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Oaks FC

Elite Academy League · Southwest (North) U15 · 15 teams · Oaks FC (all teams)

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13th
0-1-1 record · 2 played
0.50 points per game
-5 goal diff · 3–8
LDlast 2
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 12.4
+0.26 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 10:55 AM

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Oaks FC
13th · 0.50 PPG
at

The Palmdale Aerospace Academy, Griffin Turf Field ↗ · turf

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–3 (expected goals 1.4 for, 3.4 against · 0.48 expected points)

Season so farOaks FCALBION SC Antelope Valley
Position13th6th
Record (W-D-L)0-1-11-0-1
Points per game0.501.50
Goals for / game1.53.0
Goals against / game4.01.0
Clean sheets01
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)D LL W
Biggest win—5–0 vs LA Surf LC
Worst loss2–7 vs City SC Los Angeles1–2 vs Rangers FC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.94+0.59
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.26-0.62

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    ALBION SC Antelope Valley score 3.0/game — well above the league's 1.8.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 12%; a draw (13%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 10:55 AM at The Palmdale Aerospace Academy.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    ALBION SC Los Angeles sit 12th on 1.00 PPG; we are on 0.50.

    A point moves us above ALBION SC Los Angeles on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the ALBION SC Antelope Valley game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Oaks FC – ALBION SC Antelope Valley) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.33 PPG
13th— holds 13th— holds 15th▼ down 2
Win
1.33 PPG
9th▲ up 4 8th▲ up 5 12th▲ up 1
Draw
0.67 PPG
13th— holds 13th— holds 15th▼ down 2
Loss
0.33 PPG
13th— holds 13th— holds 15th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–3 loss we stay 13th even if every rival loses, and as low as 15th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
12.4 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd <1%
  4. 4th
  5. 5th <1%
  6. 6th <1%
  7. 7th 1%
  8. 8th 1%
  9. 9th 3%
  10. 10th 5%
  11. 11th 9%
  12. 12th 20%
  13. 13th 51%
  14. 14th 9%
  15. 15th 2%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.64 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Total Futbol Academy 3.00 (+2.50) 1st (2.40) 41 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection
2 Central Cal Aztecs 2.33 (+1.83) 2nd (1.92) 32 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
3 Rangers FC 2.33 (+1.83) 3rd (1.89) 32 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
4 FC Golden State Force 2.00 (+1.50) 5th (1.83) 27 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
5 City SC Los Angeles 2.00 (+1.50) 4th (1.89) 27 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
6 ALBION SC Antelope Valley 1.50 (+1.00) 6th (1.60) 20 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
7 AC Brea 1.50 (+1.00) 7th (1.45) 20 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
8 Los Angeles SC 1.50 (+1.00) 8th (1.40) 20 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
9 Fram Soccer Club 1.33 (+0.83) 11th (1.31) A point next game
10 LAIFC 1.00 (+0.50) 9th (1.38) A point next game
11 ALBION SC Santa Monica 1.00 (+0.50) 10th (1.35) A point next game
12 ALBION SC Los Angeles 1.00 (+0.50) 12th (1.13) A point next game

How the results connect

1 chain · 4 teams

Paths of results that link Oaks FC to ALBION SC Antelope Valley through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us
1 favour them
-1.0 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–1 0–2 2–1 Oaks FC 13th ALBION SC Los Angel… 12th Rangers FC 3rd ALBION SC Antelope … 6th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

1 chains

Position over the season

7 game days

1st 8th 15th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 17

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.03 · 9th hardest of 15

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
10:55 AM
ALBION SC Antelope Valley
6th · 1-0-1 · GD +4
Away
The Palmdale Aerospace Academy · turf
●●●●● Very tough
12%
1–3 0.48 0.49 Upside
Sun Oct 25
11:55 AM
ALBION SC Santa Monica
11th · 0-2-0 · GD +0
Away
John Adams MS
●●●●● Very tough
20%
0–1 0.84 0.58 Upside
Sun Nov 1
12:05 PM
FC Golden State Force
4th · 2-0-1 · GD +5
Away
Bell Gardens High School · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
10%
1–3 0.41 0.55 Upside
Sat Nov 7
03:00 PM
Los Angeles SC
8th · 1-0-1 · GD -1
Away
West Covina High School
●●●●● Very tough
22%
1–2 0.84 0.60 Upside
Sat Nov 21
09:00 AM
AC Brea
7th · 1-0-1 · GD +1
Away
Grass - Whittier College · grass
●●●●● Very tough
17%
1–2 0.68 0.61 Upside
Sat Mar 13
12:00 AM
LA Surf LC
15th · 0-0-3 · GD -13
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
71%
2–1 2.28 0.82 Bank it
Sun Mar 14
09:00 AM
Fram Soccer Club
9th · 1-1-1 · GD +1
Away
LA Galaxy Soccer Complex (Toyota Sports Complex)
●●●●● Very tough
19%
1–2 0.77 0.81 Upside
Sat Mar 20
12:00 AM
LAIFC
10th · 1-0-2 · GD +2
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
16%
1–3 0.63 0.79 Upside
Sat Apr 3
12:00 AM
Total Futbol Academy
1st · 3-0-0 · GD +9
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
7%
1–3 0.33 0.75 Upside
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM
Rangers FC
3rd · 2-1-0 · GD +3
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
18%
1–2 0.70 0.75 Upside
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM
Central Cal Aztecs
2nd · 2-1-0 · GD +3
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
18%
1–3 0.68 0.74 Upside
Sat Apr 24
12:00 AM
LA Surf Futures
14th · 0-0-3 · GD -12
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
69%
3–1 2.23 0.85 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Total Futbol Academy 3300 101+9 93.00 WWW -0.05 -0.11 98% 1.5
2 Central Cal Aztecs 3210 85+3 72.33 DWW +0.50 -0.19 64% 4.1
3 Rangers FC 3210 63+3 72.33 DWW +0.31 -0.13 57% 4.3
4 FC Golden State Force 3201 83+5 62.00 LWW -0.45 +0.04 53% 4.7
5 City SC Los Angeles 2110 72+5 42.00 DW -0.46 +0.01 64% 4.1
6 ALBION SC Antelope Valley 2101 62+4 31.50 WL -0.62 +0.08 24% 6.6
7 AC Brea 2101 43+1 31.50 WL -0.09 +0.04 13% 7.9
8 Los Angeles SC 2101 23-1 31.50 WL +0.78 -0.11 8% 8.5
9 Fram Soccer Club 3111 43+1 41.33 LDW -0.76 +0.19 4% 9.2
10 LAIFC 3102 86+2 31.00 WLL -0.09 +0.04 9% 8.4
11 ALBION SC Santa Monica 2020 00+0 21.00 DD +0.47 -0.08 6% 8.9
12 ALBION SC Los Angeles 4112 68-2 41.00 LWLD -0.26 +0.13 1% 10.6
13 Oaks FC 2011 38-5 10.50 LD +0.26 +0.03 0% 12.4
14 LA Surf Futures 3003 113-12 00.00 LLL -0.01 +0.19 0% 14.4
15 LA Surf LC 3003 013-13 00.00 LLL +0.53 +0.05 0% 14.4

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.79 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.