TableChase Clubs

Central Cal Aztecs

Elite Academy League · Southwest (North) U17 · 15 teams · Central Cal Aztecs (all teams)

Scores refresh automatically every 2 hours · last pulled 14 minutes ago.
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1st
3-0-0 record · 3 played
3.00 points per game
+14 goal diff · 15–1
WWWlast 3
100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.3
-0.81 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:00 AM

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Central Cal Aztecs
1st · 3.00 PPG
vs
LA Surf LC
8th · 1.00 PPG

Kaiser Sports Village, Field 14 ↗

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 3–0 (expected goals 3.2 for, 1.0 against · 2.53 expected points)

Season so farCentral Cal AztecsLA Surf LC
Position1st8th
Record (W-D-L)3-0-01-0-2
Points per game3.001.00
Goals for / game5.01.3
Goals against / game0.31.7
Clean sheets21
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)W W WL L W
Biggest win7–0 at LAIFC1–0 vs AC Brea
Worst loss—2–3 at ALBION SC Antelope Valley
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+2.11-0.15
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.81+0.19

Common opponents: FC Golden State Force — we 4–1; they 1–2.

Game plan

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 80% chance; likely score 3–0.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the LA Surf LC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Central Cal Aztecs – LA Surf LC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 3.00 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Win
3.00 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Draw
2.50 PPG
3rd▼ down 2 3rd▼ down 2 3rd▼ down 2
Loss
2.25 PPG
5th▼ down 4 3rd▼ down 2 5th▼ down 4

Can we move up this round? No. With a 3–0 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

76% finish 1st
100% top 4
0% below the top 4
1.3 average finish
  1. 1st 76%
  2. 2nd 18%
  3. 3rd 4%
  4. 4th 1%
  5. 5th <1%
  6. 6th <1%
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

3 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link Central Cal Aztecs to LA Surf LC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

3 favour us
0 favour them
+4.0 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
4–1 2–1 4–0 3–7 3–2 7–0 2–3 Central Cal Aztecs 1st FC Golden State For… 6th Rangers FC 9th LAIFC 15th ALBION SC Antelope … 3rd LA Surf LC 8th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

3 chains

Position over the season

7 game days

1st 8th 15th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 17

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.03 · 5th hardest of 15

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
09:00 AM
LA Surf LC
8th · 1-0-2 · GD -1
Home
Kaiser Sports Village
●○○○○ Favorable
80%
3–0 2.53 2.88 Bank it
Sat Oct 31
09:00 AM
ALBION SC Santa Monica
2nd · 2-0-0 · GD +7
Home
Kaiser Sports Village
●●○○○ Lean win
60%
2–1 1.97 2.70 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
09:00 AM
ALBION SC Los Angeles
10th · 1-0-3 · GD +0
Home
Kaiser Sports Village
●○○○○ Favorable
81%
3–1 2.53 2.67 Bank it
Sat Mar 6
09:00 AM
LA Surf Futures
4th · 2-1-0 · GD +3
Home
Kaiser Sports Village
●●○○○ Lean win
71%
2–1 2.30 2.62 Bank it
Sun Mar 14
09:00 AM
City SC Los Angeles
7th · 1-0-1 · GD +1
Home
Kaiser Sports Village
●○○○○ Favorable
81%
3–1 2.52 2.61 Bank it
Sat Mar 20
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Antelope Valley
3rd · 2-0-0 · GD +5
Away
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
65%
3–2 2.11 2.55 Swing game
Sat Apr 3
09:00 AM
Fram Soccer Club
11th · 0-2-1 · GD -6
Away
South High School · grass
●○○○○ Favorable
85%
3–0 2.63 2.56 Bank it
Sat Apr 10
09:00 AM
AC Brea
13th · 0-1-1 · GD -1
Home
Kaiser Sports Village
●○○○○ Favorable
78%
2–0 2.48 2.55 Bank it
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM
Oaks FC
14th · 0-0-2 · GD -6
Away
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
90%
4–1 2.76 2.57 Bank it
Sat Apr 24
12:00 AM
Total Futbol Academy
5th · 2-1-0 · GD +2
Away
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
66%
2–1 2.15 2.54 Swing game
Tue May 25
12:00 AM
Los Angeles SC
12th · 0-1-1 · GD -1
Away
SilverLakes Sports Park
●●○○○ Lean win
74%
2–1 2.37 2.52 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Central Cal Aztecs 3300 151+14 93.00 WWW -0.81 +0.03 100% 1.3
2 ALBION SC Santa Monica 2200 81+7 63.00 WW -0.36 -0.04 92% 2.5
3 ALBION SC Antelope Valley 2200 105+5 63.00 WW -0.44 +0.00 70% 3.9
4 LA Surf Futures 3210 52+3 72.33 WWD -0.80 +0.20 31% 5.9
5 Total Futbol Academy 3210 64+2 72.33 WWD -0.13 +0.01 49% 4.9
6 FC Golden State Force 3201 67-1 62.00 LWW +0.06 -0.02 17% 7.1
7 City SC Los Angeles 2101 65+1 31.50 LW +0.00 -0.01 23% 6.7
8 LA Surf LC 3102 45-1 31.00 WLL +0.19 -0.04 6% 8.8
9 Rangers FC 3102 713-6 31.00 LWL +0.95 -0.20 2% 10.0
10 ALBION SC Los Angeles 4103 88+0 30.75 LLLW -0.38 +0.14 3% 9.4
11 Fram Soccer Club 3021 28-6 20.67 DLD +0.45 -0.03 1% 12.2
12 Los Angeles SC 2011 23-1 10.50 DL -0.27 +0.07 3% 10.1
13 AC Brea 2011 12-1 10.50 LD +0.11 +0.00 4% 9.5
14 Oaks FC 2002 410-6 00.00 LL +0.08 +0.10 0% 13.4
15 LAIFC 3003 212-10 00.00 LLL +0.81 -0.06 0% 14.1

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.15 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.