.08 +0.10 0% 13.3
15 LAIFC 3003 212-10 00.00 LLL +0.81 -0.06 0% 14.1

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.15 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.