TableChase Clubs

ALBION SC Santa Monica

Elite Academy League · Southwest (North) U15 · 15 teams · ALBION SC Santa Monica (all teams)

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11th
0-2-0 record · 2 played
1.00 points per game
+0 goal diff · 0–0
DDlast 2
5% chance of top 4 · expected finish 9.0
+0.47 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:00 AM

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ALBION SC Santa Monica
11th · 1.00 PPG
at
LAIFC
10th · 1.00 PPG

Silverlakes Sports Complex, Field 4 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.1 for, 1.4 against · 1.19 expected points)

Season so farALBION SC Santa MonicaLAIFC
Position11th10th
Record (W-D-L)0-2-01-0-2
Points per game1.001.00
Goals for / game0.02.7
Goals against / game0.02.0
Clean sheets21
Held scoreless21
Form (recent first)D DL L W
Biggest win—6–0 at LA Surf Futures
Worst loss—0–3 vs FC Golden State Force
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.04+0.21
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.47-0.09

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    LAIFC score 2.7/game — well above the league's 1.8.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–0 at City SC Los Angeles, 0–0 vs Fram Soccer Club.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 31%; a draw (27%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 09:00 AM at Silverlakes Sports Complex.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

  • What a win does
    LAIFC sit 10th on 1.00 PPG; we are on 1.00.

    A point moves us above LAIFC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the LAIFC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (ALBION SC Santa Monica – LAIFC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 1.00 PPG
11th— holds 11th— holds 13th▼ down 2
Win
1.67 PPG
6th▲ up 5 6th▲ up 5 10th▲ up 1
Draw
1.00 PPG
11th— holds 11th— holds 13th▼ down 2
Loss
0.67 PPG
12th▼ down 1 12th▼ down 1 15th▼ down 4

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 10th if every rival drops points, and as low as 13th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
5% top 4
95% below the top 4
9.0 average finish
  1. 1st <1%
  2. 2nd 1%
  3. 3rd 2%
  4. 4th 3%
  5. 5th 5%
  6. 6th 8%
  7. 7th 9%
  8. 8th 14%
  9. 9th 13%
  10. 10th 16%
  11. 11th 15%
  12. 12th 11%
  13. 13th 4%
  14. 14th <1%
  15. 15th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.71 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Total Futbol Academy 3.00 (+2.00) 1st (2.40) 40 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection
2 Central Cal Aztecs 2.33 (+1.33) 2nd (1.92) 31 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
3 Rangers FC 2.33 (+1.33) 3rd (1.89) 31 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
4 FC Golden State Force 2.00 (+1.00) 5th (1.83) 26 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
5 City SC Los Angeles 2.00 (+1.00) 4th (1.89) 26 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
6 ALBION SC Antelope Valley 1.50 (+0.50) 6th (1.60) A point next game
7 AC Brea 1.50 (+0.50) 7th (1.45) A point next game
8 Los Angeles SC 1.50 (+0.50) 8th (1.40) A point next game
9 Fram Soccer Club 1.33 (+0.33) 11th (1.31) A point next game
10 LAIFC 1.00 (+0.00) 9th (1.38) A point next game

How the results connect

1 chain · 4 teams

Paths of results that link ALBION SC Santa Monica to LAIFC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us
1 favour them
-4.0 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–0 3–1 0–6 ALBION SC Santa Mon… 11th Fram Soccer Club 9th LA Surf Futures 14th LAIFC 10th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

1 chains

Position over the season

7 game days

1st 8th 15th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 17

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.08 · 11th hardest of 15

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
09:00 AM
LAIFC
10th · 1-0-2 · GD +2
Away
Silverlakes Sports Complex
●●●●○ Tough
31%
1–1 1.19 1.06 Upside
Sun Oct 25
11:55 AM
Oaks FC
13th · 0-1-1 · GD -5
Home
John Adams MS
●●●○○ Toss-up
56%
1–0 1.93 1.28 Swing game
Sat Oct 31
01:00 PM
Central Cal Aztecs
2nd · 2-1-0 · GD +3
Away
Kaiser Sports Village
●●●●○ Tough
25%
0–1 1.01 1.23 Upside
Sat Nov 7
09:00 AM
AC Brea
7th · 1-0-1 · GD +1
Away
Grass - Whittier College · grass
●●●●○ Tough
30%
0–1 1.20 1.22 Upside
Sat Mar 6
12:00 AM
LA Surf LC
15th · 0-0-3 · GD -13
Away
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
65%
1–0 2.18 1.36 Swing game
Sat Mar 13
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Antelope Valley
6th · 1-0-1 · GD +4
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
32%
1–1 1.23 1.34 Upside
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM
Total Futbol Academy
1st · 3-0-0 · GD +9
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
14%
0–1 0.66 1.27 Upside
Sat Mar 20
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Los Angeles
12th · 1-1-2 · GD -2
Home
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
45%
1–0 1.63 1.30 Swing game
Sat Apr 3
12:00 AM
LA Surf Futures
14th · 0-0-3 · GD -12
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
72%
2–0 2.34 1.40 Bank it
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM
FC Golden State Force
4th · 2-0-1 · GD +5
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
22%
0–1 0.93 1.36 Upside
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM
Rangers FC
3rd · 2-1-0 · GD +3
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
24%
0–1 1.01 1.33 Upside
Sat May 15
09:00 AM
Los Angeles SC
8th · 1-0-1 · GD -1
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
40%
1–0 1.52 1.35 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Total Futbol Academy 3300 101+9 93.00 WWW -0.05 -0.11 98% 1.5
2 Central Cal Aztecs 3210 85+3 72.33 DWW +0.50 -0.19 64% 4.0
3 Rangers FC 3210 63+3 72.33 DWW +0.31 -0.13 58% 4.4
4 FC Golden State Force 3201 83+5 62.00 LWW -0.45 +0.04 52% 4.7
5 City SC Los Angeles 2110 72+5 42.00 DW -0.46 +0.01 62% 4.2
6 ALBION SC Antelope Valley 2101 62+4 31.50 WL -0.62 +0.08 25% 6.5
7 AC Brea 2101 43+1 31.50 WL -0.09 +0.04 12% 8.0
8 Los Angeles SC 2101 23-1 31.50 WL +0.78 -0.11 9% 8.5
9 Fram Soccer Club 3111 43+1 41.33 LDW -0.76 +0.19 6% 9.0
10 LAIFC 3102 86+2 31.00 WLL -0.09 +0.04 8% 8.4
11 ALBION SC Santa Monica 2020 00+0 21.00 DD +0.47 -0.08 5% 9.0
12 ALBION SC Los Angeles 4112 68-2 41.00 LWLD -0.26 +0.13 1% 10.6
13 Oaks FC 2011 38-5 10.50 LD +0.26 +0.03 0% 12.4
14 LA Surf Futures 3003 113-12 00.00 LLL -0.01 +0.19 0% 14.4
15 LA Surf LC 3003 013-13 00.00 LLL +0.53 +0.05 0% 14.4

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.79 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.