TableChase Clubs

LA Surf LC

Elite Academy League · Southwest (North) U15 · 15 teams · LA Surf LC (all teams)

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15th
0-0-3 record · 3 played
0.00 points per game
-13 goal diff · 0–13
LLLlast 3
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 14.4
+0.53 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:00 PM

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LA Surf LC
15th · 0.00 PPG
at
Central Cal Aztecs
2nd · 2.33 PPG

Kaiser Sports Village, Field 13 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 0–4 (expected goals 0.8 for, 4.1 against · 0.16 expected points)

Season so farLA Surf LCCentral Cal Aztecs
Position15th2nd
Record (W-D-L)0-0-32-1-0
Points per game0.002.33
Goals for / game0.02.7
Goals against / game4.31.7
Clean sheets00
Held scoreless30
Form (recent first)L L LW W D
Biggest win—3–1 at FC Golden State Force
Worst loss0–5 at ALBION SC Antelope Valley—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-2.01+0.64
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.53+0.50

Common opponents: FC Golden State Force — we 0–4; they 3–1.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Central Cal Aztecs score 2.7/game — well above the league's 1.8.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–4 vs AC Brea, 0–5 at ALBION SC Antelope Valley, 0–4 vs FC Golden State Force.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 3%; a draw (6%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 01:00 PM at Kaiser Sports Village.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    LA Surf Futures sit 14th on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.

    A point moves us above LA Surf Futures on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Central Cal Aztecs game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (LA Surf LC – Central Cal Aztecs) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.00 PPG
15th— holds 15th— holds 15th— holds
Win
0.75 PPG
13th▲ up 2 13th▲ up 2 15th— holds
Draw
0.25 PPG
14th▲ up 1 14th▲ up 1 15th— holds
Loss
0.00 PPG
15th— holds 14th▲ up 1 15th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–4 loss we stay 15th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
14.4 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th <1%
  11. 11th <1%
  12. 12th 1%
  13. 13th 6%
  14. 14th 46%
  15. 15th 46%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.36 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Total Futbol Academy 3.00 (+3.00) 1st (2.40) 42 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Central Cal Aztecs 2.33 (+2.33) 2nd (1.92) 33 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
3 Rangers FC 2.33 (+2.33) 3rd (1.89) 33 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
4 FC Golden State Force 2.00 (+2.00) 5th (1.83) 28 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
5 City SC Los Angeles 2.00 (+2.00) 4th (1.89) 28 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
6 ALBION SC Antelope Valley 1.50 (+1.50) 6th (1.60) 21 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection
7 AC Brea 1.50 (+1.50) 7th (1.45) 21 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
8 Los Angeles SC 1.50 (+1.50) 8th (1.40) 21 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
9 Fram Soccer Club 1.33 (+1.33) 11th (1.31) 19 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
10 LAIFC 1.00 (+1.00) 9th (1.38) 14 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
11 ALBION SC Santa Monica 1.00 (+1.00) 10th (1.35) 14 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
12 ALBION SC Los Angeles 1.00 (+1.00) 12th (1.13) 14 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection
13 Oaks FC 0.50 (+0.50) 13th (0.85) A point next game
14 LA Surf Futures 0.00 (+0.00) 15th (0.33) Already ahead

How the results connect

3 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link LA Surf LC to Central Cal Aztecs through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us
3 favour them
-4.7 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–4 1–3 3–0 2–3 0–5 1–2 2–2 LA Surf LC 15th FC Golden State For… 4th ALBION SC Antelope … 6th LAIFC 10th Rangers FC 3rd Central Cal Aztecs 2nd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

3 chains

Position over the season

7 game days

1st 8th 15th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 17

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.05 · 5th hardest of 15

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
01:00 PM
Central Cal Aztecs
2nd · 2-1-0 · GD +3
Away
Kaiser Sports Village
●●●●● Very tough
3%
0–4 0.16 0.04 Upside
Sun Nov 1
09:00 AM
Total Futbol Academy
1st · 3-0-0 · GD +9
Away
Don Bosco Tech · turf
●●●●● Very tough
1%
0–4 0.07 0.05 Upside
Sat Nov 7
03:30 PM
City SC Los Angeles
5th · 1-1-0 · GD +5
Home
silverlakes
●●●●● Very tough
4%
0–3 0.21 0.07 Upside
Sat Mar 6
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Santa Monica
11th · 0-2-0 · GD +0
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
12%
0–1 0.60 0.15 Upside
Sat Mar 13
12:00 AM
Oaks FC
13th · 0-1-1 · GD -5
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
14%
1–2 0.57 0.20 Upside
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM
LAIFC
10th · 1-0-2 · GD +2
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
9%
1–3 0.37 0.22 Upside
Sat Mar 20
12:00 AM
Rangers FC
3rd · 2-1-0 · GD +3
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
6%
0–3 0.31 0.23 Upside
Sat Apr 3
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Los Angeles
12th · 1-1-2 · GD -2
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
14%
1–2 0.61 0.26 Upside
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM
LA Surf Futures
14th · 0-0-3 · GD -12
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
31%
1–1 1.16 0.34 Upside
Sat Apr 24
12:00 AM
Los Angeles SC
8th · 1-0-1 · GD -1
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
8%
0–2 0.39 0.34 Upside
Sun May 23
02:30 PM
Fram Soccer Club
9th · 1-1-1 · GD +1
Home
San Marino High School
●●●●● Very tough
11%
0–2 0.50 0.35 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Total Futbol Academy 3300 101+9 93.00 WWW -0.05 -0.11 98% 1.4
2 Central Cal Aztecs 3210 85+3 72.33 DWW +0.50 -0.19 65% 4.0
3 Rangers FC 3210 63+3 72.33 DWW +0.31 -0.13 60% 4.3
4 FC Golden State Force 3201 83+5 62.00 LWW -0.45 +0.04 52% 4.7
5 City SC Los Angeles 2110 72+5 42.00 DW -0.46 +0.01 61% 4.2
6 ALBION SC Antelope Valley 2101 62+4 31.50 WL -0.62 +0.08 23% 6.5
7 AC Brea 2101 43+1 31.50 WL -0.09 +0.04 13% 7.9
8 Los Angeles SC 2101 23-1 31.50 WL +0.78 -0.11 8% 8.5
9 Fram Soccer Club 3111 43+1 41.33 LDW -0.76 +0.19 5% 9.1
10 LAIFC 3102 86+2 31.00 WLL -0.09 +0.04 9% 8.5
11 ALBION SC Santa Monica 2020 00+0 21.00 DD +0.47 -0.08 6% 8.9
12 ALBION SC Los Angeles 4112 68-2 41.00 LWLD -0.26 +0.13 1% 10.7
13 Oaks FC 2011 38-5 10.50 LD +0.26 +0.03 0% 12.4
14 LA Surf Futures 3003 113-12 00.00 LLL -0.01 +0.19 0% 14.5
15 LA Surf LC 3003 013-13 00.00 LLL +0.53 +0.05 0% 14.4

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.79 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.