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Total Futbol Academy

Elite Academy League · Southwest (North) U15 · 15 teams · Total Futbol Academy (all teams)

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1st
3-0-0 record · 3 played
3.00 points per game
+9 goal diff · 10–1
WWWlast 3
98% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.4
-0.05 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 12:45 PM

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Total Futbol Academy
1st · 3.00 PPG
at
City SC Los Angeles
5th · 2.00 PPG

Lawndale High School, Stadium Field ↗ · turf?

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.1 for, 1.6 against · 1.69 expected points)

Season so farTotal Futbol AcademyCity SC Los Angeles
Position1st5th
Record (W-D-L)3-0-01-1-0
Points per game3.002.00
Goals for / game3.33.5
Goals against / game0.31.0
Clean sheets21
Held scoreless01
Form (recent first)W W WW D
Biggest win5–1 at ALBION SC Los Angeles7–2 at Oaks FC
Worst loss——
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.48+0.90
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.05-0.46

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    City SC Los Angeles score 3.5/game — well above the league's 1.8.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 49% / draw 21% / loss 30%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Away game
    Kickoff 12:45 PM at Lawndale High School.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the City SC Los Angeles game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Total Futbol Academy – City SC Los Angeles) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 3.00 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Win
3.00 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Draw
2.50 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Loss
2.25 PPG
4th▼ down 3 5th▼ down 4 4th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–1 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

74% finish 1st
98% top 4
2% below the top 4
1.4 average finish
  1. 1st 74%
  2. 2nd 15%
  3. 3rd 7%
  4. 4th 3%
  5. 5th 1%
  6. 6th <1%
  7. 7th <1%
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

1 chain · 4 teams

Paths of results that link Total Futbol Academy to City SC Los Angeles through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us
1 favour them
-1.0 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
5–1 1–1 2–7 Total Futbol Academy 1st ALBION SC Los Angel… 12th Oaks FC 13th City SC Los Angeles 5th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

1 chains

Position over the season

7 game days

1st 8th 15th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 17

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.11 · 12th hardest of 15

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
12:45 PM
City SC Los Angeles
5th · 1-1-0 · GD +5
Away
Lawndale High School · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up
49%
2–1 1.69 2.67 Swing game
Sun Nov 1
09:00 AM
LA Surf LC
15th · 0-0-3 · GD -13
Home
Don Bosco Tech · turf
●○○○○ Favorable
95%
4–0 2.90 2.72 Bank it
Sat Nov 7
10:15 AM
LA Surf Futures
14th · 0-0-3 · GD -12
Away
Silverlakes in Norco
●○○○○ Favorable
92%
4–0 2.82 2.74 Bank it
Sat Mar 6
12:00 AM
Rangers FC
3rd · 2-1-0 · GD +3
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
60%
2–1 2.00 2.63 Swing game
Sat Mar 13
12:00 AM
FC Golden State Force
4th · 2-0-1 · GD +5
Home
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
58%
2–1 1.94 2.54 Swing game
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Santa Monica
11th · 0-2-0 · GD +0
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
62%
1–0 2.10 2.50 Swing game
Sat Mar 20
09:00 AM
Fram Soccer Club
9th · 1-1-1 · GD +1
Away
South High School · grass
●●○○○ Lean win
61%
2–1 2.04 2.45 Swing game
Sat Apr 3
12:00 AM
Oaks FC
13th · 0-1-1 · GD -5
Away
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
82%
3–1 2.57 2.46 Bank it
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM
LAIFC
10th · 1-0-2 · GD +2
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
73%
2–1 2.32 2.45 Bank it
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Antelope Valley
6th · 1-0-1 · GD +4
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
63%
2–1 2.08 2.42 Swing game
Sat Apr 24
12:00 AM
Central Cal Aztecs
2nd · 2-1-0 · GD +3
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
64%
2–1 2.11 2.40 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Total Futbol Academy 3300 101+9 93.00 WWW -0.05 -0.11 98% 1.4
2 Central Cal Aztecs 3210 85+3 72.33 DWW +0.50 -0.19 63% 4.0
3 Rangers FC 3210 63+3 72.33 DWW +0.31 -0.13 58% 4.4
4 FC Golden State Force 3201 83+5 62.00 LWW -0.45 +0.04 51% 4.8
5 City SC Los Angeles 2110 72+5 42.00 DW -0.46 +0.01 62% 4.2
6 ALBION SC Antelope Valley 2101 62+4 31.50 WL -0.62 +0.08 26% 6.5
7 AC Brea 2101 43+1 31.50 WL -0.09 +0.04 11% 8.1
8 Los Angeles SC 2101 23-1 31.50 WL +0.78 -0.11 10% 8.4
9 Fram Soccer Club 3111 43+1 41.33 LDW -0.76 +0.19 5% 9.2
10 LAIFC 3102 86+2 31.00 WLL -0.09 +0.04 8% 8.5
11 ALBION SC Santa Monica 2020 00+0 21.00 DD +0.47 -0.08 6% 8.8
12 ALBION SC Los Angeles 4112 68-2 41.00 LWLD -0.26 +0.13 1% 10.6
13 Oaks FC 2011 38-5 10.50 LD +0.26 +0.03 0% 12.4
14 LA Surf Futures 3003 113-12 00.00 LLL -0.01 +0.19 0% 14.4
15 LA Surf LC 3003 013-13 00.00 LLL +0.53 +0.05 0% 14.3

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.79 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.